Forecasting the Anti-Rabies Vaccine Demand at Jawaharlal Medical College and Hospital, Ajmer, Rajasthan: A Comparative Analysis based on Time Series Model

Background: In India, high mortality and morbidity rates of human rabies is observed. Hence, a structured surveillance system is yet to be put in place for public health discussion. At the tertiary care hospital and all public health centres, requirement of anti-rabies vaccine is needed in advance to predict the upcoming months coverage so that wastage of vaccine is minimum. Objective: To find a suitable model for forecasting the appropriate stock of anti-rabies vaccines to avoid shortage and over-supply at anti rabies clinic. Methods and Material: This was a record based cross sectional study, conducted at anti rabies clinic of Jawaharlal Nehru Medical College and Hospital, Ajmer. Data of used anti rabies vaccine was taken from immunization inventory during the period from 2017 to 2020. Time series analysis based on Holt-Winter and Box-Jenkins methods were carried out to predict the need of vaccine. Results: Study series was not stationary and stationarity was observed by taken difference in the observation between two consequent months. Residuals of the series were normally distributed and independent to each other. ARIMA(0, 1, 1) was the best model in comparison to Holt-Winter model for prediction because of low value of model selection criterion.  The forecasted value for anti-rabies vaccine was done for the year 2021. Conclusions: The following study concluded that time series can be used as a tool to forecast anti-rabies vaccine coverage and will help the policy makers to formulate appropriate plans and strategies and improve the management of vaccination resources and inventory

A Prospective Comparative Study of Central Corneal Endothelial Cell Count After Small Incision Cataract Surgery in Diabetic and Nondiabetic in Age Matched Population

Abstract: Objectives

Mastoid Dressing in Ear Surgery: Is it Still Relevant?

Introduction   Mastoid dressings are conventionally used in patients who undergo Tympanoplasty using post auricular approach. The rationale behind using a mastoid dressing is that the said dressing prevents haematoma formation and acts as a protective covering during the post-operative period. This study aims to understand the significance of mastoid dressing in patients undergoing Cortical Mastoidectomy and Tympanoplasty and its role in preventing post-operative wound complications and patient comfort. Materials and Methods   A total of 77 patients were enrolled in the study over a one year period and were randomised into dressing and no dressing groups with the aim of deciphering any advantage of the mastoid dressing over a smaller dressing. Results   Our data revealed no added advantage of conventional mastoid dressing over a small gauze piece dressing in terms of haematoma/seroma formation, contusion and wound dehiscence. However, there was significantly reduced patient discomfort and sleeping difficulties post-operatively in the no dressing group. Conclusion We conclude that smaller dressing is more favourable than the bulkier conventional mastoid dressings