Non-pharmaceutical interventions and risk of COVID-19 infection: survey of U.K. public from November 2020 – May 2021

Introduction: Non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs), such as handwashing, social distancing and face mask wearing, have been widely promoted to reduce the spread of COVID-19. This study aimed to explore the relationship between self-reported use of NPIs and COVID-19 infection. Methods: We conducted an online questionnaire study recruiting members of the UK public from November 2020 to May 2021. The association between self-reported COVID-19 illness and reported use of NPIs was explored using logistic regression and controlling for participant characteristics, month of questionnaire completion, and vaccine status. Participants: who had been exposed to COVID-19 in their household in the previous 2 weeks were excluded. Results: Twenty-seven thousand seven hundred fifty-eight participants were included and 2,814 (10.1%) reported having a COVID-19 infection. The odds of COVID-19 infection were reduced with use of a face covering in unadjusted (OR 0.17 (95% CI: 0.15 to 0.20) and adjusted (aOR 0.19, 95% CI 0.16 to 0.23) analyses. Social distancing (OR 0.27, 95% CI: 0.22 to 0.31; aOR 0.35, 95% CI 0.28 to 0.43) and handwashing when arriving home (OR 0.57, 95% CI 0.46 to 0.73; aOR 0.63, 95% CI: 0.48 to 0.83) also reduced the odds of COVID-19. Being in crowded places of 10–100 people (OR 1.89, 95% CI: 1.70 to 2.11; aOR 1.62, 95% CI: 1.42 to 1.85) and > 100 people (OR 2.33, 95% CI: 2.11 to 2.58; aOR 1.73, 95% CI: 1.53 to 1.97) were both associated with increased odds of COVID-19 infection. Handwashing before eating, avoiding touching the face, and cleaning things with virus on were all associated with increased odds of COVID-19 infections. Conclusions: This large observational study found evidence for strong protective effects for individuals from use of face coverings, social distancing (including avoiding crowded places) and handwashing on arriving home on developing COVID-19 infection. We also found evidence for an increased risk associated with other behaviours, possibly from recall bias

Internet tool to support self-assessment and self-swabbing of sore throat: development and feasibility study

Background: Sore throat is a common problem and a common reason for the overuse of antibiotics. A web-based tool that helps people assess their sore throat, through the use of clinical prediction rules, taking throat swabs or saliva samples, and taking throat photographs, has the potential to improve self-management and help identify those who are the most and least likely to benefit from antibiotics. Objective: We aimed to develop a web-based tool to help patients and parents or carers self-assess sore throat symptoms and take throat photographs, swabs, and saliva samples for diagnostic testing. We then explored the acceptability and feasibility of using the tool in adults and children with sore throats. Methods: We used the Person-Based Approach to develop a web-based tool and then recruited adults and children with sore throats who participated in this study by attending general practices or through social media advertising. Participants self-assessed the presence of FeverPAIN and Centor score criteria and attempted to photograph their throat and take throat swabs and saliva tests. Study processes were observed via video call, and participants were interviewed about their views on using the web-based tool. Self-assessed throat inflammation and pus were compared to clinician evaluation of patients’ throat photographs. Results: A total of 45 participants (33 adults and 12 children) were recruited. Of these, 35 (78%) and 32 (71%) participants completed all scoring elements for FeverPAIN and Centor scores, respectively, and most (30/45, 67%) of them reported finding self-assessment relatively easy. No valid response was provided for swollen lymph nodes, throat inflammation, and pus on the throat by 11 (24%), 9 (20%), and 13 (29%) participants respectively. A total of 18 (40%) participants provided a throat photograph of adequate quality for clinical assessment. Patient assessment of inflammation had a sensitivity of 100% (3/3) and specificity of 47% (7/15) compared with the clinician-assessed photographs. For pus on the throat, the sensitivity was 100% (3/3) and the specificity was 71% (10/14). A total of 89% (40/45), 93% (42/45), 89% (40/45), and 80% (30/45) of participants provided analyzable bacterial swabs, viral swabs, saliva sponges, and saliva drool samples, respectively. Participants were generally happy and confident in providing samples, with saliva samples rated as slightly more acceptable than swab samples. Conclusions: Most adult and parent participants were able to use a web-based intervention to assess the clinical features of throat infections and generate scores using clinical prediction rules. However, some had difficulties assessing clinical signs, such as lymph nodes, throat pus, and inflammation, and scores were assessed as sensitive but not specific. Many participants had problems taking photographs of adequate quality, but most were able to take throat swabs and saliva samples

