A Robbins-Monro procedure for estimation in semiparametric regression models

This paper is devoted to the parametric estimation of a shift together with the nonparametric estimation of a regression function in a semiparametric regression model. We implement a very efficient and easy to handle Robbins-Monro procedure. On the one hand, we propose a stochastic algorithm similar to that of Robbins-Monro in order to estimate the shift parameter. A preliminary evaluation of the regression function is not necessary to estimate the shift parameter. On the other hand, we make use of a recursive Nadaraya-Watson estimator for the estimation of the regression function. This kernel estimator takes into account the previous estimation of the shift parameter. We establish the almost sure convergence for both Robbins-Monro and Nadaraya--Watson estimators. The asymptotic normality of our estimates is also provided. Finally, we illustrate our semiparametric estimation procedure on simulated and real data.Comment: Published in at http://dx.doi.org/10.1214/12-AOS969 the Annals of Statistics (http://www.imstat.org/aos/) by the Institute of Mathematical Statistics (http://www.imstat.org

A sharp analysis on the asymptotic behavior of the Durbin-Watson statistic for the first-order autoregressive process

The purpose of this paper is to provide a sharp analysis on the asymptotic behavior of the Durbin-Watson statistic. We focus our attention on the first-order autoregressive process where the driven noise is also given by a first-order autoregressive process. We establish the almost sure convergence and the asymptotic normality for both the least squares estimator of the unknown parameter of the autoregressive process as well as for the serial correlation estimator associated to the driven noise. In addition, the almost sure rates of convergence of our estimates are also provided. It allows us to establish the almost sure convergence and the asymptotic normality for the Durbin-Watson statistic. Finally, we propose a new bilateral statistical test for residual autocorrelation

Asymptotic results for empirical measures of weighted sums of independent random variables

We prove that if a rectangular matrix with uniformly small entries and approximately orthogonal rows is applied to the independent standardized random variables with uniformly bounded third moments, then the empirical CDF of the resulting partial sums converges to the normal CDF with probability one. This implies almost sure convergence of empirical periodograms, almost sure convergence of spectra of circulant and reverse circulant matrices, and almost sure convergence of the CDF's generated from independent random variables by independent random orthogonal matrices. For special trigonometric matrices, the speed of the almost sure convergence is described by the normal approximation and by the large deviation principle

A Durbin-Watson serial correlation test for ARX processes via excited adaptive tracking

We propose a new statistical test for the residual autocorrelation in ARX adaptive tracking. The introduction of a persistent excitation in the adaptive tracking control allows us to build a bilateral statistical test based on the well-known Durbin-Watson statistic. We establish the almost sure convergence and the asymptotic normality for the Durbin-Watson statistic leading to a powerful serial correlation test. Numerical experiments illustrate the good performances of our statistical test procedure

Almost sure central limit theorems on the Wiener space

In this paper, we study almost sure central limit theorems for sequences of functionals of general Gaussian fields. We apply our result to non-linear functions of stationary Gaussian sequences. We obtain almost sure central limit theorems for these non-linear functions when they converge in law to a normal distribution.Comment: Title changed. Major changes: results improved. 24 page

Almost Sure Stabilization for Adaptive Controls of Regime-switching LQ Systems with A Hidden Markov Chain

This work is devoted to the almost sure stabilization of adaptive control systems that involve an unknown Markov chain. The control system displays continuous dynamics represented by differential equations and discrete events given by a hidden Markov chain. Different from previous work on stabilization of adaptive controlled systems with a hidden Markov chain, where average criteria were considered, this work focuses on the almost sure stabilization or sample path stabilization of the underlying processes. Under simple conditions, it is shown that as long as the feedback controls have linear growth in the continuous component, the resulting process is regular. Moreover, by appropriate choice of the Lyapunov functions, it is shown that the adaptive system is stabilizable almost surely. As a by-product, it is also established that the controlled process is positive recurrent