Estimating the Duration of Pertussis Immunity Using Epidemiological Signatures

Case notifications of pertussis have shown an increase in a number of countries with high rates of routine pediatric immunization. This has led to significant public health concerns over a possible pertussis re-emergence. A leading proposed explanation for the observed increase in incidence is the loss of immunity to pertussis, which is known to occur after both natural infection and vaccination. Little is known, however, about the typical duration of immunity and its epidemiological implications. Here, we analyze a simple mathematical model, exploring specifically the inter-epidemic period and fade-out frequency. These predictions are then contrasted with detailed incidence data for England and Wales. We find model output to be most sensitive to assumptions concerning naturally acquired immunity, which allows us to estimate the average duration of immunity. Our results support a period of natural immunity that is, on average, long-lasting (at least 30 years) but inherently variable

Subsidiary roles as determinants of subsidiary technology sourcing: empirical evidence from China

Emerging economies have become new destinations for knowledge sourcing, forcing Multinational Enterprises (MNEs) to reconfigure their global innovation strategies and structure. While foreign subsidiaries located in emerging economies were conventionally viewed as having market or efficiency seeking roles, they have started to evolve towards knowledge-seeking roles. We argue that the conventional wisdom shall be reassessed considering this recent shift. We empirically investigate 129 manufacturing MNE subsidiaries of Fortune 500 companies in China, in terms of their roles and sources of technology. Our results indicate that market and knowledge seeking subsidiaries located in China tend to have a positive impact on the generation of new knowledge, either through locally established MNE R&D laboratories or through collaborations with local firms and scientific institutions

Quantifying the impact of deprivation on preterm births:a retrospective cohort study

Background: Social deprivation is associated with higher rates of preterm birth and subsequent infant mortality. Our objective was to identify risk factors for preterm birth in the UK's largest maternity unit, with a particular focus on social deprivation, and related factors. Methodology/Principal Findings: Retrospective cohort study of 39,873 women in Liverpool, UK, from 2002-2008. Singleton pregnancies were stratified into uncomplicated low risk pregnancies and a high risk group complicated by medical problems. Multiple logistic regression, and generalized additive models were used to explore the effect of covariates including area deprivation, smoking status, BMI, parity and ethnicity on the risk of preterm birth (34(+0) weeks). In the low risk group, preterm birth rates increased with deprivation, reaching 1.6% (CI95 1.4 to 1.8) in the most deprived quintile; the unadjusted odds ratio comparing an individual in the most deprived quintile, to one in the least deprived quintile was 1.5 (CI95 1.2 to 1.9). Being underweight and smoking were both independently associated with preterm birth in the low risk group, and adjusting for these factors explained the association between deprivation and preterm birth. Preterm birth was five times more likely in the high risk group (RR 4.8 CI95 4.3 to 5.4), and there was no significant relationship with deprivation. Conclusions: Deprivation has significant impact on preterm birth rates in low risk women. The relationship between low socio-economic status and preterm births appears to be related to low maternal weight and smoking in more deprived groups

Birth order matters: the effect of family size and birth order on educational attainment

Family size, Birth order, Education, I2, J1,