Australia's first fossil marsupial mole (Notoryctemorphia) resolves controversies about their evolution and palaeoenvironmental origins

Fossils of a marsupial mole (Marsupialia, Notoryctemorphia, Notoryctidae) are described from early Miocene deposits in the Riversleigh World Heritage Area, northwestern Queensland, Australia. These represent the first unequivocal fossil record of the order Notoryctemorphia, the two living species of which are among the world's most specialized and bizarre mammals, but which are also convergent on certain fossorial placental mammals (most notably chrysochlorid golden moles). The fossil remains are genuinely ‘transitional', documenting an intermediate stage in the acquisition of a number of specializations and showing that one of these—the dental morphology known as zalambdodonty—was acquired via a different evolutionary pathway than in placentals. They, thus, document a clear case of evolutionary convergence (rather than parallelism) between only distantly related and geographically isolated mammalian lineages—marsupial moles on the island continent of Australia and placental moles on most other, at least intermittently connected continents. In contrast to earlier presumptions about a relationship between the highly specialized body form of the blind, earless, burrowing marsupial moles and desert habitats, it is now clear that archaic burrowing marsupial moles were adapted to and probably originated in wet forest palaeoenvironments, preadapting them to movement through drier soils in the xeric environments of Australia that developed during the Neogene

Revealing beliefs: using ensemble ecosystem modelling to extrapolate expert beliefs to novel ecological scenarios

Ecosystem-based management requires predictive models of ecosystem dynamics. There are typically insufficient empirical data available to parameterise these complex models, and so decision-makers commonly rely on beliefs elicited from experts. However, such expert beliefs are necessarily limited because (i) only a small proportion of ecosystem components and dynamics have been observed; (ii) uncertainty about ecosystem dynamics can result in contradictory expert judgements and (iii) elicitation time and resources are limited. We use an ensemble of dynamic ecosystem models to extrapolate a limited set of stated expert beliefs into a wider range of revealed beliefs about how the ecosystem will respond to perturbations and management. Importantly, the method captures the expert uncertainty and propagates it through to predictions. We demonstrate this process and its potential value by applying it to the conservation of the threatened malleefowl (Leipoa ocellata) in the Murray mallee ecosystems of southern Australia. In two workshops, we asked experts to construct a qualitative ecosystem interaction network and to describe their beliefs about how the ecosystem will respond to particular perturbations. We used this information to constrain an ensemble of 10 community models, leaving a subset that could reproduce stated expert beliefs. We then interrogated this ensemble of models to reveal experts’ implicit beliefs about management scenarios that were not a part of the initial elicitation exercises. Our method uses straightforward questions to efficiently elicit expert beliefs, and then applies a flexible modelling approach to reveal those experts’ beliefs about the dynamics of the entire ecosystem. It allows rapid planning of ecosystem-based management informed by expert judgement, and provides a basis for value-of-information analyses and adaptive management

Correction: Interspecific and geographic variation in the diets of sympatric carnivores: Dingoes/wild dogs and red foxes in South-Eastern Australia

<p>Correction: Interspecific and Geographic Variation in the Diets of Sympatric Carnivores: Dingoes/Wild Dogs and Red Foxes in South-Eastern Australia</p

Adaptive management informs conservation and monitoring of Australia's threatened malleefowl

Monitoring is an essential component of adaptive management, and a carefully designed program is needed to ensure high-quality data and inferences over realistic time scales. Co-operation among agencies and incorporating citizen science may help enhance learning while reducing the financial costs of monitoring. We seek to realise this potential while conserving the Australian malleefowl (Leipoa ocellata). An established network of citizen scientists provide low-cost, sustainable annual monitoring data, yet the most effective actions for conserving malleefowl remain highly uncertain. The continent-wide species' distribution presents significant challenges, including multiple environmental strata to sample and numerous management jurisdictions. We outline an adaptive management framework that aims to unify malleefowl conservation priorities nationally, and target monitoring efforts. We elicited a model structure for the drivers of, and threats to, malleefowl persistence in a workshop with land managers and advocates. We parameterised 80 uncertain interactions within this structure using novel ensemble modelling techniques and identified the effectiveness of predator control as a critical uncertainty affecting malleefowl persistence. We developed a classical, spatially replicated experimental design to test whether malleefowl breed more frequently where predators are suppressed. The proposed monitoring design will rely on the contributions of several dozen land managers and 200–300 citizen scientists annually. We have developed a broad stakeholder base, a proactive communication strategy, and an agile approach to accessing resources to foster resilience and longevity in the monitoring program. If malleefowl conservation successfully adapts in response to monitoring outcomes, it will become one of the largest adaptive management programs on the planet.</p