Clinical surveillance for human astrovirus in Monastir region, Tunisia

Abstract. Background/aims: Astroviruses (AstVs) are enteric viruses that can cause gastroenteritis in children. This study is part of monitoring the circulation of astroviruses in children hospitalized and/or outpatients for acute gastroenteritis at the primary care center of Ouerdanine or at the Pediatric Department of the University Hospital Fattouma-Bourguiba (Monastir, Tunisia). The aims of our study were to know the prevalence of human astrovirus in clinical samples of children, characterize the strains and evaluate the infectivity of isolated strains on cell culture. Methods: Fifty stool samples were collected from children under five years old in the region of Monastir (Tunisia)from October 2010 to June 2011. All specimens were subjected to RT-PCR amplification followed by sequencing and phylogenetic analysis. Results: The study shows a low prevalence of astrovirus (4 %) in children. The two positive samples obtained were HAstV type 3. Samples that were RT-PCR positive were cultured in CaCO-2 cells and the presence of infectious viral particles was confirmed. The phylogenetic analysis shows that the different HAstV-3 strains isolated in Tunisia are grouped into two clusters. The first cluster includes strains obtained in 2004, which belong to lineage HAstV-3a, while strains isolated in 2010 belong to lineage HAstV-3c. Conclusions: This study is part of monitoring the circulation of astroviruses in children younger than five years old from Monastir region, Tunisia. The results show low prevalence (4 %). All genotyped samples belonged to lineage HAstV-3c, which could be presently emerging. Two different lineages have been isolated in Tunisia: HAstV-3a in 2004 and HAstV-3c in 2010

Global burden of 288 causes of death and life expectancy decomposition in 204 countries and territories and 811 subnational locations, 1990–2021: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

BACKGROUND Regular, detailed reporting on population health by underlying cause of death is fundamental for public health decision making. Cause-specific estimates of mortality and the subsequent effects on life expectancy worldwide are valuable metrics to gauge progress in reducing mortality rates. These estimates are particularly important following large-scale mortality spikes, such as the COVID-19 pandemic. When systematically analysed, mortality rates and life expectancy allow comparisons of the consequences of causes of death globally and over time, providing a nuanced understanding of the effect of these causes on global populations. METHODS The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2021 cause-of-death analysis estimated mortality and years of life lost (YLLs) from 288 causes of death by age-sex-location-year in 204 countries and territories and 811 subnational locations for each year from 1990 until 2021. The analysis used 56 604 data sources, including data from vital registration and verbal autopsy as well as surveys, censuses, surveillance systems, and cancer registries, among others. As with previous GBD rounds, cause-specific death rates for most causes were estimated using the Cause of Death Ensemble model-a modelling tool developed for GBD to assess the out-of-sample predictive validity of different statistical models and covariate permutations and combine those results to produce cause-specific mortality estimates-with alternative strategies adapted to model causes with insufficient data, substantial changes in reporting over the study period, or unusual epidemiology. YLLs were computed as the product of the number of deaths for each cause-age-sex-location-year and the standard life expectancy at each age. As part of the modelling process, uncertainty intervals (UIs) were generated using the 2·5th and 97·5th percentiles from a 1000-draw distribution for each metric. We decomposed life expectancy by cause of death, location, and year to show cause-specific effects on life expectancy from 1990 to 2021. We also used the coefficient of variation and the fraction of population affected by 90% of deaths to highlight concentrations of mortality. Findings are reported in counts and age-standardised rates. Methodological improvements for cause-of-death estimates in GBD 2021 include the expansion of under-5-years age group to include four new age groups, enhanced methods to account for stochastic variation of sparse data, and the inclusion of COVID-19 and other pandemic-related mortality-which includes excess mortality associated with the pandemic, excluding COVID-19, lower respiratory infections, measles, malaria, and pertussis. For this analysis, 199 new country-years of vital registration cause-of-death data, 5 country-years of surveillance data, 21 country-years of verbal autopsy data, and 94 country-years of other data types were added to those used in previous GBD rounds. FINDINGS The leading causes of age-standardised deaths globally were the same in 2019 as they were in 1990; in descending order, these were, ischaemic heart disease, stroke, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, and lower respiratory infections. In 2021, however, COVID-19 replaced stroke as the second-leading age-standardised cause of death, with 94·0 deaths (95% UI 89·2-100·0) per 100 000 population. The COVID-19 pandemic shifted the rankings of the leading five causes, lowering stroke to the third-leading and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease to the fourth-leading position. In 2021, the highest age-standardised death rates from COVID-19 occurred in sub-Saharan Africa (271·0 deaths [250·1-290·7] per 100 000 population) and Latin America and the Caribbean (195·4 deaths [182·1-211·4] per 100 000 population). The lowest age-standardised death rates from COVID-19 were in the high-income super-region (48·1 deaths [47·4-48·8] per 100 000 population) and southeast Asia, east Asia, and Oceania (23·2 deaths [16·3-37·2] per 100 000 population). Globally, life expectancy steadily improved between 1990 and 2019 for 18 of the 22 investigated causes. Decomposition of global and regional life expectancy showed the positive effect that reductions in deaths from enteric infections, lower respiratory infections, stroke, and neonatal deaths, among others have contributed to improved survival over the study period. However, a net reduction of 1·6 years occurred in global life expectancy between 2019 and 2021, primarily due to increased death rates from COVID-19 and other pandemic-related mortality. Life expectancy was highly variable between super-regions over the study period, with southeast Asia, east Asia, and Oceania gaining 8·3 years (6·7-9·9) overall, while having the smallest reduction in life expectancy due to COVID-19 (0·4 years). The largest reduction in life expectancy due to COVID-19 occurred in Latin America and the Caribbean (3·6 years). Additionally, 53 of the 288 causes of death were highly concentrated in locations with less than 50% of the global population as of 2021, and these causes of death became progressively more concentrated since 1990, when only 44 causes showed this pattern. The concentration phenomenon is discussed heuristically with respect to enteric and lower respiratory infections, malaria, HIV/AIDS, neonatal disorders, tuberculosis, and measles. INTERPRETATION Long-standing gains in life expectancy and reductions in many of the leading causes of death have been disrupted by the COVID-19 pandemic, the adverse effects of which were spread unevenly among populations. Despite the pandemic, there has been continued progress in combatting several notable causes of death, leading to improved global life expectancy over the study period. Each of the seven GBD super-regions showed an overall improvement from 1990 and 2021, obscuring the negative effect in the years of the pandemic. Additionally, our findings regarding regional variation in causes of death driving increases in life expectancy hold clear policy utility. Analyses of shifting mortality trends reveal that several causes, once widespread globally, are now increasingly concentrated geographically. These changes in mortality concentration, alongside further investigation of changing risks, interventions, and relevant policy, present an important opportunity to deepen our understanding of mortality-reduction strategies. Examining patterns in mortality concentration might reveal areas where successful public health interventions have been implemented. Translating these successes to locations where certain causes of death remain entrenched can inform policies that work to improve life expectancy for people everywhere. FUNDING Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation

