PUBLIC INFORMATION BIAS AND PREDICTION MARKET ACCURACY

How do prediction markets achieve high levels of accuracy? We propose that, in some situations, traders in prediction markets improve upon publicly available information. Specifically, when there is a known bias in publicly available information, markets provide an incentive for traders to “de-bias” this information. In such a situation, a prediction market will provide a more accurate forecast than the public information available to traders. We test our conjecture using real-money prediction markets for seven local elections in the United States. We find that the prediction market forecasts are significantly more accurate than those generated using the pre-election polls.Previous versions of this paper were presented at the Workshop on The Growth of Gambling and Prediction Markets, the ISBM Conference on Prediction Markets in Marketing: Issues, Challenges and Research Opportunities, the DIMACS Workshop on Markets as Predictive Devices, and the 17th Annual AMA Advanced Research Techniques Forum. The authors thank the participants for their insights which have helped improve this researc

The Play-Out Effect and Preference Reversals: Evidence For Noisy Maximization

In this paper, we document a play-out effect in preference reversal experiments. We compare data where preferences are elicited using (1) purely hypothetical gambles, (2) played-out, but unpaid gambles and (3) played-out gambles with truth-revealing monetary payments. We ask whether a model of stable preferences with random errors (e.g., expected utility with errors) can explain the data. The model is strongly rejected in data collected using purely hypothetical gambles. However, simply playing-out the gambles, even in the absence of payments, shifts the data pattern so that noisy maximization is no longer rejected. Inducing risk preferences using a lottery procedure, using monetary incentives or both shift the data pattern further so that noisy maximization achieves the best possible fit to the aggregate data. No model could fit the data better. We argue that play-out shifts the response pattern by inducing value because subjects can use outcomes to keep score. Induction or monetary payments create stronger induced values, shifting the pattern further

INCENTIVE AND ACCURACY ISSUES IN MOVIE PREDICTION MARKETS

We compare the forecasts of nineteen movie box office results from real money (Iowa Electronic Market) and play money (Hollywood Stock Exchange) prediction markets. The forecasts were not significantly different, contrary to recent research on incentives and prediction market accuracy. Proponents of play money incentives suggest that (play) wealth concentrates in the hands of knowledgeable traders over time. This should lead to improved accuracy over time. A longitudinal analysis of results (1999-2002) from the play money Hollywood Stock Exchange fails to find significant improvement over time. This may be due to an increased number of less knowledgeable traders who, nevertheless, provide liquidity in the market

Computing Equilibria of Prediction Markets via Persuasion

We study the computation of equilibria in prediction markets in perhaps the most fundamental special case with two players and three trading opportunities. To do so, we show equivalence of prediction market equilibria with those of a simpler signaling game with commitment introduced by Kong and Schoenebeck (2018). We then extend their results by giving computationally efficient algorithms for additional parameter regimes. Our approach leverages a new connection between prediction markets and Bayesian persuasion, which also reveals interesting conceptual insights

Social Preferences and the Efficiency of Bilateral Exchange

Under what conditions do social preferences, such as altruism or a concern for fair outcomes, generate efficient trade? I analyze theoretically a simple bilateral exchange game: Each player sequentially takes an action that reduces his own material payoff but increases the other player’s. Each player’s preferences may depend on both his/her own material payoff and the other player’s. I identify necessary conditions and sufficient conditions on the players’ preferences for the outcome of their interaction to be Pareto efficient. The results have implications for interpreting the rotten kid theorem, gift exchange in the laboratory, and gift exchange in the field

Baryonic symmetries and M5 branes in the AdS_4/CFT_3 correspondence

We study U(1) symmetries dual to Betti multiplets in the AdS_4/CFT_3 correspondence for M2 branes at Calabi-Yau four-fold singularities. Analysis of the boundary conditions for vector fields in AdS_4 allows for a choice where wrapped M5 brane states carrying non-zero charge under such symmetries can be considered. We begin by focusing on isolated toric singularities without vanishing six-cycles, and study in detail the cone over Q^{111}. The boundary conditions considered are dual to a CFT where the gauge group is U(1)^2 x SU(N)^4. We find agreement between the spectrum of gauge-invariant baryonic-type operators in this theory and wrapped M5 brane states. Moreover, the physics of vacua in which these symmetries are spontaneously broken precisely matches a dual gravity analysis involving resolutions of the singularity, where we are able to match condensates of the baryonic operators, Goldstone bosons and global strings. We also argue more generally that theories where the resolutions have six-cycles are expected to receive non-perturbative corrections from M5 brane instantons. We give a general formula relating the instanton action to normalizable harmonic two-forms, and compute it explicitly for the Q^{222} example. The holographic interpretation of such instantons is currently unclear.Comment: 92 pages, 10 figure

Genome-wide analyses for personality traits identify six genomic loci and show correlations with psychiatric disorders

