Records in a changing world

In the context of this paper, a record is an entry in a sequence of random variables (RV's) that is larger or smaller than all previous entries. After a brief review of the classic theory of records, which is largely restricted to sequences of independent and identically distributed (i.i.d.) RV's, new results for sequences of independent RV's with distributions that broaden or sharpen with time are presented. In particular, we show that when the width of the distribution grows as a power law in time $n$, the mean number of records is asymptotically of order $\ln n$ for distributions with a power law tail (the \textit{Fr\'echet class} of extremal value statistics), of order $(\ln n)^2$ for distributions of exponential type (\textit{Gumbel class}), and of order $n^{1/(\nu+1)}$ for distributions of bounded support (\textit{Weibull class}), where the exponent $\nu$ describes the behaviour of the distribution at the upper (or lower) boundary. Simulations are presented which indicate that, in contrast to the i.i.d. case, the sequence of record breaking events is correlated in such a way that the variance of the number of records is asymptotically smaller than the mean.Comment: 12 pages, 2 figure

The emergence of classical BSE from atypical/Nor98 scrapie

Atypical/Nor98 scrapie (AS) is a prion disease of small ruminants. Currently there are no efficient measures to control this form of prion disease, and, importantly, the zoonotic potential and the risk that AS might represent for other farmed animal species remains largely unknown. In this study, we investigated the capacity of AS to propagate in bovine PrP transgenic mice. Unexpectedly, the transmission of AS isolates originating from 5 different European countries to bovine PrP mice resulted in the propagation of the classical BSE (c-BSE) agent. Detection of prion seeding activity in vitro by protein misfolding cyclic amplification (PMCA) demonstrated that low levels of the c-BSE agent were present in the original AS isolates. C-BSE prion seeding activity was also detected in brain tissue of ovine PrP mice inoculated with limiting dilutions (endpoint titration) of ovine AS isolates. These results are consistent with the emergence and replication of c-BSE prions during the in vivo propagation of AS isolates in the natural host. These data also indicate that c-BSE prions, a known zonotic agent in humans, can emerge as a dominant prion strain during passage of AS between different species. These findings provide an unprecedented insight into the evolution of mammalian prion strain properties triggered by intra- and interspecies passage. From a public health perspective, the presence of c-BSE in AS isolates suggest that cattle exposure to small ruminant tissues and products could lead to new occurrences of c-BSE

Focus on high energy particles and atmospheric processes

The letters published in the ‘Focus issue on high energy particles and atmospheric processes’ serve to broaden the discussion about the influence of high energy particles on the atmosphere beyond their possible effects on clouds and climate. These letters link climate and meteorological processes with atmospheric electricity, atmospheric chemistry, high energy physics and aerosol science from the smallest molecular cluster ions through to liquid droplets. Progress in such a disparate and complex topic is very likely to benefit from continued interdisciplinary interactions between traditionally distinct science areas

CHASE-PL Climate Projection dataset over Poland – bias adjustment of EURO-CORDEX simulations

The CHASE-PL (Climate change impact assessment for selected sectors in Poland) Climate Projections – Gridded Daily Precipitation and Temperature dataset 5 km (CPLCP-GDPT5) consists of projected daily minimum and maximum air temperatures and precipitation totals of nine EURO-CORDEX regional climate model outputs bias corrected and downscaled to a 5 km  ×  5 km grid. Simulations of one historical period (1971–2000) and two future horizons (2021–2050 and 2071–2100) assuming two representative concentration pathways (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) were produced. We used the quantile mapping method and corrected any systematic seasonal bias in these simulations before assessing the changes in annual and seasonal means of precipitation and temperature over Poland. Projected changes estimated from the multi-model ensemble mean showed that annual means of temperature are expected to increase steadily by 1 °C until 2021–2050 and by 2 °C until 2071–2100 assuming the RCP4.5 emission scenario. Assuming the RCP8.5 emission scenario, this can reach up to almost 4 °C by 2071–2100. Similarly to temperature, projected changes in regional annual means of precipitation are expected to increase by 6 to 10 % and by 8 to 16 % for the two future horizons and RCPs, respectively. Similarly, individual model simulations also exhibited warmer and wetter conditions on an annual scale, showing an intensification of the magnitude of the change at the end of the 21st century. The same applied for projected changes in seasonal means of temperature showing a higher winter warming rate by up to 0.5 °C compared to the other seasons. However, projected changes in seasonal means of precipitation by the individual models largely differ and are sometimes inconsistent, exhibiting spatial variations which depend on the selected season, location, future horizon, and RCP. The overall range of the 90 % confidence interval predicted by the ensemble of multi-model simulations was found to likely vary between −7 % (projected for summer assuming the RCP4.5 emission scenario) and +40 % (projected for winter assuming the RCP8.5 emission scenario) by the end of the 21st century. Finally, this high-resolution bias-corrected product can serve as a basis for climate change impact and adaptation studies for many sectors over Poland. The CPLCP-GDPT5 dataset is publicly available at http://dx.doi.org/10.4121/uuid:e940ec1a-71a0-449e-bbe3-29217f2ba31d

