Borrowing in Foreign Currency: Austrian Households as Carry Traders

Household borrowing in a foreign currency is a widespread phenomenon in Austria. Twelve percent of Austrian households report their housing loan to be denominated in either Swiss franc or Japanese yen for example. Yet, despite its importance, peculiar character, and immediate policy concerns, we know too little about the attitudes and characteristics of the households involved in this type of carry trade. We analyze a uniquely detailed financial wealth survey of 2,556 Austrian households to sketch a comprehensive profile of the attitudes and characteristics of the households involved. We employ both univariate tests and multivariate multinomial logit models. The survey data suggests that risk-loving, wealthy, and married households are more likely to take a housing loan in a foreign currency. High-income households are more likely to take a housing loan in general. These findings may partially assuage policy concerns about household default risk on foreign-currency housing loans.oreign currency borrowing, mortgages, banking sector, Austria, Swissfrancs

Evaluation of Harpin for the Control of Insect-Vectored Bacterial Wilt of Pumpkin and Testing of PMR-Pumpkin and Squash Varieties for Their Reaction to Beetle Feeding Activity and Bacterial Wilt Inoculations

NYS IPM Type: Project ReportThe goals of this project were 1) to determine if harpin can suppress the transmission of bacterial wilt (BW) vectored by cucumber beetles and 2) to compare cucurbit crops and varieties for their attractiveness to cucumber beetles and susceptibility to bacterial wilt

The origin of biased sequence depth in sequence-independent nucleic acid amplification and optimization for efficient massive parallel sequencing

Sequence Independent Single Primer Amplification is one of the most widely used random amplification approaches in virology for sequencing template preparation. This technique relies on oligonucleotides consisting of a 39 random part used to prime complementary DNA synthesis and a 59 defined tag sequence for subsequent amplification. Recently, this amplification method was combined with next generation sequencing to obtain viral sequences. However, these studies showed a biased distribution of the resulting sequence reads over the analyzed genomes. The aim of this study was to elucidate the mechanisms that lead to biased sequence depth when using random amplification. Avian paramyxovirus type 8 was used as a model RNA virus to investigate these mechanisms. We showed, based on in silico analysis of the sequence depth in relation to GC-content, predicted RNA secondary structure and sequence complementarity to the 39 part of the tag sequence, that the tag sequence has the main contribution to the observed bias in sequence depth. We confirmed this finding experimentally using both fragmented and non-fragmented viral RNAs as well as primers differing in random oligomer length (6 or 12 nucleotides) and in the sequence of the amplification tag. The observed oligonucleotide annealing bias can be reduced by extending the random oligomer sequence and by in silico combining sequence data from SISPA experiments using different 59 defined tag sequences. These findings contribute to the optimization of random nucleic acid amplification protocols that are currently required for downstream applications such as viral metagenomics and microarray analysis

A randomized trial comparing digital video disc with written delivery of falls prevention education for older patients in hospital

Objectives: To compare the effectiveness of a digital video disc (DVD) with that of a written workbook delivering falls prevention education to older hospital patients on self-perceived risk of falls, perception of falls epidemiology, knowledge of prevention strategies, and motivation and confidence to engage in self-protective strategies. To compare the effect of receiving either education approach versus no education on patients\u27 perception of falls epidemiology. Design: Randomized trial (DVD vs workbook) with additional quasi-experimental control group. Settings: Geriatric, medical, and orthopedic wards in Perth and Brisbane, Australia. Participants: One hundred (n=51 DVD, n=49 workbook) hospital inpatients aged 60 and older receiving an intervention (mean age 75.3±10.1) and 122 in the control group (mean age 79.3±8.3). Intervention: Participants randomly assigned to receive identical educational material on falls prevention delivered on a DVD or in a workbook. Control group received usual care. Measurements: Custom-designed survey addressing elements of the Health Belief Model of health behavior change. Results: Participants randomized to DVD delivery had a higher self-perceived risk of falling (P=.04) and higher levels of confidence (P=.03) and motivation (P=.04) to engage in self-protective strategies than participants who received the workbook. A higher proportion of participants who received either form of the education provided “desired” responses than of control group participants across all knowledge items (P\u3c.001). Conclusion: Delivery of falls prevention education on a DVD compared to a written workbook is more likely to achieve important changes in parameters likely to affect successful uptake of falls prevention messages in the hospital setting