Personality is influenced by genetic and environmental factors1 and associated with mental health. However, the underlying genetic determinants are largely unknown. We identified six genetic loci, including five novel loci2,3, significantly associated with personality traits in a meta-analysis of genome-wide association studies (N = 123,132–260,861). Of these genomewide significant loci, extraversion was associated with variants in WSCD2 and near PCDH15, and neuroticism with variants on chromosome 8p23.1 and in L3MBTL2. We performed a principal component analysis to extract major dimensions underlying genetic variations among five personality traits and six psychiatric disorders (N = 5,422–18,759). The first genetic dimension separated personality traits and psychiatric disorders, except that neuroticism and openness to experience were clustered with the disorders. High genetic correlations were found between extraversion and attention-deficit– hyperactivity disorder (ADHD) and between openness and schizophrenia and bipolar disorder. The second genetic dimension was closely aligned with extraversion–introversion and grouped neuroticism with internalizing psychopathology (e.g., depression or anxiety)

Occupational exposure to gases/fumes and mineral dust affect DNA methylation levels of genes regulating expression

Many workers are daily exposed to occupational agents like gases/fumes, mineral dust or biological dust, which could induce adverse health effects. Epigenetic mechanisms, such as DNA methylation, have been suggested to play a role. We therefore aimed to identify differentially methylated regions (DMRs) upon occupational exposures in never-smokers and investigated if these DMRs associated with gene expression levels. To determine the effects of occupational exposures independent of smoking, 903 never-smokers of the LifeLines cohort study were included. We performed three genome-wide methylation analyses (Illumina 450 K), one per occupational exposure being gases/fumes, mineral dust and biological dust, using robust linear regression adjusted for appropriate confounders. DMRs were identified using comb-p in Python. Results were validated in the Rotterdam Study (233 never-smokers) and methylation-expression associations were assessed using Biobank-based Integrative Omics Study data (n = 2802). Of the total 21 significant DMRs, 14 DMRs were associated with gases/fumes and 7 with mineral dust. Three of these DMRs were associated with both exposures (RPLP1 and LINC02169 (2x)) and 11 DMRs were located within transcript start sites of gene expression regulating genes. We replicated two DMRs with gases/fumes (VTRNA2-1 and GNAS) and one with mineral dust (CCDC144NL). In addition, nine gases/fumes DMRs and six mineral dust DMRs significantly associated with gene expression levels. Our data suggest that occupational exposures may induce differential methylation of gene expression regulating genes and thereby may induce adverse health effects. Given the millions of workers that are exposed daily to occupational exposures, further studies on this epigenetic mechanism and health outcomes are warranted

Introduction of Heated Cow's Milk Protein in Challenge-Proven Cow's Milk Allergic Children:The iAGE Study

The introduction of baked milk products in cow's milk (CM) allergic children has previously been shown to accelerate induction tolerance in a selected group of children. However, there is no standardized baked milk product on the market. Recently, a new standardized, heated and glycated cow's milk protein (HP) product was developed. The aim of this study was to measure safety and tolerability of a new, well characterized heated CM protein (HP) product in cow's milk allergic (CMA) children between the age of 3 and 36 months. The children were recruited from seven clinics throughout The Netherlands. The HP product was introduced in six incremental doses under clinical supervision. Symptoms were registered after introduction of the HP product. Several questionnaires were filled out by parents of the children. Skin prick tests were performed with CM and HP product, sIgE to CM and α-lactalbumin (Bos d4), β-lactoglobulin (Bos d5), serum albumin (Bos d 6), lactoferrin (Bos d7) and casein (Bos d8). Whereas 72% percent (18 out of 25) of the children tolerated the HP product, seven children experienced adverse events. Risk factors for intolerance to the HP product were higher skin prick test (SPT) histamine equivalent index (HEP) results with CM and the HP product, higher specific IgE levels against Bos d4 and Bos d8 levels and Bos d5 levels. In conclusion, the HP product was tolerated by 72% of the CM allergic children. Outcomes of SPT with CM and the HP product, as well as values of sIgE against caseins, α-lactalbumin, and β-lactoglobulin may predict the tolerability of the HP product. Larger studies are needed to confirm these conclusions.</p

Diagnostic performance and clinical implications for enhancing a hybrid quantitative flow ratio-FFR revascularization decision-making strategy

Invasive fractional flow reserve (FFR) adoption remains low mainly due to procedural and operator related factors as well as costs. Alternatively, quantitative flow ratio (QFR) achieves a high accuracy mainly outside the intermediate zone without the need for hyperaemia and wire-use. We aimed to determine the diagnostic performance of QFR and to evaluate a QFR-FFR hybrid strategy in which FFR is measured only in the intermediate zone. This retrospective study included 289 consecutive patients who underwent invasive coronary angiography and FFR. QFR was calculated for all vessels in which FFR was measured. The QFR-FFR hybrid approach was modelled using the intermediate zone of 0.77-0.87 in which FFR-measurements are recommended. The sensitivity, specificity, and accuracy on a per vessel-based analysis were 84.6%, 86.3% and 85.6% for QFR and 88.0%, 92.9% and 90.3% for the QFR-FFR hybrid approach. The diagnostic accuracy of QFR-FFR hybrid strategy with invasive FFR measurement was 93.4% and resulted in a 56.7% reduction in the need for FFR. QFR has a good correlation and agreement with invasive FFR. A hybrid QFR-FFR approach could extend the use of QFR and reduces the proportion of invasive FFR-measurements needed while improving accuracy