Structural Analysis of the Effect of Exchange Rate Movement on Stock Market Performance in Nigeria

This paper investigates the impact and causal relationship between exchange rate movement and stock market performance in Nigeria using monthly data spanning from February 2001 to December 2017. Estimated models include pre-crisis, crisis, post-crisis, and the primary model. Johanson co-integration, IGARCH (1,1) and Pairwise Granger causality techniques were used for the analysis. The result of the co-integration test suggested the absence of a long-run relationship among the variables. The estimated IGARCH (1,1) model revealed that the exchange rate and money supply have positive impact on stock market performance. Furthermore, the paper established evidence of a one-way causality from exchange rate to stock market performance in the primary and pre-crisis models and no causality during the crisis and post-crisis periods. Thus, we recommend that the monetary authority should pay close attention to exchange rate movement, address the problem of market manipulations, and employ robust measures to protect the stock market from possible future crisis

The Effect of Cryptocurrency Returns Volatility on Stock Prices and Exchange Rate Returns Volatility in Nigeria

The global usage and acceptability of bitcoin and other forms of cryptocurrencies as another means of payment have generated the attention of financial and economic experts in recent time. This study, however, examined the nexus between the two key economic and financial variables (exchange rate and stock market price) and the most traded cryptocurrency (Bitcoin and Etherum) in Nigeria. The study used monthly data between August 2015 and December 2019 and employed EGARCH, MGARCH, and Granger causality technique to estimate the reaction of the volatility of exchange rates and stock market prices to volatility in cryptocurrency prices. The result shows that the stock market price is more influenced by the instability of bitcoin and etheruem prices than the exchange rate in Nigeri

Fossil Energy Consumption, Carbon Dioxide Emissions and Adult Mortality Rate in Nigeria

The health implications of fossil energy consumption and carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions remain a global concern. This study examines the effect of fossil energy consumption and CO2 emissions on adult mortality rate in Nigeria. The study relies on the Health Production Function and utilises the Autoregressive Distributed Lag technique to analyse time series data from 1980 to 2019. The results of the estimated model show that fossil energy consumption reduces adult mortality rates in the short run, while co2 emissions increase adult mortality rates both in the short and long run. In addition, government health expenditure follows an inverted U-shape relationship in explaining adult mortality while foreign direct investment has a U-shape relationship with adult mortality in Nigeria. Trade openness and monetary policy are insignificant in the short and long run. It is recommended that the government should substitute clean energy for fossil fuel energy to improve the quality of life, strengthen CO2 emissions tax and ensure health funds are used for the improvement of healthcare service delivery in Nigeria

Government Capital Expenditure and Private Sector Investment in Nigeria: Co-integration Regression and Toda-Yamamoto Causality Analysis

This paper analyses the relationship between government capital expenditure and private investment in Nigeria using time series data spanning from 1981 to 2016. Government capital expenditure was disaggregated into different components and ADF unit root test was employed to establish the stationarity properties of the variables in the model. The result of Johanson co-integration test revealed that the variables have long run relationship. Co-integration regression results suggested that capital expenditure on physical assets and defense displaced private sector investment while government capital expenditure on human capital and public debt servicing promote private sector investment in Nigeria. Furthermore, the results of T-Y causality revealed the bidirectional causality private sector investment and government capital expenditure in Nigeria. Based on these findings, the paper recommends that government capital expenditure should be channel to human capital in order to promote private sector investment in Nigeria. In addition, the Nigerian government should pay more attention to capital expenditure on physical assets since it has a significant impact on private sector investment. Lastly, Nigeria government should address the issue of budget delay, corruption, and mismanagement in Nigerian institutions

Determinants of Trade Flow in the Economic Community of Central African States (ECCAS): Does Governance Matter?

Subject and purpose of work: This study analyzes the determinants of intra-ECCAS trade, with special attention paid to the role of institutional quality from 1996 to 2021. Materials and methods: The study conducts descriptive analysis and utilizes a Negative Binomial Pseudo Maximum Likelihood to analyze the determinants of intra-ECCAS trade. Results: The results suggest that gross domestic product (GDP), population, time taken for export shipment in the exporting countries and the bilateral real exchange rate of the importing partner country enhance intra-ECCAS trade flow. On the other hand, distance, two trading partners being landlocked, time for importing countries and bilateral real exchange rate of the exporting partner discourage this. Furthermore, the findings reveal that institutions are vital to intra-ECCAS trade. Conclusions: T he key d rivers of intra-ECCAS t rade a re GDP, population, t ime t aken for export shipment in the exporting countries, bilateral real exchange rate of the importing partner country, and institutions’ quality measures

Determinants of Trade Flow in the Economic Community of Central African States (ECCAS): Does Governance Matter?

Subject and purpose of work: This study analyzes the determinants of intra-ECCAS trade, with special attention paid to the role of institutional quality from 1996 to 2021. Materials and methods: The study conducts descriptive analysis and utilizes a Negative Binomial Pseudo Maximum Likelihood to analyze the determinants of intra-ECCAS trade. Results: The results suggest that gross domestic product (GDP), population, time taken for export shipment in the exporting countries and the bilateral real exchange rate of the importing partner country enhance intra-ECCAS trade flow. On the other hand, distance, two trading partners being landlocked, time for importing countries and bilateral real exchange rate of the exporting partner discourage this. Furthermore, the findings reveal that institutions are vital to intra-ECCAS trade. Conclusions: T he key d rivers of intra-ECCAS t rade a re GDP, population, t ime t aken for export shipment in the exporting countries, bilateral real exchange rate of the importing partner country, and institutions’ quality measures