Eigenvalue Decomposition of Time Series with Application to the Czech Business Cycle

We follow a Beveridge-Nelson like time series decomposition method (into trend, business cycle and irregular components), and examine a stylized model of price inflation determination using the Czech data. We characterize the estimated components of CPI, IPPI and import inflations, together with the real production wage and real output, and survey their basic correlation properties; furthermore we compute structural innovations imposing restrictions on their long-run effects, draw the impulse responses, and test the results by means of bootstrap simulation. We conclude that major room for further refinement of the research is found in two areas, First, from an economist's perspective, in the construction of real marginal cost indicators, and second, from a statistiacian's perspective, in further investigation of the robustness of the method.bootstrap, business cycle, inflation, structural VAR, time series decomposition

An Economy in Transition and DSGE: What the Czech National Bank’s New Projection Model Needs

Since the introduction of the inflation targeting regime in 1998 the Czech National Bank has made considerable progress in developing formal tools for supporting its Forecasting and Policy Analysis System. This paper documents the advances in the ongoing research aimed at developing a DSGE small open economy model designed to capture some of the most important features of the Czech economy - both the business-cycle regularities and the recent developments associated with the economy's transition and its convergence towards the industrialized European countries. The model in its current form is able to capture trends in relative prices, allow for medium-convergence in expenditure shares, and deal with the undercapitalization and investment inflow issues. Besides the model exhibits real and nominal rigidities that are in line with the recent New Open Economy Macroeconomics literature built fully on first principles. The innovative features of our model include the international currency pricing scheme permitting flexible calibration of import and export price elasticities along with the disconnect of the nominal exchange rate, the policy reaction function with a parameterized forecast horizon, and a generalized capital accumulation equation with imperfect intertemporal substitution of investment..

Hormone-regulated expansins : expression, localization, and cell wall biomechanics in Arabidopsis root growth

Expansins facilitate cell expansion by mediating pH-dependent cell wall (CW) loosening. However, the role of expansins in controlling CW biomechanical properties in specific tissues and organs remains elusive. We monitored hormonal responsiveness and spatial specificity of expression and localization of expansins predicted to be the direct targets of cytokinin signaling in Arabidopsis (Arabidopsis thaliana). We found EXPANSIN1 (EXPA1) homogenously distributed throughout the CW of columella/lateral root cap, while EXPA10 and EXPA14 localized predominantly at 3-cell boundaries in the epidermis/cortex in various root zones. EXPA15 revealed cell-type-specific combination of homogenous vs. 3-cell boundaries localization. By comparing Brillouin frequency shift and AFM-measured Young’s modulus, we demonstrated Brillouin light scattering (BLS) as a tool suitable for non-invasive in vivo quantitative assessment of CW viscoelasticity. Using both BLS and AFM, we showed that EXPA1 overexpression upregulated CW stiffness in the root transition zone (TZ). The dexamethasone-controlled EXPA1 overexpression induced fast changes in the transcription of numerous CW-associated genes, including several EXPAs and XYLOGLUCAN: XYLOGLUCOSYL TRANSFERASEs (XTHs), and associated with rapid pectin methylesterification determined by in situ Fouriertransform infrared spectroscopy in the root TZ. The EXPA1-induced CW remodeling is associated with the shortening of the root apical meristem, leading to root growth arrest. Based on our results, we propose that expansins control root growth by a delicate orchestration of CW biomechanical properties, possibly regulating both CW loosening and CW remodeling.peer-reviewe

The Botanical Record of Archaeobotany Italian Network - BRAIN: a cooperative network, database and website

Con autorización de la revista para autores CSIC[EN] The BRAIN (Botanical Records of Archaeobotany Italian Network) database and network was developed by the cooperation of archaeobotanists working on Italian archaeological sites. Examples of recent research including pollen or other plant remains in analytical and synthetic papers are reported as an exemplar reference list. This paper retraces the main steps of the creation of BRAIN, from the scientific need for the first research cooperation to the website which has a free online access since 2015.Peer reviewe

The Future of Oil: Geology versus Technology

Abstract We discuss and reconcile the geological and the economic/technological views concerning the future of world oil production and prices. We present a nonlinear econometric model of the world oil market that encompasses both views. The model performs far better than existing empirical models in forecasting oil prices and oil output out of sample. Its point forecast is for a near doubling of the real price of oil over the coming decade. The error bands are wide, and reflect sharply differing judgments on ultimately recoverable reserves, and on future price elasticities of oil demand and supply. JEL Classification: C11, C53, Q31, Q32

