Impact of the spatial resolution of the Greenland ice sheet surface mass balance modelling using the regional climate model MAR with the aim to force an ice sheet model

In this work, we have modelled at different spatial resolutions (10, 15, 20... up to 50km) the Greenland ice sheet (GrIS) surface mass balance (SMB) over the 1991-2010 period by using the regional climate model MAR (Modèle Atmosphérique Régional), validated for the GrIS at 25km resolution and forced every 6 hours by the ERA-INTERIM reanalysis. As part of the ICE2SEA project, the 25km-resolution SMB outputs of the MAR model are used as forcing fields for ice sheet models, in order to produce future projections of the GrIS contribution to sea-level rise over the next 200 years.Although the current spatial resolution of the MAR model (25km) is much higher than the general circulation models (GCM) resolution (150-300km), the ice sheet models often run at a higher resolution (typically 5-10km). Nevertheless, such higher-resolution runs of the MAR model on the same integration domain generate a significant additional computing time and are not doable until now. Moreover, conventional linear interpolations of the SMB outputs onto a higher-resolution grid, generally induce biases because ice sheet masks at different spatial resolutions do not match and the SMB is a very complex function of the spatial resolution/topography. Therefore, enhanced methods of spatial interpolation are needed for using the 25km MAR SMB outputs into the ice sheet models in the framework of the ICE2SEA project.The SMB outputs provided by the 15, 20, . . . km-resolution MAR runs are interpolated onto the 10km MAR grid and compared with the SMB outputs coming from the 10km MAR runs. Several “intelligent” SMB interpolations are tested here for improving the comparison with the 10km MAR results. This work aims to assess the lack of accuracy when interpolating SMB outputs from the MAR model onto a higher-resolution grid, compared to results of MAR running at this higher resolution. We determine also which maximal resolution is required to force with reliability ice sheet models instead of using SMB outputs coming directly from very high resolution runs, taking into account the significant additional computing time needed for such simulations

Introduction : From Fundamentals to Advances in Crowdfunding Research and Practice

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"Important role of the mid-tropospheric atmospheric circulation in the recent surface melt increase over the Greenland ice sheet"

Since 2007, there has been a series of surface melt records over the Greenland ice sheet (GrIS), continuing the trend towards increased melt observed since the end of the 1990s. The last two decades are characterized by an increase of negative phases of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) favouring warmer and drier summers than normal over GrIS. In this context, we use a circulation type classification based on daily 500 hPa geopotential height to evaluate the role of atmospheric dynamics in this surface melt acceleration for the last two decades. Due to the lack of direct observations, the interannual melt variability is gauged here by the summer (June-July-August) mean temperature from reanalyses at 700 hPa over Greenland; analogous atmospheric circulations in the past show that similar to 70% of the 1993-2012 warming at 700 hPa over Greenland has been driven by changes in the atmospheric flow frequencies. Indeed, the occurrence of anticyclones centred over the GrIS at the surface and at 500 hPa has doubled since the end of 1990s, which induces more frequent southerly warm air advection along the western Greenland coast and over the neighbouring Canadian Arctic Archipelago (CAA). These changes in the NAO modes explain also why no significant warming has been observed these last summers over Svalbard, where northerly atmospheric flows are twice as frequent as before. Therefore, the recent warmer summers over GrIS and CAA cannot be considered as a long-term climate warming but are more a consequence of NAO variability affecting atmospheric heat transport. Although no global model from the CMIP5 database projects subsequent significant changes in NAO through this century, we cannot exclude the possibility that the observed NAO changes are due to global warming

How uncertain are precipitation and peak flow estimates for the July 2021 flooding event?

The disastrous July 2021 flooding event made us question the ability of current hydrometeorological tools in providing timely and reliable flood forecasts for unprecedented events. This is an urgent concern since extreme events are increasing due to global warming, and existing methods are usually limited to more frequently observed events with the usual flood generation processes. For the July 2021 event, we simulated the hourly streamflows of seven catchments located in western Germany by combining seven partly polarimetric, radar-based quantitative precipitation estimates (QPEs) with two hydrological models: a conceptual lumped model (GR4H) and a physically based, 3D distributed model (ParFlowCLM). GR4H parameters were calibrated with an emphasis on high flows using historical discharge observations, whereas ParFlowCLM parameters were estimated based on landscape and soil properties. The key results are as follows. (1) With no correction of the vertical profiles of radar variables, radar-based QPE products underestimated the total precipitation depth relative to rain gauges due to intense collision–coalescence processes near the surface, i.e., below the height levels monitored by the radars. (2) Correcting the vertical profiles of radar variables led to substantial improvements. (3) The probability of exceeding the highest measured peak flow before July 2021 was highly impacted by the QPE product, and this impact depended on the catchment for both models. (4) The estimation of model parameters had a larger impact than the choice of QPE product, but simulated peak flows of ParFlowCLM agreed with those of GR4H for five of the seven catchments. This study highlights the need for the correction of vertical profiles of reflectivity and other polarimetric variables near the surface to improve radar-based QPEs for extreme flooding events. It also underlines the large uncertainty in peak flow estimates due to model parameter estimation.</p

Important role of the mid-tropospheric atmospheric circulation in the recent surface melt increase over the Greenland ice sheet [brief communication]

Since 2007, there has been a series of surface melt records over the Greenland ice sheet (GrIS), continuing the trend towards increased melt observed since the end of the 1990's. The last two decades are characterized by an increase of negative phases of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) favouring warmer and drier summers than normal over GrIS. In this context, we use a circulation type classification based on daily 500 hPa geopotential height to evaluate the role of atmospheric dynamics in this surface melt acceleration for the last two decades. Due to the lack of direct observations, the interannual melt variability is gauged here by the summer (June-July-August) mean temperature from reanalyses at 700 hPa over Greenland; analogous atmospheric circulations in the past show that �70 of the 1993-2012 warming at 700 hPa over Greenland has been driven by changes in the atmospheric flow frequencies. Indeed, the occurrence of anticyclones centred over the GrIS at the surface and at 500 hPa has doubled since the end of 1990's, which induces more frequent southerly warm air advection along the western Greenland coast and over the neighbouring Canadian Arctic Archipelago (CAA). These changes in the NAO modes explain also why no significant warming has been observed these last summers over Svalbard, where northerly atmospheric flows are twice as frequent as before. Therefore, the recent warmer summers over GrIS and CAA cannot be considered as a long-term climate warming but are more a consequence of NAO variability affecting atmospheric heat transport. Although no global model from the CMIP5 database projects subsequent significant changes in NAO through this century, we cannot exclude the possibility that the observed NAO changes are due to global warming. © 2013 Author(s)

A Comparison of the Wholesale Model and the Agency Model in Differentiated Markets

We compare the wholesale model and the agency model that characterise a vertical relation in a bilateral duopoly framework. Results suggest that the agency model may be regarded as an example of retailer power resale price maintenance and provide an economic view of why restraints of this kind should be evaluated under the rule of reason. While competition is more likely to be undercut under the agency model, relative to the wholesale model, the agency model benefits consumers by offering relatively lower retail prices and greater demand

Donation Crowdfunding : Principles and Donor Behaviour

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Reward-Based Crowdfunding Research and Practice

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Crowdfunding in Africa: Opportunities and Challenges

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