Clinical surveillance for human astrovirus in Monastir region, Tunisia

Abstract. Background/aims: Astroviruses (AstVs) are enteric viruses that can cause gastroenteritis in children. This study is part of monitoring the circulation of astroviruses in children hospitalized and/or outpatients for acute gastroenteritis at the primary care center of Ouerdanine or at the Pediatric Department of the University Hospital Fattouma-Bourguiba (Monastir, Tunisia). The aims of our study were to know the prevalence of human astrovirus in clinical samples of children, characterize the strains and evaluate the infectivity of isolated strains on cell culture. Methods: Fifty stool samples were collected from children under five years old in the region of Monastir (Tunisia)from October 2010 to June 2011. All specimens were subjected to RT-PCR amplification followed by sequencing and phylogenetic analysis. Results: The study shows a low prevalence of astrovirus (4 %) in children. The two positive samples obtained were HAstV type 3. Samples that were RT-PCR positive were cultured in CaCO-2 cells and the presence of infectious viral particles was confirmed. The phylogenetic analysis shows that the different HAstV-3 strains isolated in Tunisia are grouped into two clusters. The first cluster includes strains obtained in 2004, which belong to lineage HAstV-3a, while strains isolated in 2010 belong to lineage HAstV-3c. Conclusions: This study is part of monitoring the circulation of astroviruses in children younger than five years old from Monastir region, Tunisia. The results show low prevalence (4 %). All genotyped samples belonged to lineage HAstV-3c, which could be presently emerging. Two different lineages have been isolated in Tunisia: HAstV-3a in 2004 and HAstV-3c in 2010

Chemical composition of 8 <it>eucalyptus</it> species' essential oils and the evaluation of their antibacterial, antifungal and antiviral activities

