A simple variance estimator for unequal probability sampling without replacement

Survey sampling textbooks often refer to the Sen-Yates-Grundy variance estimator for use with without replacement unequal probability designs. This estimator is rarely implemented, because of the complexity of determining joint inclusion probabilities. In practice, the variance is usually estimated by simpler variance estimators such as the Hansen-Hurwitz with replacement variance estimator; which often leads to overestimation of the variance for large sampling fraction that are common in business surveys. We will consider an alternative estimator: the Hájek (1964) variance estimator that depends on the first-order inclusion probabilities only and is usually more accurate than the Hansen-Hurwitz estimator. We review this estimator and show its practical value. We propose a simple alternative expression; which is as simple as the Hansen-Hurwitz estimator. We also show how the Hájek estimator can be easily implemented with standard statistical packages

Variance estimation for measures of change in probability sampling

We propose to estimate the design variance of absolute changes between two cross-sectional estimators under rotating sampling schemes. We show that the variance estimator proposed is generally positive. We also propose possible extensions for stratified samples, with dynamic stratification; that is, when units move between strata and new strata are created at the second waves

Bayes and empirical-Bayes multiplicity adjustment in the variable-selection problem

This paper studies the multiplicity-correction effect of standard Bayesian variable-selection priors in linear regression. Our first goal is to clarify when, and how, multiplicity correction happens automatically in Bayesian analysis, and to distinguish this correction from the Bayesian Ockham's-razor effect. Our second goal is to contrast empirical-Bayes and fully Bayesian approaches to variable selection through examples, theoretical results and simulations. Considerable differences between the two approaches are found. In particular, we prove a theorem that characterizes a surprising aymptotic discrepancy between fully Bayes and empirical Bayes. This discrepancy arises from a different source than the failure to account for hyperparameter uncertainty in the empirical-Bayes estimate. Indeed, even at the extreme, when the empirical-Bayes estimate converges asymptotically to the true variable-inclusion probability, the potential for a serious difference remains.Comment: Published in at http://dx.doi.org/10.1214/10-AOS792 the Annals of Statistics (http://www.imstat.org/aos/) by the Institute of Mathematical Statistics (http://www.imstat.org

Asymptotic consistency under large entropy sampling designs with unequal probabilities

A large part of survey sampling literature is devoted to unequal probabilities sampling designs without replacement. Brewer and Hanif (1983) provided a summary of these sampling designs. The maximum entropy designs is one of them. Consistency results have been proven for the maximum entropy sampling (Hájek, 1964). The aim is to give sufficient conditions under which Hájek (1964) consistency results still hold for large entropy sampling designs which are different from the maximum entropy design. These conditions involve modes of convergence of sampling designs towards the maximum entropy design. We show that these conditions are satisfied for the popular Rao-Sampford (Rao, 1965, Sampford, 1967) design. Our consistency results are applied to the Hájek (1964) simple variance estimator. This estimator does not require joint-inclusion probabilities and can be easily estimated using weighted least squares regression (Berger, 2004, 2005b). Deville (1999) conjectured that this estimator is suitable for any sampling designs (see also Brewer and Donadio, 2003). Our consistency result gives regularity conditions under which this estimator is consistent which justifies Deville’s (1999) conjecture

A Modified Version of the Waxman Algorithm

The iterative algorithm recently proposed by Waxman for solving eigenvalue problems, which relies on the method of moments, has been modified to improve its convergence considerably without sacrificing its benefits or elegance. The suggested modification is based on methods to calculate low-lying eigenpairs of large bounded hermitian operators or matrices

Signals for Low Scale Gravity in the Process γγ→ZZ\gamma \gamma \to ZZ

We investigate the sensitivity of future photon-photon colliders to low scale gravity scenarios via the process $\gamma\gamma \to ZZ$ where the Kaluza-Klein boson exchange contributes only when the initial state photons have opposite helicity. We contrast this with the situation for the process $\gamma \gamma \to \gamma \gamma$ where the $t$ and $u$ channel also contribute. We include the one-loop Standard Model background whose interference with the graviton exchange determines the experimental reach in measuring any deviation from the Standard Model expectations and explore how polarization can be exploited to enhance the signal over background. We find that a 1 TeV linear collider has an experimental reach to mass scale of about 4 TeV in this channel.Comment: 20 pages, 8 figure

Sporadic Long-term Variability in Radio Activity from a Brown Dwarf

Radio activity has been observed in a large variety of stellar objects, including in the last few years, ultra-cool dwarfs. To explore the extent of long-term radio activity in ultra-cool dwarfs, we use data taken over an extended period of 9 hr from the Very Large Array of the source 2MASS J05233822-1403022 in September 2006, plus data taken in 2004. The observation taken in September 2006 failed to detect any radio activity at 8.46 GHz. A closer inspection of earlier data reveals that the source varied from a null detection on 3 May 2004, to $\approx$95 $\mu$Jy on 17 May 2004, to 230 $\mu$Jy on 18 June 2004. The lack of detection in September 2006 suggests at least a factor of ten flux variability at 8.46 GHz. Three short photometric runs did not reveal any optical variability. In addition to the observed pulsing nature of the radio flux from another ultra-cool source, the present observations suggests that ultra-cool dwarfs may not just be pulsing but can also display long-term sporadic variability in their levels of quiescent radio emission. The lack of optical photometric variability suggests an absence of large-scale spots at the time of the latest VLA observations, although small very high latitude spots combined with a low inclination could cause very low amplitude rotational modulation which may not be measurable. We discuss this large variability in the radio emission within the context of both gyrosynchrotron emission and the electron-cyclotron maser, favoring the latter mechanism.Comment: 7 pages, 2 figures, 1 table, accepted for publication in A&A Letter

Inorganic ion exchange membrane fuel cell quarterly progress report, period ending 10 apr. 1965

Inorganic ion exchange membrane for improving mass and heat transfer of fuel cells using palladium and platinum black as catalys