Factors associated with older patients\u27 engagement in exercise after hospital discharge

Objectives: To identify factors that are associated with older patients\u27 engagement in exercise in the 6 months after hospital discharge. Design: A prospective observational study using qualitative and quantitative evaluation. Setting: Follow-up of hospital patients in their home setting after discharge from a metropolitan general hospital. Participants: Participants (N=343) were older patients (mean age ± SD, 79.4±8.5y) discharged from medical, surgical, and rehabilitation wards and followed up for 6 months after discharge. Interventions: Not applicable. Main Outcome Measures: Self-perceived awareness and risk of falls measured at discharge with a survey that addressed elements of the Health Belief Model. Engagement and self-reported barriers to engagement in exercise measured at 6 months after discharge using a telephone survey. Results: Six months after discharge, 305 participants remained in the study, of whom 109 (35.7%) were engaging in a structured exercise program. Multivariable logistic regression analysis demonstrated participants were more likely to be engaging in exercise if they perceived they were at risk of serious injury from a fall (odds ratio [OR] =.61; 95% confidence interval [CI], .48–.78; P Conclusions: Older patients have low levels of engagement in exercise after hospital discharge. Researchers should design exercise programs that address identified barriers and facilitators, and provide education to enhance motivation and self-efficacy to exercise in this population

On Predicting the Solar Cycle using Mean-Field Models

We discuss the difficulties of predicting the solar cycle using mean-field models. Here we argue that these difficulties arise owing to the significant modulation of the solar activity cycle, and that this modulation arises owing to either stochastic or deterministic processes. We analyse the implications for predictability in both of these situations by considering two separate solar dynamo models. The first model represents a stochastically-perturbed flux transport dynamo. Here even very weak stochastic perturbations can give rise to significant modulation in the activity cycle. This modulation leads to a loss of predictability. In the second model, we neglect stochastic effects and assume that generation of magnetic field in the Sun can be described by a fully deterministic nonlinear mean-field model -- this is a best case scenario for prediction. We designate the output from this deterministic model (with parameters chosen to produce chaotically modulated cycles) as a target timeseries that subsequent deterministic mean-field models are required to predict. Long-term prediction is impossible even if a model that is correct in all details is utilised in the prediction. Furthermore, we show that even short-term prediction is impossible if there is a small discrepancy in the input parameters from the fiducial model. This is the case even if the predicting model has been tuned to reproduce the output of previous cycles. Given the inherent uncertainties in determining the transport coefficients and nonlinear responses for mean-field models, we argue that this makes predicting the solar cycle using the output from such models impossible.Comment: 22 Pages, 5 Figures, Preprint accepted for publication in Ap

Incidence, risk factors and the healthcare cost of falls postdischarge after elective total hip and total knee replacement surgery: protocol for a prospective observational cohort study

Abstract: Introduction: The number of major joint replacement procedures continues to increase in Australia. The primary aim of this study is to determine the incidence of falls in the first 12 months after discharge from hospital in a cohort of older patients who undergo elective total hip or total knee replacement. Methods and analyses: A prospective longitudinal observational cohort study starting in July 2015, enrolling patients aged ≥60 years who are admitted for elective major joint replacement (n=267 total hip replacement, n=267 total knee replacement) and are to be discharged to the community. Participants are followed up for 12 months after hospital discharge. The primary outcome measure is the rate of falls per thousand patient-days. Falls data will be collected by 2 methods: issuing a falls diary to each participant and telephoning participants monthly after discharge. Secondary outcomes include the rate of injurious falls and health-related quality of life. Patient-rated outcomes will be measured using the Oxford Hip or Oxford Knee score. Generalised linear mixed modelling will be used to examine the falls outcomes in the 12 months after discharge and to examine patient and clinical characteristics predictive of falls. An economic evaluation will be conducted to describe the nature of healthcare costs in the first 12 months after elective joint replacement and estimate costs directly attributable to fall events. Ethics and dissemination: The results will be disseminated through local site networks and will inform future services to support older people undergoing hip or knee joint replacement and also through peer-reviewed publications and medical conferences. This study has been approved by The University of Notre Dame Australia and local hospital human research ethics committees. Trial registratio

My independent streak may get in the way\u27: how older adults respond to falls prevention education in hospital