Emollient bath additives for the treatment of childhood eczema (BATHE): multi-centre pragmatic parallel group randomised controlled trial of clinical and cost-effectiveness

Objectives: To determine the clinical and cost-effectiveness of including emollient bath additives in the management of childhood eczema. Trial design: Pragmatic randomised open-label superiority trial with two parallel groups. Setting and recruitment: 96 general practices in Wales, West of England and Southern England. Invitation by personal letter or opportunistically by usual clinical team. Participants: Children were eligible to participate if aged over 12 months and less than 12 years, fulfilling UK Diagnostic Criteria for Atopic Dermatitis. Children with inactive or very mild eczema (5 or less on Nottingham Eczema Severity Scale) were excluded, as were children who bathed less than once a week, or whose carers were not willing to accept randomisation. 483 were randomised and one withdrew, leaving 482 children in the trial: 51% female, 84% white, mean age 5 years. Interventions: The intervention group were prescribed emollient bath additives by their usual clinical team and were asked to use them regularly for 12 months. The control group were asked to use no bath additives for 12 months. Both groups continued with standard eczema management and were given standardised advice on how to wash. Primary outcome: Eczema control measured by Patient Oriented Eczema Measure (POEM, range 0-28) weekly for 16 weeks. Secondary outcomes: Eczema severity over 1 year (4-weekly POEM from baseline to 52 weeks); number of eczema exacerbations resulting in primary healthcare consultation; disease-specific quality of life (QOL) (Dermatitis Family Impact); generic QoL (Child Health Utility-9D); resource utilisation; type and quantity of topical corticosteroid/calcineurin inhibitors prescribed. Randomisation: 483 children were randomised (1:1) using online software, stratified by recruiting centre. Results: 95.6% (461/482) of participants completed at least one post-baseline POEM, so were included in the analysis, and 76.8% (370/482) of participants completed questionnaires for more than 80% of the time points for the primary outcome (12/16 weekly questionnaires to 16 weeks). The mean Baseline POEM was 9.5 (s.d. 5.7) in the bath additives group and 10.1 (s.d. 5.8) in the no bath additives group. The mean POEM over the 16-week period was 7.5 (s.d. 6.0) in the bath additives group and 8.4 (6.0) in the no bath additives group. There was no statistically significant difference in weekly POEM scores between groups over 16 weeks. After controlling for baseline severity and confounders (ethnicity, topical corticosteroid use, soap substitute use) and allowing for clustering of participants within centres and responses within participants over time, POEM scores in the no bath additive group were 0.41 points higher than in the bath additive group (95% CI -0.27 to 1.10), below the published minimal clinically important difference for POEM of 3 points. There was no difference between groups in secondary outcomes, economic outcomes or in adverse effects. Conclusions: This trial found no evidence of clinical benefit from including emollient bath additives in the standard management of childhood eczema. Further research is needed into optimal regimens for leave-on emollient and use of soap substitutes for children with eczema

Antibiotics for lower respiratory tract infection in children presenting in primary care (ARTIC-PC): the predictive value of molecular testing

Objectives This study aimed to assess whether the presence of bacteria or viruses in the upper airway of children presenting with uncomplicated lower respiratory tract infection (LRTI) predicts the benefit of antibiotics. Methods Children between 6 months and 12 years presenting to UK general practices with an acute LRTI were randomized to receive amoxicillin 50 mg/kg/d for 7 days or placebo. Children not randomized (ineligible or clinician/parental choice) could participate in a parallel observational study. The primary outcome was the duration of symptoms rated moderately bad or worse. Throat swabs were taken and analyzed for the presence of bacteria and viruses by multiplex PCR. Results Swab results were available for most participants in the trial (306 of 432; 71%) and in the observational (182 of 326; 59%) studies. Bacterial pathogens potentially sensitive to amoxicillin (Haemophilus influenzae, Moraxella catarrhalis, Streptococcus pneumoniae) were detected among 51% of the trial placebo group and 49% of the trial antibiotic group. The median difference in the duration of symptoms rated moderately bad or worse between antibiotic and placebo was similar when potentially antibiotic-susceptible bacteria were present (median: –1 day; 99% CI, –12.3 to 10.3) or not present (median: –1 day; 99% CI, –4.5 to 2.5). Furthermore, bacterial genome copy number did not predict benefit. There were similar findings for all secondary outcomes and when including the data from the observational study. Discussion There was no clear evidence that antibiotics improved clinical outcomes conditional on the presence or concentration of bacteria or viruses in the upper airway. Before deploying microbiologic point-of-care tests for children with uncomplicated LRTI in primary care, rigorous validating trials are needed

