Measuring time-varying economic fears with consumption-based stochastic discount factors

This paper analyzes empirically the volatility of consumption-based stochastic discount factors as a measure of implicit economic fears by studying its relationship with future economic and stock market cycles. Time-varying economic fears seem to be well captured by the volatility of stochastic discount factors. In particular, the volatility of recursive utility-based stochastic discount factor with contemporaneous growth explains between 9 and 34 percent of future changes in industrial production at short and long horizons respectively. They also explain ex-ante uncertainty and risk aversion. However, future stock market cycles are better explained by a similar stochastic discount factor with long-run consumption growth. This specification of the stochastic discount factor presents higher volatility and lower pricing errors than the specification with contemporaneous consumption growth.Stochastic discount factor, economic fears, distance between probability measures, volatility of stochastic discount factor, consumption

Variance Swaps and Intertemporal Asset Pricing

This paper proposes an ICAPM in which the risk premium embedded in variance swaps is the factor mimicking portfolio for hedging exposure to changes in future investment conditions. Recent empirical evidence shows that the fears by investors to deviations from Normality in the distribution of returns are able to explain time-varying financial and macroeconomic risks in addition to being a determinant of the variance risk premium. Moreover, variance swaps hedges unfavorable changes in the stochastic investment opportunity set, and is not a redundant asset because significantly expands the efficient mean-variance frontier. Thence, we should expect the variance swap risk incremental pricing information associated with the variance risk premium, particularly at shorter horizons.variance risk premium, intertemporal asset pricing

Why do variance swaps exist?

This paper studies the determinants of the variance risk premium and concludes on the hedging possibilities offered by variance swaps. We start by showing that the variance risk premium responds to changes in higher order moments of the distribution of market returns. But the uncertainty that determines the variance risk premium –the fear by investors to deviations from Normality in returns- is also strongly related to a variety of risks: risk of default, employment growth risk, consumption growth risk, stock market risk and market illiquidity risk. Therefore, the variance risk premium could be interpreted as reflecting the market willingness to pay for hedging against financial and macroeconomic sources of risk. We provide additional evidence in support of that view.Variance risk premium, Non-normality, Economic risks, Hedging

Asset pricing and systematic liquidity risk: An empirical investigation of the Spanish stock market.

Systematic liquidity shocks should affect the optimal behavior of agents in financial markets. Indeed, fluctuations in various measures of liquidity are significantly correlated across common stocks. Accordingly, this paper empirically analyzes whether Spanish average returns vary cross sectionally with betas estimated relative to three competing liquidity risk factors. The first one, proposed by Pastor and Stambaugh (2003), is associated with the temporary price fluctuation reversals induced by the order flow. Our market-wide liquidity factor is defined as the difference between returns highly sensitive to changes in the relative bid–ask spread and returns with low sensitivities to those changes. Finally, the aggregate ratio of absolute stock returns to euro volume, as suggested by Amihud [J. Financ. Mark. 5 (2002) 31], is also employed. Our empirical results show that systematic liquidity risk is significantly priced in the Spanish stock market exclusively when betas are measured relative to the illiquidity risk factor based on the price response to one euro of trading volume on either unconditional or conditional versions of liquidity-based asset pricing models.Systematic liquidity risk; Expected returns; Bid–ask spread; Order flow; Trading volume;

ASSET PRICING AND SYSTEMATIC LIQUIDITY RISK: AN EMPIRICAL INVESTIGATION OF THE SPANISH STOCK MARKET

It seems reasonable to expect systematic liquidity shocks to affect the optimal behavior of agents in financial markets. Indeed, fluctuations in various measures of liquidity are significantly correlated across common stocks(Chordia, Roll and Subrahmanyam (2000)). Thus, this paper empirically analyzes whether Spanish expected returns during the nineties are associated cross-sectionally to betas estimated relative to two competing liquidity risk factors. On one hand, we propose a new market-wide liquidity factor which is defined as the difference between returns of stocks highly sensitive to changes in the relative bid-ask spread less returns from stocks with low sensitivities to those changes. We argue that stocks with positive covariability between returns and this factor are assets whose returns tend to go down when aggregate liquidity is low, and hence do not hedge a potential liquidity crisis. Consequently, investors will require a premium to hold these assets. Similarly, note that in the case of assets that covary negatively with the liquidity factor, investors may be willing to pay a premium rather than to require an additional compensation. On the other hand, Pastor and Stambaugh (2002) suggest that a reasonable liquidity risk factor should be associated with the strength of volume-related return reversals since order flow induces greater return reversals when liquidity is lower. Our empirical results show that neither of these proxies for systematic liquidity risk carries a premium in the Spanish stock market.

Asset pricing and systematic liquidity risk: an empirical investigation of the Spanish stock market

Systematic liquidity shocks should affect the optimal behavior of agents in financial markets. Indeed, fluctuations in various measures of liquidity are significantly correlated across common stocks. Accordingly, this paper empirically analyzes whether Spanish average returns vary cross-sectionally with betas estimated relative to two competing liquidity risk factors. The first one, proposed by Pastor and Stambaugh (2002), is associated with the strength of volume-related return reversals. Our marketwide liquidity factor is defined as the difference between returns highly sensitive to changes in the relative bid-ask spread and returns with low sensitivities to those changes. Our empirical results show that neither of these proxies for systematic liquidity risk seems to be priced in the Spanish stock market. Further international evidence is deserved.expected returns, systematic liquidity risk, order flow, bid ask spread

INNDAGA: an environmental data acquisition innovation platform

INNDAGA is a multipurpose platform for conducting oceanographic surveys in coastal areas developed on an 8.5 m long inflatable boat. This concept allows the vessel to operate safely and with great manoeuvring flexibility in areas where larger research vessels cannot access (rocky areas, port ...) at low operational cost. Is fully integrated in an information management system to providing efficiency and effectiveness of strategic decision making.Peer Reviewe

La resolució de problemes matemàtics a l’educació primària. Una aproximació a 3r curs

Treball Final de Grau en Mestre o Mestra d'Educació Primària. Codi: MP1040. Curs acadèmic 2013-201