Objectives: The aim of the study was to determine how providing individualised falls prevention education facilitated behaviour change from the perspective of older hospital patients on rehabilitation wards and what barriers they identified to engaging in preventive strategies. Design: A prospective qualitative survey. Methods: Older patients (n=757) who were eligible (mini-mental state examination score\u3e23/30) received falls prevention education while admitted to eight rehabilitation hospital wards in Western Australia. Subsequently, 610 participants were surveyed using a semistructured questionnaire to gain their response to the in-hospital education and their identified barriers to engaging in falls prevention strategies. Deductive content analysis was used to map responses against conceptual frameworks of health behaviour change and risk taking. Results: Participants who responded (n=473) stated that the education raised their awareness, knowledge and confidence to actively engage in falls prevention strategies, such as asking for assistance prior to mobilising. Participants’ thoughts and feelings about their recovery were the main barriers they identified to engaging in safe strategies, including feeling overconfident or desiring to be independent and thinking that staff would be delayed in providing assistance. The most common task identified as potentially leading to risk-taking behaviour was needing to use the toilet. Conclusions: Individualised education assists older hospital rehabilitation patients with good levels of cognition to engage in suitable falls prevention strategies while on the ward. Staff should engage with patients to understand their perceptions about their recovery and support patients to take an active role in planning their rehabilitation

Educators\u27 perspectives about how older hospital patients can engage in a falls prevention education programme: a qualitative process evaluation

Objectives: Falls are the most frequent adverse event reported in hospitals. Patient and staff education delivered by trained educators significantly reduced falls and injurious falls in an older rehabilitation population. The purpose of the study was to explore the educators’ perspectives of delivering the education and to conceptualise how the programme worked to prevent falls among older patients who received the education. Design: A qualitative exploratory study. Methods: Data were gathered from three sources: conducting a focus group and an interview (n=10 educators), written educator notes and reflective researcher field notes based on interactions with the educators during the primary study. The educators delivered the programme on eight rehabilitation wards for periods of between 10 and 40 weeks. They provided older patients with individualised education to engage in falls prevention and provided staff with education to support patient actions. Data were thematically analysed and presented using a conceptual framework. Results: Falls prevention education led to mutual understanding between staff and patients which assisted patients to engage in falls prevention behaviours. Mutual understanding was derived from the following observations: the educators perceived that they could facilitate an effective three-way interaction between staff actions, patient actions and the ward environment which led to behaviour change on the wards. This included engaging with staff and patients, and assisting them to reconcile differing perspectives about falls prevention behaviours. Conclusions: Individualised falls prevention education effectively provides patients who receive it with the capability and motivation to develop and undertake behavioural strategies that reduce their falls, if supported by staff and the ward environment

Incidence, risk factors and the healthcare cost of falls postdischarge after elective total hip and total knee replacement surgery: Protocol for a prospective observational cohort study

Introduction: The number of major joint replacement procedures continues to increase in Australia. The primary aim of this study is to determine the incidence of falls in the first 12 months after discharge from hospital in a cohort of older patients who undergo elective total hip or total knee replacement. Method and analyses: A prospective longitudinal observational cohort study starting in July 2015, enrolling patients aged ≥ 60 years who are admitted for elective major joint replacement (n = 267 total hip replacement, n = 267 total knee replacement) and are to be discharged to the community. Participants are followed up for 12 months after hospital discharge. The primary outcome measure is the rate of falls per thousand patient-days. Falls data will be collected by 2 methods: issuing a falls diary to each participant and telephoning participants monthly after discharge. Secondary outcomes include the rate of injurious falls and health-related quality of life. Patient-rated outcomes will be measured using the Oxford Hip or Oxford Knee score. Generalised linear mixed modelling will be used to examine the falls outcomes in the 12 months after discharge and to examine patient and clinical characteristics predictive of falls. An economic evaluation will be conducted to describe the nature of healthcare costs in the first 12 months after elective joint replacement and estimate costs directly attributable to fall events. Ethics and dissemination: The results will be disseminated through local site networks and will inform future services to support older people undergoing hip or knee joint replacement and also through peer-reviewed publications and medical conferences. This study has been approved by The University of Notre Dame Australia and local hospital human research ethics committees. Trial registration number: ACTRN12615000653561; Pre-results