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>In 1957, Tunisia introduced 117 species of <it>Eucalyptus</it>; they have been used as fire wood, for the production of mine wood and to fight erosion. Actually, <it>Eucalyptus</it> essential oil is traditionally used to treat respiratory tract disorders such as pharyngitis, bronchitis, and sinusitis. A few investigations were reported on the biological activities of <it>Eucalyptus</it> oils worldwide. In Tunisia, our previous works conducted in 2010 and 2011 had been the first reports to study the antibacterial activities against reference strains. At that time it was not possible to evaluate their antimicrobial activities against clinical bacterial strains and other pathogens such as virus and fungi.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>The essential oils of eight <it>Eucalyptus</it> species harvested from the Jbel Abderrahman, Korbous (North East Tunisia) and Souinet arboreta (North of Tunisia) were evaluated for their antimicrobial activities by disc diffusion and microbroth dilution methods against seven bacterial isolates: <it>Haemophilus influenzae</it>, <it>Klebsiella pneumoniae</it>, <it>Pseudomonas aeruginosa</it>, <it>Staphylococcus aureus</it>, <it>Streptococcus agalactiae</it>, <it>Streptococcus pneumoniae</it> and <it>Streptococcus pyogenes</it>. In addition, the bactericidal, fungicidal and the antiviral activities of the tested oils were carried out.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Twenty five components were identified by GC/FID and GC/MS. These components were used to correlate with the biological activities of the tested oils. The chemical principal component analysis identified three groups, each of them constituted a chemotype. According to the values of zone diameter and percentage of the inhibition (zdi, % I, respectively), four groups and subgroups of bacterial strains and three groups of fungal strains were characterized by their sensitivity levels to <it>Eucalyptus</it> oils. The cytotoxic effect and the antiviral activity varied significantly within <it>Eucalyptus</it> species oils.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p><it>E. odorata</it> showed the strongest activity against <it>S. aureus</it>, <it>H. influenzae</it>, <it>S. agalactiae</it>, <it>S. pyogenes</it>, <it>S. pneumoniae</it> and against all the tested fungal strains. In addition, <it>E. odorata</it> oil showed the most cytotoxic effect. However, the best antiviral activity appeared with <it>E. bicostata</it>. Virus pretreatment with <it>E. bicostata</it> essential oil showed better antiviral activity (IC₅₀ = 0.7 mg/ml, SI = 22.8) than cell-pretreatment (IC₅₀ = 4.8 mg/ml, SI = 3.33). The essential oil of <it>E. astringens</it> showed antiviral activity only when incubated with virus prior to cell infection. This activity was dose-dependent and the antiviral activity diminished with the decreasing essential oil concentration.</p

Evaluation of prognostic risk models for postoperative pulmonary complications in adult patients undergoing major abdominal surgery: a systematic review and international external validation cohort study

Background Stratifying risk of postoperative pulmonary complications after major abdominal surgery allows clinicians to modify risk through targeted interventions and enhanced monitoring. In this study, we aimed to identify and validate prognostic models against a new consensus definition of postoperative pulmonary complications. Methods We did a systematic review and international external validation cohort study. The systematic review was done in accordance with the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses guidelines. We searched MEDLINE and Embase on March 1, 2020, for articles published in English that reported on risk prediction models for postoperative pulmonary complications following abdominal surgery. External validation of existing models was done within a prospective international cohort study of adult patients (≥18 years) undergoing major abdominal surgery. Data were collected between Jan 1, 2019, and April 30, 2019, in the UK, Ireland, and Australia. Discriminative ability and prognostic accuracy summary statistics were compared between models for the 30-day postoperative pulmonary complication rate as defined by the Standardised Endpoints in Perioperative Medicine Core Outcome Measures in Perioperative and Anaesthetic Care (StEP-COMPAC). Model performance was compared using the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROCC). Findings In total, we identified 2903 records from our literature search; of which, 2514 (86·6%) unique records were screened, 121 (4·8%) of 2514 full texts were assessed for eligibility, and 29 unique prognostic models were identified. Nine (31·0%) of 29 models had score development reported only, 19 (65·5%) had undergone internal validation, and only four (13·8%) had been externally validated. Data to validate six eligible models were collected in the international external validation cohort study. Data from 11 591 patients were available, with an overall postoperative pulmonary complication rate of 7·8% (n=903). None of the six models showed good discrimination (defined as AUROCC ≥0·70) for identifying postoperative pulmonary complications, with the Assess Respiratory Risk in Surgical Patients in Catalonia score showing the best discrimination (AUROCC 0·700 [95% CI 0·683–0·717]). Interpretation In the pre-COVID-19 pandemic data, variability in the risk of pulmonary complications (StEP-COMPAC definition) following major abdominal surgery was poorly described by existing prognostication tools. To improve surgical safety during the COVID-19 pandemic recovery and beyond, novel risk stratification tools are required. Funding British Journal of Surgery Society

Global burden of 288 causes of death and life expectancy decomposition in 204 countries and territories and 811 subnational locations, 1990–2021: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