Air temperature variations and gradients along the coast and fjords of western Spitsbergen

Daily temperature measurements from six meteorological stations along the coast and fjords of western Spitsbergen have been digitized and quality controlled in a Norwegian, Russian and Polish collaboration. Complete daily data series have been reconstructed back to 1948 for all of the stations. One of the station’s monthly temperature series has previously been extended back to 1898 and is included in this study. The long-term series show large temperature variability on western Spitsbergen with colder periods in the 1910s and 1960s and warmer periods in the 1930s, 1950s and in the 21st century. The most recent years are the warmest ones in the instrumental records. There is a positive and statistically significant trend in the annual times series for all of the stations; however, the strongest warming is seen in winter and spring. For the period 1979-2015, the linear trends range from 1.0 to 1.38°C/decade for the annual series and from 2.0 to 2.38°C/decade in winter. Threshold statistics demonstrate a decrease in the number of cold days per year and an increase in the number of warm days. A decreasing inter-annual variability is observed. In winter, spring and autumn, the stations in the northernmost areas of west Spitsbergen and in the innermost parts of Isfjorden are the coldest ones. In summer, however, the southernmost station is the coldest one

Atypical/Nor98 Scrapie Infectivity in Sheep Peripheral Tissues

Atypical/Nor98 scrapie was first identified in 1998 in Norway. It is now considered as a worldwide disease of small ruminants and currently represents a significant part of the detected transmissible spongiform encephalopathies (TSE) cases in Europe. Atypical/Nor98 scrapie cases were reported in ARR/ARR sheep, which are highly resistant to BSE and other small ruminants TSE agents. The biology and pathogenesis of the Atypical/Nor98 scrapie agent in its natural host is still poorly understood. However, based on the absence of detectable abnormal PrP in peripheral tissues of affected individuals, human and animal exposure risk to this specific TSE agent has been considered low. In this study we demonstrate that infectivity can accumulate, even if no abnormal PrP is detectable, in lymphoid tissues, nerves, and muscles from natural and/or experimental Atypical/Nor98 scrapie cases. Evidence is provided that, in comparison to other TSE agents, samples containing Atypical/Nor98 scrapie infectivity could remain PrPSc negative. This feature will impact detection of Atypical/Nor98 scrapie cases in the field, and highlights the need to review current evaluations of the disease prevalence and potential transmissibility. Finally, an estimate is made of the infectivity loads accumulating in peripheral tissues in both Atypical/Nor98 and classical scrapie cases that currently enter the food chain. The results obtained indicate that dietary exposure risk to small ruminants TSE agents may be higher than commonly believed

Public Sector Reform and Governance for Adaptation: Implications of New Public Management for Adaptive Capacity in Mexico and Norway

Although many governments are assuming the responsibility of initiating adaptation policy in relation to climate change, the compatibility of “governance-for-adaptation” with the current paradigms of public administration has generally been overlooked. Over the last several decades, countries around the globe have embraced variants of the philosophy of administration broadly called “New Public Management” (NPM) in an effort to improve administrative efficiencies and the provision of public services. Using evidence from a case study of reforms in the building sector in Norway, and a case study of water and flood risk management in central Mexico, we analyze the implications of the adoption of the tenets of NPM for adaptive capacity. Our cases illustrate that some of the key attributes associated with governance for adaptation—namely, technical and financial capacities; institutional memory, learning and knowledge; and participation and accountability—have been eroded by NPM reforms. Despite improvements in specific operational tasks of the public sector in each case, we show that the success of NPM reforms presumes the existence of core elements of governance that have often been found lacking, including solid institutional frameworks and accountability. Our analysis illustrates the importance of considering both longer-term adaptive capacities and short-term efficiency goals in public sector administration reform