Northern Vanuatu as a Pacific Crossroads: The Archaeology of Discovery, Interaction, and the Emergence of the "Ethnographic Present"

Northern Vanuatu is a significant crossroads region of the Southwest Pacific. This paper outlines current archaeological research being undertaken in the area, focusing on defining initial human settlement there some 3000 years ago and subsequent cultural transformations which led to the establishment of the ethnographic present. The study to date has contributed to a more detailed picture of inter- and intra-archipelago interaction, settlement pattern, subsistence, and cultural differentiation. The research contributes to regional debates on human colonization, patterns of social interaction, and the drivers of social change in island contexts

The safety case and the lessons learned for the reliability and maintainability case

This paper examine the safety case and the lessons learned for the reliability and maintainability case

Historical Exploration - Learning Lessons from the Past to Inform the Future

This report examines a number of exploration campaigns that have taken place during the last 700 years, and considers them from a risk perspective. The explorations are those led by Christopher Columbus, Sir Walter Raleigh, John Franklin, Sir Ernest Shackleton, the Company of Scotland to Darien and the Apollo project undertaken by NASA. To provide a wider context for investigating the selected exploration campaigns, we seek ways of finding analogies at mission, programmatic and strategic levels and thereby to develop common themes. Ultimately, the purpose of the study is to understand how risk has shaped past explorations, in order to learn lessons for the future. From this, we begin to identify and develop tools for assessing strategic risk in future explorations. Figure 0.1 (see Page 6) summarizes the key inputs used to shape the study, the process and the results, and provides a graphical overview of the methodology used in the project. The first step was to identify the potential cases that could be assessed and to create criteria for selection. These criteria were collaboratively developed through discussion with a Business Historian. From this, six cases were identified as meeting our key criteria. Preliminary analysis of two of the cases allowed us to develop an evaluation framework that was used across all six cases to ensure consistency. This framework was revised and developed further as all six cases were analyzed. A narrative and summary statistics were created for each exploration case studied, in addition to a method for visualizing the important dimensions that capture major events. These Risk Experience Diagrams illustrate how the realizations of events, linked to different types of risks, have influenced the historical development of each exploration campaign. From these diagrams, we can begin to compare risks across each of the cases using a common framework. In addition, exploration risks were classified in terms of mission, program and strategic risks. From this, a Venn diagram and Belief Network were developed to identify how different exploration risks interacted. These diagrams allow us to quickly view the key risk drivers and their interactions in each of the historical cases. By looking at the context in which individual missions take place we have been able to observe the dynamics within an exploration campaign, and gain an understanding of how these interact with influences from stakeholders and competitors. A qualitative model has been created to capture how these factors interact, and are further challenged by unwanted events such as mission failures and competitor successes. This Dynamic Systemic Risk Model is generic and applies broadly to all the exploration ventures studied. This model is an amalgamation of a System Dynamics model, hence incorporating the natural feedback loops within each exploration mission, and a risk model, in order to ensure that the unforeseen events that may occur can be incorporated into the modeling. Finally, an overview is given of the motivational drivers and summaries are presented of the overall costs borne in each exploration venture. An important observation is that all the cases - with the exception of Apollo - were failures in terms of meeting their original objectives. However, despite this, several were strategic successes and indeed changed goals as needed in an entrepreneurial way. The Risk Experience Diagrams developed for each case were used to quantitatively assess which risks were realized most often during our case studies and to draw comparisons at mission, program and strategic levels. In addition, using the Risk Experience Diagrams and the narrative of each case, specific lessons for future exploration were identified. There are three key conclusions to this study: Analyses of historical cases have shown that there exists a set of generic risk classes. This set of risk classes cover mission, program and strategic levels, and includes all the risks encountered in the cases studied. At mission level these are Leadership Decisions, Internal Events and External Events; at program level these are Lack of Learning, Resourcing and Mission Failure; at Strategic Level they are Programmatic Failure, Stakeholder Perception and Goal Change. In addition there are two further risks that impact at all levels: Self-Interest of Actors, and False Model. There is no reason to believe that these risk classes will not be applicable to future exploration and colonization campaigns. We have deliberately selected a range of different exploration and colonization campaigns, taking place between the 15th Century and the 20th Century. The generic risk framework is able to describe the significant types of risk for these missions. Furthermore, many of these risks relate to how human beings interact and learn lessons to guide their future behavior. Although we are better schooled than our forebears and are technically further advanced, there is no reason to think we are fundamentally better at identifying, prioritizing and controlling these classes of risk. Modern risk modeling techniques are capable of addressing mission and program risk but are not as well suited to strategic risk. We have observed that strategic risks are prevalent throughout historic exploration and colonization campaigns. However, systematic approaches do not exist at the moment to analyze such risks. A risk-informed approach to understanding what happened in the past helps us guard against the danger of assuming that those events were inevitable, and highlights those chance events that produced the history that the world experienced. In turn, it allows us to learn more clearly from the past about the way our modern risk modeling techniques might help us to manage the future - and also bring to light those areas where they may not. This study has been retrospective. Based on this analysis, the potential for developing the work in a prospective way by applying the risk models to future campaigns is discussed. Follow on work from this study will focus on creating a portfolio of tools for assessing strategic and programmatic risk