Post-consultation acute respiratory tract infection recovery: a latent class informed analysis of individual patient data from randomised controlled trials and observational studies

Background: There is a lack of evidence regarding post-consultation symptom trajectories for patients with respiratory tract infections (RTIs) and whether patient characteristics can be used to predict illness duration. Aim: To describe symptom trajectories in patients with RTIs, assess baseline characteristics and adverse events associated with trajectories. Design and setting: 9103 adults and children from 12 primary care studies. Method: Individual patient data latent class-informed regression analysis of randomised controlled trials and observational cohort studies. Post-consultation symptom trajectory (severity and duration), re-consultation with same or worsening illness and hospitalisation were assessed. Results: 90% of participants recovered from all symptoms by 28 days, regardless of antibiotic strategy. For studies of RTI with cough as a dominant symptom (n=5314), four trajectories were identified: ‘rapid[6]’ (90% of participants recovered within 6 days)’ in 52.0%; ‘intermediate[10]’ (28.9%); ‘slow progressive improvement[27]’ (12.5%); and ‘slow initial high symptom burden[27]’ (6.6%). Older age (OR: (95% CI): 2.57 (1.72-3.85), higher presenting illness baseline severity (OR) (95% CIs): 1.51 (1.12-2.03)); presence of lung disease (OR (95% CI): 1.78 (1.44-2.21)); above median illness duration prior to consultation (OR (95% CI): 1.99 (1.68-2.37)) were associated with slower recovery (>10 days) compared to faster recovery (≤10 days). Re-consultations and hospitalisations were respectively higher in those with slower recovery (ORs: 2.15 (1.78-2.60) and 7.42 (3.49-15.78)). Conclusion: Older patients presenting with more severe, longer pre-consultation symptoms, and chronic lung disease should be advised they are more likely to experience longer post-consultation illness durations, and that recovery rates are similar with and without antibiotics

Internet tool to support self-assessment and self-swabbing of sore throat: Development and feasibility study

Background: Sore throat is a common problem and a common reason for the overuse of antibiotics. A web-based tool that helps people assess their sore throat, through the use of clinical prediction rules, taking throat swabs or saliva samples, and taking throat photographs, has the potential to improve self-management and help identify those who are the most and least likely to benefit from antibiotics. Objective: We aimed to develop a web-based tool to help patients and parents or carers self-assess sore throat symptoms and take throat photographs, swabs, and saliva samples for diagnostic testing. We then explored the acceptability and feasibility of using the tool in adults and children with sore throats. Methods: We used the Person-Based Approach to develop a web-based tool and then recruited adults and children with sore throats who participated in this study by attending general practices or through social media advertising. Participants self-assessed the presence of FeverPAIN and Centor score criteria and attempted to photograph their throat and take throat swabs and saliva tests. Study processes were observed via video call, and participants were interviewed about their views on using the web-based tool. Self-assessed throat inflammation and pus were compared to clinician evaluation of patients’ throat photographs. Results: A total of 45 participants (33 adults and 12 children) were recruited. Of these, 35 (78%) and 32 (71%) participants completed all scoring elements for FeverPAIN and Centor scores, respectively, and most (30/45, 67%) of them reported finding self-assessment relatively easy. No valid response was provided for swollen lymph nodes, throat inflammation, and pus on the throat by 11 (24%), 9 (20%), and 13 (29%) participants respectively. A total of 18 (40%) participants provided a throat photograph of adequate quality for clinical assessment. Patient assessment of inflammation had a sensitivity of 100% (3/3) and specificity of 47% (7/15) compared with the clinician-assessed photographs. For pus on the throat, the sensitivity was 100% (3/3) and the specificity was 71% (10/14). A total of 89% (40/45), 93% (42/45), 89% (40/45), and 80% (30/45) of participants provided analyzable bacterial swabs, viral swabs, saliva sponges, and saliva drool samples, respectively. Participants were generally happy and confident in providing samples, with saliva samples rated as slightly more acceptable than swab samples. Conclusions: Most adult and parent participants were able to use a web-based intervention to assess the clinical features of throat infections and generate scores using clinical prediction rules. However, some had difficulties assessing clinical signs, such as lymph nodes, throat pus, and inflammation, and scores were assessed as sensitive but not specific. Many participants had problems taking photographs of adequate quality, but most were able to take throat swabs and saliva samples