BackgroundRegular, detailed reporting on population health by underlying cause of death is fundamental for public health decision making. Cause-specific estimates of mortality and the subsequent effects on life expectancy worldwide are valuable metrics to gauge progress in reducing mortality rates. These estimates are particularly important following large-scale mortality spikes, such as the COVID-19 pandemic. When systematically analysed, mortality rates and life expectancy allow comparisons of the consequences of causes of death globally and over time, providing a nuanced understanding of the effect of these causes on global populations.MethodsThe Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2021 cause-of-death analysis estimated mortality and years of life lost (YLLs) from 288 causes of death by age-sex-location-year in 204 countries and territories and 811 subnational locations for each year from 1990 until 2021. The analysis used 56 604 data sources, including data from vital registration and verbal autopsy as well as surveys, censuses, surveillance systems, and cancer registries, among others. As with previous GBD rounds, cause-specific death rates for most causes were estimated using the Cause of Death Ensemble model—a modelling tool developed for GBD to assess the out-of-sample predictive validity of different statistical models and covariate permutations and combine those results to produce cause-specific mortality estimates—with alternative strategies adapted to model causes with insufficient data, substantial changes in reporting over the study period, or unusual epidemiology. YLLs were computed as the product of the number of deaths for each cause-age-sex-location-year and the standard life expectancy at each age. As part of the modelling process, uncertainty intervals (UIs) were generated using the 2·5th and 97·5th percentiles from a 1000-draw distribution for each metric. We decomposed life expectancy by cause of death, location, and year to show cause-specific effects on life expectancy from 1990 to 2021. We also used the coefficient of variation and the fraction of population affected by 90% of deaths to highlight concentrations of mortality. Findings are reported in counts and age-standardised rates. Methodological improvements for cause-of-death estimates in GBD 2021 include the expansion of under-5-years age group to include four new age groups, enhanced methods to account for stochastic variation of sparse data, and the inclusion of COVID-19 and other pandemic-related mortality—which includes excess mortality associated with the pandemic, excluding COVID-19, lower respiratory infections, measles, malaria, and pertussis. For this analysis, 199 new country-years of vital registration cause-of-death data, 5 country-years of surveillance data, 21 country-years of verbal autopsy data, and 94 country-years of other data types were added to those used in previous GBD rounds.FindingsThe leading causes of age-standardised deaths globally were the same in 2019 as they were in 1990; in descending order, these were, ischaemic heart disease, stroke, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, and lower respiratory infections. In 2021, however, COVID-19 replaced stroke as the second-leading age-standardised cause of death, with 94·0 deaths (95% UI 89·2–100·0) per 100 000 population. The COVID-19 pandemic shifted the rankings of the leading five causes, lowering stroke to the third-leading and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease to the fourth-leading position. In 2021, the highest age-standardised death rates from COVID-19 occurred in sub-Saharan Africa (271·0 deaths [250·1–290·7] per 100 000 population) and Latin America and the Caribbean (195·4 deaths [182·1–211·4] per 100 000 population). The lowest age-standardised death rates from COVID-19 were in the high-income super-region (48·1 deaths [47·4–48·8] per 100 000 population) and southeast Asia, east Asia, and Oceania (23·2 deaths [16·3–37·2] per 100 000 population). Globally, life expectancy steadily improved between 1990 and 2019 for 18 of the 22 investigated causes. Decomposition of global and regional life expectancy showed the positive effect that reductions in deaths from enteric infections, lower respiratory infections, stroke, and neonatal deaths, among others have contributed to improved survival over the study period. However, a net reduction of 1·6 years occurred in global life expectancy between 2019 and 2021, primarily due to increased death rates from COVID-19 and other pandemic-related mortality. Life expectancy was highly variable between super-regions over the study period, with southeast Asia, east Asia, and Oceania gaining 8·3 years (6·7–9·9) overall, while having the smallest reduction in life expectancy due to COVID-19 (0·4 years). The largest reduction in life expectancy due to COVID-19 occurred in Latin America and the Caribbean (3·6 years). Additionally, 53 of the 288 causes of death were highly concentrated in locations with less than 50% of the global population as of 2021, and these causes of death became progressively more concentrated since 1990, when only 44 causes showed this pattern. The concentration phenomenon is discussed heuristically with respect to enteric and lower respiratory infections, malaria, HIV/AIDS, neonatal disorders, tuberculosis, and measles.InterpretationLong-standing gains in life expectancy and reductions in many of the leading causes of death have been disrupted by the COVID-19 pandemic, the adverse effects of which were spread unevenly among populations. Despite the pandemic, there has been continued progress in combatting several notable causes of death, leading to improved global life expectancy over the study period. Each of the seven GBD super-regions showed an overall improvement from 1990 and 2021, obscuring the negative effect in the years of the pandemic. Additionally, our findings regarding regional variation in causes of death driving increases in life expectancy hold clear policy utility. Analyses of shifting mortality trends reveal that several causes, once widespread globally, are now increasingly concentrated geographically. These changes in mortality concentration, alongside further investigation of changing risks, interventions, and relevant policy, present an important opportunity to deepen our understanding of mortality-reduction strategies. Examining patterns in mortality concentration might reveal areas where successful public health interventions have been implemented. Translating these successes to locations where certain causes of death remain entrenched can inform policies that work to improve life expectancy for people everywhere