Partisan policy promises and sector-specific stock-market performance: evidence from Mexico's 2006 presidential campaign

Scholars have long held that partisan politics cause aggregate-level fluctuations in markets. However, if investors hold different policy preferences, the effects of election campaigns on their behavior should be more nuanced. In particular, investors in economic sectors benefiting from neo-liberal economic policies might respond favorably to gains in support by right-leaning candidates, whereas those expected to profit from state-led economic development might react favorably to gains by left-leaning contenders. To test these propositions, I examine stock market performance by economic sector during Mexico's 2006 presidential race. Statistical analysis of pre-election polls and stock market returns during the campaign reveals that, although investors did not react to potential partisan policy change in the ways originally expected, they did respond to polling news differently by economic sector. The findings demonstrate the importance of disaggregating stock, bond, and currency markets according to economic criteria, and thus the limitations of aggregate level analysis for research on politics and markets

Strong Presidents, Powerful Provinces: The Case of Argentina

Recent research highlights two competing trends in studies of Argentina politics. One emphasizes the strength of federal institutions; the other the powerful position of presidents in the system. Often depicted as opposing, this paper shows how the presence ofpowerful presidents complements that of strong provincial leaders. It is argued that,thanks to the federalized electoral system, politicians aspiring to national office mustensure the support of provincial political leaders. As long as national leaders have beenable to confer benefits on provincial politicians, provincial leaders have supported themat the polls. Historical analysis of national policy-making during state-led economic developmentshows that presidents used their privileged political positions to channel a varietyof benefits to provincial governments, leading to the development of provincial economiesand stable electoral support in national elections. Analysis of recent economic adjustment,though underscoring the powerful position of presidents and provincial leaders, alsoshows how the inability to provide customary benefits hurts national politicians at the polls

On the Ground: Candidate Appearances and Events during the 2006 Mexican Presidential Campaign

This work examines a crucial part of modern presidential campaigning in Mexico: candidate appearances in municipalities. It also traces the changes in presidential campaigning over the past 30 years and finds that modern campaigning does not just involve mass media appeals, but also “the ground war,” that is, candidate visits to cities and towns all across Mexico. In order to understand how parties in Mexico strategize the candidate appearance schedule, we have gathered a unique data-base that examines all the municipalities visited by each candidate to understand how campaign teams spend valuable resources.AR

Radiation experiments on Cosmos 2044: K-7-41, parts A, B, C, D, E

The Cosmos 2044 biosatellite mission offered the opportunity for radiation measurements under conditions which are seldom available (an inclination of 82.3 deg and attitude of 294 x 216 km). Measurements were made on the outside of the spacecraft under near-zero shielding conditions. Also, this mission was the first in which active temperature recorders (the ATR-4) were flown to record the temperature profiles of detector stacks. Measurements made on this mission provide a comparison and test for modeling of depth doses and LET spectra for orbital parameters previously unavailable. Tissue absorbed doses from 3480 rad (252 rad/d) down to 0.115 rad (8.33 mrad/d) were measured at different depths (0.0146 and 3.20 g/sq cm, respectively) with averaged TLD readings. The LET spectra yielded maximum and minimum values of integral flux of 27.3 x 10(exp -4) and 3.05 x 10(exp -4)/sq cm/s/sr, of dose rate of 7.01 and 1.20 mrad/d, and of dose equivalent rate of 53.8 and 11.6 mrem/d, for LET(sub infinity)-H2O is greater than or equal to 4 keV/micron. Neutron measurements yielded 0.018 mrem/d in the thermal region, 0.25 mrem/d in the resonance region and 3.3 mrem/d in the high energy region. The TLD depth dose and LET spectra were compared with calculations from the modeling codes. The agreement is good but some further refinements are in order. In comparing measurements on Cosmos 2044 with those from previous Cosmos missions (orbital inclinations of 62.8 deg) there is a greater spread (maximum to minimum) in depth doses and an increased contribution from GCRs, and higher LET particles, in the heavy particle fluxes

How “Participatory Governance” Strengthens Authoritarian Regimes: Evidence from Electoral Authoritarian Oaxaca, Mexico

Research on the impact of participatory institutions in Latin America has not yet examined how they work in authoritarian settings. National autocrats in Mexico implemented participatory reforms during that country's national electoral authoritarian regime. Building on research on political decentralization in authoritarian regimes, I argue that participatory institutions can be used to channel citizen demands and to incorporate citizens into authoritarian systems, thereby strengthening authoritarian rule. However, following research on democratic participatory governance, I also argue that participatory institutions will work better in this regard when designed from the bottom up rather than from the top down. Statistical analysis of patterns of municipal-level electoral authoritarian support in Mexico shows that bottom-up-designed participatory institutions implemented during electoral authoritarian rule strengthened local political control to a greater extent than top-down-designed political systems. The study supports research revealing the anti-democratic effects of participatory institutions in democratic Latin American nations

