Progress in operational modeling in support of oil spill response

Following the 2010 Deepwater Horizon accident of a massive blow-out in the Gulf of Mexico, scientists from government, industry, and academia collaborated to advance oil spill modeling and share best practices in model algorithms, parameterizations, and application protocols. This synergy was greatly enhanced by research funded under the Gulf of Mexico Research Initiative (GoMRI), a 10-year enterprise that allowed unprecedented collection of observations and data products, novel experiments, and international collaborations that focused on the Gulf of Mexico, but resulted in the generation of scientific findings and tools of broader value. Operational oil spill modeling greatly benefited from research during the GoMRI decade. This paper provides a comprehensive synthesis of the related scientific advances, remaining challenges, and future outlook. Two main modeling components are discussed: Ocean circulation and oil spill models, to provide details on all attributes that contribute to the success and limitations of the integrated oil spill forecasts. These forecasts are discussed in tandem with uncertainty factors and methods to mitigate them. The paper focuses on operational aspects of oil spill modeling and forecasting, including examples of international operational center practices, observational needs, communication protocols, and promising new methodologies

Productive Safety Net Program and Children's Time Use Between Work and Schooling in Ethiopia

Government, non-government, and donor organizations have developed a social assistance program known as Productive Safety Net Program (PSNP) which has two sub-programs namely public work program (PWP) and Direct Support Program (DSP). PSNP is designed to reduce the vulnerability of poor people to drought and it targets household and in most cases without considering ex ante the issue of intra-household resource distribution. This paper assesses, using Young Lives Survey data, the impacts of the Productive Safety Net Program (PSNP) and the Agricultural Extension Program (AEP) on time use between work and schooling as well as highest grade completed by 12-year-old children in rural and urban Ethiopia. Empirically the study used propensity score matching techniques to estimate the impact of PSNP and AEP on child welfare measured by time use in various types of work, schooling, and studying. We found that PWP in rural areas increases child work for pay, reduces children’s time spent on child care and household chores and total hours of time children spent on work all kind of work combined, and increases girls spending on study. The DSP in rural and urban areas reduces time children spent on paid and unpaid work, and increases the highest grade completed by boys in urban areas. On the other hand, AEP in rural areas was effective in reducing child work for pay and total work, increasing time girls spent on schooling and highest grade completed by girls

Death in hospital following ICU discharge : insights from the LUNG SAFE study

Altres ajuts: Italian Ministry of University and Research (MIUR)-Department of Excellence project PREMIA (PREcision MedIcine Approach: bringing biomarker research to clinic); Science Foundation Ireland Future Research Leaders Award; European Society of Intensive Care Medicine (ESICM), Brussels; St Michael's Hospital, Toronto; University of Milan-Bicocca, Monza, Italy.Background: To determine the frequency of, and factors associated with, death in hospital following ICU discharge to the ward. Methods: The Large observational study to UNderstand the Global impact of Severe Acute respiratory FailurE study was an international, multicenter, prospective cohort study of patients with severe respiratory failure, conducted across 459 ICUs from 50 countries globally. This study aimed to understand the frequency and factors associated with death in hospital in patients who survived their ICU stay. We examined outcomes in the subpopulation discharged with no limitations of life sustaining treatments ('treatment limitations'), and the subpopulations with treatment limitations. Results: 2186 (94%) patients with no treatment limitations discharged from ICU survived, while 142 (6%) died in hospital. 118 (61%) of patients with treatment limitations survived while 77 (39%) patients died in hospital. Patients without treatment limitations that died in hospital after ICU discharge were older, more likely to have COPD, immunocompromise or chronic renal failure, less likely to have trauma as a risk factor for ARDS. Patients that died post ICU discharge were less likely to receive neuromuscular blockade, or to receive any adjunctive measure, and had a higher pre- ICU discharge non-pulmonary SOFA score. A similar pattern was seen in patients with treatment limitations that died in hospital following ICU discharge. Conclusions: A significant proportion of patients die in hospital following discharge from ICU, with higher mortality in patients with limitations of life-sustaining treatments in place. Non-survivors had higher systemic illness severity scores at ICU discharge than survivors. Trial Registration: ClinicalTrials.gov NCT02010073