Short-Term Forecasting of GDP Using Large Monthly Datasets: A Pseudo Real-Time Forecast Evaluation Exercise

This paper evaluates different models for the short-term forecasting of real GDP growth in ten selected European countries and the euro area as a whole. Purely quarterly models are compared with models designed to exploit early releases of monthly indicators for the nowcast and forecast of quarterly GDP growth. Amongst the latter, we consider small bridge equations and forecast equations in which the bridging between monthly and quarterly data is achieved through a regression on factors extracted from large monthly datasets. The forecasting exercise is performed in a simulated real-time context, which takes account of publication lags in the individual series. In general, we find that models that exploit monthly information outperform models that use purely quarterly data and, amongst the former, factor models perform best.Bridge models, Dynamic factor models, real-time data flow model

Short-term forecasting of GDP using large monthly datasets: a pseudo real-time forecast evaluation exercise.

This paper evaluates different models for the short-term forecasting of real GDP growth in ten selected European countries and the euro area as a whole. Purely quarterly models are compared with models designed to exploit early releases of monthly indicators for the nowcast and forecast of quarterly GDP growth. Amongst the latter, we consider small bridge equations and forecast equations in which the bridging between monthly and quarterly data is achieved through a regression on factors extracted from large monthly datasets. The forecasting exercise is performed in a simulated real-time context, which takes account of publication lags in the individual series. In general, we find that models that exploit monthly information outperform models that use purely quarterly data and, amongst the former, factor models perform best.Bridge models ; Dynamic factor models ; real-time data flow.

Natural formation of chloro- and bromoacetone in salt lakes of Western Australia

Western Australia is a semi-/arid region known for saline lakes with a wide range of geochemical parameters (pH 2.5-7.1, Cl- 10-200 g L-1. This study reports on the haloacetones chloro- and bromoacetone in air over 6 salt lake shorelines. Significant emissions of chloroacetone (up to 0.2 µmol m-2 h-1) and bromoacetone (up to 1. 5 µmol m-2 h-1) were detected, and a photochemical box model was employed to evaluate the contribution of their atmospheric formation from the olefinic hydrocarbons propene and methacrolein in the gas phase. The measured concentrations could not explain the photochemical halogenation reaction, indicating a strong hitherto unknown source of haloacetones. Aqueous-phase reactions of haloacetones, investigated in the laboratory using humic acid in concentrated salt solutions, were identified as alternative formation pathway by liquid-phase reactions, acid catalyzed enolization of ketones, and subsequent halogenation. In order to verify this mechanism, we made measurements of the Henry's law constants, rate constants for hydrolysis and nucleophilic exchange with chloride, UV-spectra and quantum yields for the photolysis of bromoacetone and 1,1-dibromoacetone in the aqueous phase. We suggest that heterogeneous processes induced by humic substances in the quasi-liquid layer of the salt crust, particle surfaces and the lake water are the predominating pathways for the formation of the observed haloacetones

Большие числа П. Дирака и альтернативный анализ

Soft x-ray microscopy is well suited to investigation of nanoparticles in liquid media. Using a table-top microscope based on a gas-discharge source emitting at 2.88 nm, dried CdTe nanowires and dried PbS hyperbranched nanocrystals are investigated. These structures are the result of the assembly of nanoparticles in a liquid environment. Soft x-ray microscopy is aiming at a better understanding of underlying parameters that affect the self assembly to the desired final structures. It is shown that the presented setup is able to image these particles with a resolution of about 50 nm with exposure times in the range of tens of seconds. The discharge source has a photon flux of more than 109photons/(srsm2) at a photon energy of 430 eV with a bandwidth of /=840. The repetition rate of the source is up to 1000 Hz. With the current setup a photon flux of 5×10 6photons/(m2s) at the sample is achieved

BMP‐2 signaling and mechanotransduction synergize to drive osteogenic differentiation via YAP/TAZ

Growth factors and mechanical cues synergistically affect cellular functions, triggering a variety of signaling pathways. The molecular levels of such cooperative interactions are not fully understood. Due to its role in osteogenesis, the growth factor bone morphogenetic protein 2 (BMP‐2) is of tremendous interest for bone regenerative medicine, osteoporosis therapeutics, and beyond. Here, contribution of BMP‐2 signaling and extracellular mechanical cues to the osteogenic commitment of C2C12 cells is investigated. It is revealed that these two distinct pathways are integrated at the transcriptional level to provide multifactorial control of cell differentiation. The activation of osteogenic genes requires the cooperation of BMP‐2 pathway‐associated Smad1/5/8 heteromeric complexes and mechanosensitive YAP/TAZ translocation. It is further demonstrated that the Smad complexes remain bound onto and active on target genes, even after BMP‐2 removal, suggesting that they act as a “molecular memory unit.” Thus, synergistic stimulation with BMP‐2 and mechanical cues drives osteogenic differentiation in a programmable fashion

Rab2 promotes autophagic and endocytic lysosomal degradation

Rab7 promotes fusion of autophagosomes and late endosomes with lysosomes in yeast and metazoan cells, acting together with its effector, the tethering complex HOPS. Here we show that another small GTPase, Rab2, is also required for autophagosome and endosome maturation and proper lysosome function in Drosophila melanogaster. We demonstrate that Rab2 binds to HOPS, and that its active, GTP-locked form associates with autolysosomes. Importantly, expression of active Rab2 promotes autolysosomal fusions unlike that of GTP-locked Rab7, suggesting that its amount is normally rate limiting. We also demonstrate that RAB2A is required for autophagosome clearance in human breast cancer cells. In conclusion, we identify Rab2 as a key factor for autophagic and endocytic cargo delivery to and degradation in lysosomes

Building a community to engineer synthetic cells and organelles from the bottom-up

Employing concepts from physics, chemistry and bioengineering, 'learning-by-building' approaches are becoming increasingly popular in the life sciences, especially with researchers who are attempting to engineer cellular life from scratch. The SynCell2020/21 conference brought together researchers from different disciplines to highlight progress in this field, including areas where synthetic cells are having socioeconomic and technological impact. Conference participants also identified the challenges involved in designing, manipulating and creating synthetic cells with hierarchical organization and function. A key conclusion is the need to build an international and interdisciplinary research community through enhanced communication, resource-sharing, and educational initiatives

To pay or not to pay? Business owners’ tax morale:testing a neo-institutional framework in a transition environment

In order to understand how the environment influences business owner/managers’ attitudes towards tax morale, we build a theoretical model based on a neo-institutionalist framework. Our model combines three complementary perspectives on institutions—normative, cultural–cognitive and regulatory–instrumental. This enables a broader understanding of factors that influence business owner–managers’ attitudes towards tax evasion. We test the resulting hypotheses using regression analysis on survey data on business owner/managers in Latvia—a transition country, which has undergone massive institutional changes since it was part of the Soviet Union over 25 years ago. We find that legitimacy of the tax authorities and the government (normative dimension), feeling of belonging to the nation (cultural–cognitive dimension) and perceptions of the risk and severity of punishment (regulatory–instrumental dimension) are all associated with higher tax morale for business owners and managers