Party Leader or Party Reputation Concerns? How Vertical Partisan Alignment Reins in Subnational Fiscal Profligacy

Some scholars argue that party leader considerations drive governors copartisan with presidents toward fiscal discipline, while others argue that party reputation concerns guide their behavior. To demonstrate how to assess whether either of these mechanisms is at work, I extend this analysis to the municipal level. If mayors aligned with both governors and presidents are more disciplined than mayors aligned with presidents only, copartisan governors affect mayoral fiscal behavior through party leader considerations. If mayors aligned with both governors and presidents are just as fiscally disciplined as those aligned with presidents only, party reputation concerns drive mayoral fiscal behavior. Cross-sectional time-series analysis of debt used to finance fiscal excess in municipal Mexico reveals support for the party-leader-concern logic in this nation, but the party reputation logic (or both logics or neither logic) may be at work in others

Who’s Afraid of López Obrador? Market Responses to Election Polling Trends during the 2006 Mexican Presidential Campaign

This article addresses a key issue during the course of Mexico’s 2006 presidential campaign: How did markets react to changes in support for the left-leaning Andrés Manuel López Obrador (PRD)? To answer this question, I develop a series of alternative arguments for how investors would respond changes in PRD support during the campaign. I evaluate the arguments using a times series GARCH model. The results show that changes in the levels of support for the candidate did not affect market returns but they did affect market volatility. Increased electoral uncertainty, as margins narrowed, raised market volatility, while increasing electoral certainty, regardless of whether rises in support were for López Obrador or the market-friendly Felipe Calderón (PAN), reduced it. This finding reveals that investors may have accepted the prospect of a López Obrador presidency ahead of the election but not the possible post-election social and political instability associated with a tight race

The Catholic Church, Political Institutions, and Electoral Outcomes in Oaxaca, Mexico

This study analyzes two competing arguments about the role of the Catholic Church in state politics Oaxaca, Mexico in the 1990s and 2000s. One line of argument claims that progressive Catholic bishops supported and facilitated democratization in this state. Another line suggests that the church may have inadvertently facilitated ongoing authoritarian rule through its active support for the formalization of local customary political practices into law. Statistical analysis shows that the level of Catholic presence across Oaxaca’s municipalities only matters in some cases and not always in the direction expected. Specifically, in some indigenous communities high levels of Catholic presence facilitated the adoption of customary laws, declines in pri support, and lower first place party margins. In other indigenous places, it had the opposite effect. The lack of systematic effect demonstrates the Catholic Church’s capacity to intervene in local political affairs in multiple direction and ways, as well as its often tacit support for existing political dynamics

Charged particle LET-spectra measurements aboard LDEF

The linear energy transfer (LET) spectra of charged particles was measured in the 5 to 250 keV/micron (water) interval with CR-39 and in the 500 to 1500 keV/micron (water) interval with polycarbonate plastic nuclear track detectors (PNTDs) under different shielding depths in the P0006 experiment. The optimal processing conditions were determined for both PNTDs in relation to the relatively high track densities due to the long term exposure in space. The total track density was measured over the selected samples, and tracks in coincidence on the facing surfaces of two detector sheets were selected for measuring at the same position on each sheet. The short range (SR) and Galactic Cosmic Ray (GCR) components were measured separately with CR-39 PNTDs and the integral dose and dose rate spectra of charged particles were also determined. The high LET portion of the LET spectra was measured with polycarbonate PNTDs with high statistical accuracy. This is a unique result of this exposure due to the low flux of these types of particles for typical spaceflight durations. The directional dependence of the charged particles at the position of the P0006 experiment was also studied by four small side stacks which surrounded the main stack and by analyzing the dip angle and polar angle distributions of the measured SR and GCR particle tracks in the main stack

Radiation exposure of LDEF: Initial results

Initial results from LDEF include radiation detector measurements from four experiments, P0006, P0004, M0004, and A0015. The detectors were located on both the leading and trailing edges of the orbiter and also on the Earthside end. This allowed the directional dependence of the incoming radiation to be measured. Total absorbed doses from thermoluminescent detectors (TLDs) verified the predicted spatial east-west dose ratio dependence of a factor approx. 2.5, due to trapped proton anisotropy in the South Atlantic Anomaly. On the trailing edge of the orbiter a range of doses from 6.64 to 2.91 Gy were measured under Al equivalent shielding of 0.42 to 1.11 g/sq cm. A second set of detectors near this location yielded doses of 6.48 to 2.66 Gy under Al equivalent shielding of 0.48 to 15.4 g/sq cm. On the leading edge, doses of 2.58 to 2.10 Gy were found under Al equivalent shielding of 1.37 to 2.90 g/sq cm. Initial charged particle LET (linear energy transfer) spectra, fluxes, doses and dose equivalents, for LET in H2O greater than or = 8 keV/micron, were measured with plastic nuclear track detectors (PNTDs) located in two experiments. Also preliminary data on low energy neutrons were obtained from detectors containing (6)LiF foils