Modelling socio-technical transition patterns and pathways

We report on research that is developing a simulation model for assessing systemic innovations, or 'transitions', of societal systems towards a more sustainable development. Our overall aim is to outline design principles for models that can offer new insights into tackling persistent problems in large-scale systems, such as the European road transport system or the regional management of water resources. The systemic nature of these problems is associated with them being complex, uncertain and cutting across a number of sectors, and indicates a need for radical technological and behavioural solutions that address changes at the systems level rather than offering incremental changes within sub-systems. Model design is inspired by recent research into transitions, an emerging paradigm which provides a framework for tackling persistent problems. We use concepts from the literature on transitions to develop a prototype of a generic 'transition model'. Our prototype aims to capture different types of transition pathways, using historical examples such as the transition from horse-drawn carriages to cars or that from sailing ships to steam ships. The model combines agent-based modelling techniques and system dynamics, and includes interactions of individual agents and sub-systems, as well as cumulative effects on system structures. We show success in simulating different historical transition pathways by adapting the model's parameters and rules for each example. Finally, we discuss the improvements necessary for systematically exploring and detailing transition pathways in empirical case-study applications to current and future transitions such as the transition to a sustainable transport system in Europe

Modelling societal transitions with agent transformation

Transition models explain long-term and large-scale processes fundamentally changing the structure of a societal system. Our concern is that most transition models are too static. Although they capture a move of focus from static equilibria to transitions between dynamic equilibria, they are still rooted in an "equilibriumist" approach. Improvement is possible with agent-based models that give attention to endogenous system processes called "transformation processes". These models can render far more dynamic pictures of societal systems in transition, and are no longer remote from descriptions in the emerging transition literature

UK microgeneration. Part I: policy and behavioural aspects

A critical review of the literature relating to government policy and behavioural aspects relevant to the uptake and application of microgeneration in the UK is presented. Given the current policy context aspiring to zero-carbon new homes by 2016 and a variety of minimum standards and financial policy instruments supporting microgeneration in existing dwellings, it appears that this class of technologies could make a significant contribution to UK energy supply and low-carbon buildings in the future. Indeed, achievement of a reduction in greenhouse gas emissions by 80% (the UK government's 2050 target) for the residential sector may entail substantial deployment of microgeneration. Realisation of the large potential market for microgeneration relies on a variety of interrelated factors such as microeconomics, behavioural aspects, the structure of supporting policy instruments and well-informed technology development. This paper explores these issues in terms of current and proposed policy instruments in the UK. Behavioural aspects associated with both initial uptake of the technology and after purchase are also considered

UK microgeneration. Part II : technology overviews

This paper reviews the current status of microgeneration technologies at the domestic scale. Overviews are given for nine such technologies, grouped into three sections: (a) low carbon heating: condensing boilers, biomass boilers and room heaters, air source and ground source heat pumps; (b) renewables: solar photovoltaic panels, flat plate and evacuated tube solar thermal panels and micro-wind; and (c) combined heat and power: Stirling engines, internal combustion engines and fuel cells. Reviews of the construction, operation and performance are given for the leading commercial products of each technology. Wherever possible, data are presented from the field, giving the actual prices paid by customers, efficiencies and energy yields experienced in real-world use, reliability and durability, and the problems faced by users. This information has a UK focus but is generally relevant in the international context. Two issues are found to be prevalent throughout the microgeneration industry. Total installed costs are a premium and vary substantially between technologies, between specific products (e.g. different models of solar panel), and between individual installations. Performance in the field is found in many cases to differ widely from manufacturers’ quotes and laboratory studies, often owing to installation and operational problems. Despite this, microgeneration has demonstrated substantial improvements over conventional generation in terms of fossil fuel consumption, carbon dioxide emissions and energy cost, provided that the appropriate technologies are employed, being installed and operated correctly according to the load requirements of the house and their physical location