Applying Bayes linear methods to support reliability procurement decisions

Bayesian methods are common in reliability and risk assessment, however, such methods often demand a large amount of specification and can be computationally intensive. Because of this, many practitioners are unable to take advantage of many of the benefits found in a Bayesian-based approach. The Bayes linear methodology is similar in spirit to a Bayesian approach but offers an alternative method of making inferences. Bayes linear methods are based on the use of expected values rather than probabilities, and updating is carried out by linear adjustment rather than by Bayes Theorem. The foundations of the method are very strong, based as they are in work of De Finetti and developed further by Goldstein. A Bayes linear model requires less specification than a corresponding probability model and for a given amount of model building effort, one can model a more complex situation quicker. The Bayes linear methodology has the potential to allow us to build ''broad-brush' models that enable us, for example, to explore different test setups or analysis methods and assess the benefits that they can give. The output a Bayes linear model is viewed as an approximation to 'traditional' probabilistic models. The methodology has been applied to support reliability decision making within a current United Kingdom Ministry of Defence (MOD) procurement project. The reliability decision maker had to assess different contractor bids and assess the reliability merit of each bid. Currently the MOD assess reliability programmes subjectively using expert knowledge - for a number of reasons, a quantitative method of assessment in some projects is desirable. The Bayes linear methodology was used to support the decision maker in quantifying his assessment of the reliability of each contractor's bid and determining the effectiveness of each contractor's reliability programme. From this, the decision maker was able to communicate to the project leader and contractors, why a specific contractor was chosen. The methodology has been used in other MOD projects and is considered by those within the MOD as a useful tool to support decision making. The paper will contain the following. The paper will introduce the Bayes linear methodology and briefly discuss some of the philosophical implications of adopting a Bayes linear methodology within the context of a reliability programme analysis. The paper will briefly introduce the reliability domain and the reasons why it is believed that the Bayes linear methodology can offer support to decision makers. An in-depth analysis of the problem will then be given documenting the steps taken in the project and how future decision makers can apply the methodology. A brief summary will then be given as to possible future work for those interested in the Bayes linear methodology

Birds on the rim: a unique Lapita carinated vessel in its wider context

This paper describes a decorated carinated vessel excavated at the Teouma Lapita site, on the south coast of Efate, central Vanuatu. The vessel contained human bones and, following reconstruction, was found to have had four modelled birds on its rim. Th

Radiocarbon dating of burials from the Teouma Lapita cemetery, Efate, Vanuatu

The discovery of a cemetery at Teouma on the island of Efate in Vanuatu dated to c. 3000 years ago increased the number of early Pacific human remains available for study by nearly an order of magnitude and provided for the first time the ability to study the population dynamics of these early colonizers. The cemetery also provided an opportunity to investigate the chronological development of such a unique site. Although identified short-lived plant materials are favoured for dating archaeological sites, the reality of research in the Pacific region is that such materials are often rare, difficult to identify to species because of an absence of suitable reference collections, and dates on other materials often have greater potential to refine and focus ¹⁴C chronologies that deal with specific research questions. At Teouma, dates on the burial remains themselves are the best means to answer questions about the age and duration of the burial ground. Human bone, however, is one of the most complicated materials to date reliably because of dietary ¹⁴C offsets and bone preservation. One commonly used methodology for calibrating dates on human bone from Pacific human skeletal remains, based on linear interpolation between δ¹³C endpoints and δ¹⁵N values, is complicated by the wide range of foods available (marine, reef, C₄ and C₃), and remains largely untested in Pacific contexts. Radiocarbon dating of the Teouma site, including 36 Lapita-age burials, 5 dates on Conus sp. ring artefacts, and dates from the associated midden deposit, has enabled further evaluation of ¹⁴C dietary offsets and the reliability of calibrated radiocarbon ages on human bone. Bayesian evaluation of the ¹⁴C dates suggests the burial ground was in regular use by c. 2940-2880 cal BP, with the last interments occurring c. 2770-2710 cal BP. A number of burials could indicate possible earlier use, perhaps as early as 3110-2930 cal BP as indicated by the calibrated age range of Burial 57. This cannot be independently substantiated using other radiocarbon dates or context at the present time. Overall, these results suggest the burial ground was in use over a possible 150 to 240 years during the formative phase of Lapita expansion into Remote Oceania