Risky Bank Lending and Optimal Capital Adequacy Regulation

We study the welfare properties of a New Keynesian monetary economy with an essential role for risky bank lending. Banks lend funds deposited by households to a financial accelerator sector, and face penalties for maintaining insufficient net worth. The loan contract specifies an unconditional lending rate, which implies that banks can make loan losses. Their main response is to raise lending rates to rebuild net worth. Prudential rules that adjust minimum capital adequacy requirements in response to loan losses significantly increase welfare. But the gains from eliminating limited liability and moral hazard would be an order of magnitude larger.Banks;Corporate sector;Economic models;Moral hazard;capital adequacy, banking, capital goods, bankers, bank capital, bank lending, capital losses, capital adequacy ratio, deposit insurance, banking sector, bank balance sheets, bank equity, prudential regulation, banker, banking sectors, capital stock, bank deposits, capital regulation, bankrupt, state bank, bank loans, bank capital regulation, bank runs, nominal price, exogenous shocks, bank interest rate, indexation, consumer price index, private capital, bank lending rates, bank holdings, banking system, bank interest, banking systems, bankruptcies, capital adequacy ratios, capital income, credit policy, government securities, inflation rate, bank funding, dividend policy, corporate loans, government bonds, recapitalization, bank profits, nominal capital

A Multivariate Filter for Measuring Potential Output and the NAIRU Application to the Czech Republic

This paper presents a multivariate (MV) methodology for obtaining measures of excess demand that can facilitate discussion of monetary policy issues and improve policy decisions. Using data for the Czech Republic, a growing economy undergoing major structural change, it shows how the use of more information to condition the paths of potential output and the non accelerating inflation rate of unemployment (NAIRU) improves on univariate methods as the Hodrick-Prescott (HP) filter.Unemployment;Production;Economic models;nairu, equation, equations, covariance, random walk, unemployment rate, forecasting, standard deviations, time series, constant term, rate of change, rate of unemployment, econometrics, random variables, correlation, time series analysis, samples, prediction, structural unemployment, survey

Modeling with Macro-Financial Linkages

This paper develops a stylized, small, open economy macro model that incorporates an explicit and non-trivial role for financial intermediation. It illustrates how such a model could be used for policy analysis in an emerging market economy where policymakers are concerned about risks associated with rapid credit growth, financial dollarization, and foreign borrowing, while lacking traditional tools to effect monetary policy transmission, and hence could resort to more direct instruments, such as foreign exchange market intervention and regulatory and administrative measures. Calibrating the model to a stylized emerging European economy, the paper simulates real and financial sector implications of various external and policy-related shocks that could be used as input for monetary policy making.Financial intermediation;Dollarization;Credit controls;Banks;Credit expansion;Credit risk;Economic models;Emerging markets;External borrowing;External shocks;Financial sector;bank loans, bank lending, banking, bank credit, banking sector, terms of trade, domestic goods, domestic prices, domestic banks, elasticity of substitution, domestic firms, monetary authority, world price, foreign exchange, bank lending rate, bank lending rates, perfect substitutes, net exports, balance of payments, bank balance sheets, aggregate demand, interbank market, working capital, external funding, reserve requirement, reserve ratio, competitive markets, bank deposits, foreign exchange market, open economy, world economy, bank borrowing, domestic shocks, current account balance, import price, equilibrium model, open economies, nontradable goods, credit control, domestic producers, export prices, banking sectors, domestic banking system, world prices, banking activities, constant elasticity of substitution, domestic aggregate demand, banks loans, domestic price, bank capital, domestic demand, world demand, market equilibrium, price of imports, bank funding, bank activities, exchange rate policies, perfect competition, exchange rate regime, nominal price, banking systems, external finance, foreign ownership, global market, banks ? balance sheets, banking sector problems, domestic production, bank products, banking system, nominal interest rate, bank borrowers, national bank, competitive advantage

Structural Models in Real Time

This paper outlines a simple approach for incorporating extraneous predictions into structural models. The method allows the forecaster to combine predictions derived from any source in a way that is consistent with the underlying structure of the model. The method is flexible enough that predictions can be up-weighted or down-weighted on a case-by-case basis. We illustrate the approach using a small quarterly structural and real-time data for the United States.Economic forecasting;Economic indicators;Economic models;inflation, equation, forecasting, prediction, equations, predictions, standard deviations, monetary policy, real interest rate, correlation, correlations, standard deviation, survey, nominal interest rate, rate of inflation, stochastic processes, inflation rate, inflation equation, inflation forecasts, probabilities, missing observation, econometrics, measurement error, rational expectations, horizontal axis, surveys, random walk, missing observations, monetary economics