Faces of the Teouma Lapita People: Art, Accuracy and Facial Approximation

In 2008 we completed facial approximations of four individuals from the early Lapita Culture, a seafaring people who were the first to settle the islands of the Western Pacific circa 3000 years ago. Typically an approximation is performed as a 3D sculpture or using computer graphics. We chose to sketch what we have been able to determine from the remains because the artistic conventions of drawing work with visual perception in ways that are more complementary to the knowledge, theories and methods that make up the facial approximation of human remains

Avifauna from the Teouma Lapita Site, Efate Island, Vanuatu, Including a New Genus and Species of Megapode

Copyright 2015 University of Hawaii Press. Published version of the article is reproduced here with permission from the publisher.The avifauna of the Teouma archaeological site on Efate in Vanuatu is described. It derives from the Lapita levels (3,000 – 2,800 ybp) and immedi-ately overlying middens extending to ∼2,500 ybp. A total of 30 bird species is represented in the 1,714 identiï¬ ed specimens. Twelve species are new records for the island, which, added to previous records, indicates that minimally 39 land birds exclusive of passerines were in the original avifauna. Three-fourths of the 12 newly recorded species appear to have become extinct by the end of Lapita times, 2,800 ybp. The avifauna is dominated by eight species of columbids (47.5% Minimum Number Individuals [MNI ]) including a large extinct tooth-billed pigeon, Didunculus placopedetes from Tonga, and a giant Ducula sp. cf. D. goliath from New Caledonia. Seabirds are rare despite the coastal location of the site. Fowl are important contributors to the Teouma avifauna, with the human-introduced Red Junglefowl Gallus gallus accounting for 15% MNI and present in all sampled layers. There are two species of megapodes (∼10% of MNI ), with the extant Vanuatu Megapode Megapodius layardi most abundant and represented at all levels in the deposits. A substantially larger extinct megapode, Mwalau walter-linii, n. gen., n. sp., is present only in the Lapita midden area, where it is rela-tively rare. This extinct species was larger than all extant megapodes but smaller than the extinct Progura gallinacea from Australia, with proportions most similar to those of Alectura, and was a volant bird. The remaining signiï¬ cant faunal component is rails, with four species present, of which Porphyrio melanotus was the most abundant. Rare but notable records include an undescribed large rail; a parrot, Eclectus sp. cf. E. infectus; a hornbill, Rhyticeros sp. cf. R. plicatus; and a coucal, Centropus sp. indet., all conservatively considered likely to be conspeciï¬ c with known taxa elsewhere in Melanesia

A role for deferasirox as an anti-neoplastic and chemosensitising agent in gastrointestinal cancer

Cancer of the gastrointestinal tract remains a significant cause of morbidity and mortality. Although surgical resection of the primary tumour remains the cornerstone of curative treatment, chemotherapy forms an increasingly important component of the management armamentarium. Response to therapy, however, is by no means uniform and thus the development of new agents is highly desirable. There is a significant body of evidence implicating iron in the malignant progression of gastrointestinal cancer. Tumours acquire an excess of iron which in turn propagates their malignant phenotype. This project aimed to demonstrate that a strategy to deplete tumour cells of iron using the licensed iron chelator Deferasirox was effective in the treatment of oesophageal and colorectal cancer. Deferasirox significantly impedes cellular viability and proliferation both $in-vitro$ and $in-vivo$ in oesophageal and colorectal cancer models. The drug can overcome established chemotherapy resistance and may also act as a chemosensitiser. The disturbance of normal intracellular iron homeostasis and increased dependence of gastrointestinal tumour cells on iron means chelation may offer targeted therapy. Certain iron regulatory proteins may also serve as biomarkers for treatment efficacy. Deferasirox therefore represents an effective and well tolerated adjunct to existing therapies that should be considered for future clinical trials

The use of Lapita pottery : results from the first analysis of lipid residues

Biomolecular and isotopic characterisation of absorbed organic residues have been performed on eight dentate-stamped and two plain Lapita potsherds from the site of Teouma, in Vanuatu. Lipid profiles associated with decorated pots are homogenous, suggesting that similar food types or mixtures of food types were placed in these vessels. This suggests a high degree of consistency in the use of Lapita decorated pots, irrespective of the morphological and stylistic variation of these vessels. Data obtained from single-compound isotope analysis are also not consistent with marine resources as potential food sources for Lapita vessels. The absence of such commonly consumed, ubiquitous and easily accessible resources in Lapita vessels suggests that these pots were not manufactured to be used for ordinary occasions and day-to-day food consumption. This is the first time tangible data related to the use of these vessels are provided to support this claim in addition to contextual inferences