Delayed antibiotic prescribing for respiratory tract infections: protocol of an individual patient data meta-analysis

Introduction Delayed prescribing can be a useful strategy to reduce antibiotic prescribing, but it is not clear for whom delayed prescribing might be effective. This protocol outlines an individual patient data (IPD) meta-analysis of randomised controlled trials (RCTs) and observational cohort studies to explore the overall effect of delayed prescribing and identify key patient characteristics that are associated with efficacy of delayed prescribing. Methods and analysis A systematic search of the databases Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials, Ovid MEDLINE, Ovid Embase, EBSCO CINAHL Plus and Web of Science was conducted to identify relevant studies from inception to October 2017. Outcomes of interest include duration of illness, severity of illness, complication, reconsultation and patient satisfaction. Study authors of eligible papers will be contacted and invited to contribute raw IPD data. IPD data will be checked against published data, harmonised and aggregated to create one large IPD database. Multilevel regression will be performed to explore interaction effects between treatment allocation and patient characteristics. The economic evaluation will be conducted based on IPD from the combined trial and observational studies to estimate the differences in costs and effectiveness for delayed prescribing compared with normal practice. A decision model will be developed to assess potential savings and cost-effectiveness in terms of reduced antibiotic usage of delayed prescribing and quality-adjusted life years. Ethics and dissemination Ethical approval was obtained from the University of Southampton Faculty of Medicine Research Ethics Committee (Reference number: 30068). Findings of this study will be published in peer-reviewed academic journals as well as General Practice trade journals and will be presented at national and international conferences. The results will have important public health implications, shaping the way in which antibiotics are prescribed in the future and to whom delayed prescriptions are issued

Cost-effectiveness of two online interventions supporting self-care for eczema for parents/carers and young people

Objective: To estimate the cost-effectiveness of online behavioral interventions (EczemaCareOnline.org.uk) designed to support eczema self-care management for parents/carers and young people from an NHS perspective. Methods: Two within-trial economic evaluations, using regression-based approaches, adjusting for baseline and pre-specified confounder variables, were undertaken alongside two independent, pragmatic, parallel group, unmasked randomized controlled trials, recruiting through primary care. Trial 1 recruited 340 parents/carers of children aged 0–12years and Trial 2 337 young people aged 13–25years with eczema scored ≥ 5 on Patient-Oriented Eczema Measure (POEM). Participants were randomized (1:1) to online intervention plus usual care or usual care alone. Resource use, collected via medical notes review, was valued using published unit costs in UK £Sterling 2021. Quality-of-life was elicited using proxy CHU-9D in Trial 1 and self-report EQ-5D-5L in Trial 2. Results: The intervention was dominant (cost saving and more effective) with a high probability of cost-effectiveness (> 68%) in most analyses. The exception was the complete case cost–utility analysis for Trial 1 (omitting participants with children aged < 2), with adjusted incremental cost savings of -£34.15 (95% CI – 104.54 to 36.24) and incremental QALYs of – 0.003 (95% CI – 0.021 to 0.015) producing an incremental cost per QALY of £12,466. In the secondary combined (Trials 1 and 2) cost-effectiveness analysis, the adjusted incremental cost was -£20.35 (95% CI – 55.41 to 14.70) with incremental success (≥ 2-point change on POEM) of 10.3% (95% CI 2.3–18.1%). Conclusion: The free at point of use online eczema self-management intervention was low cost to run and cost-effective. Trial registration: This trial was registered prospectively with the ISRCTN registry (ISRCTN79282252). URL www.EczemaCareOnline.org.uk

Supporting self-care for eczema: protocol for two randomised controlled trials of ECO (Eczema Care Online) interventions for young people and parents/carers

Introduction Eczema care requires management of triggers and various treatments. We developed two online behavioural interventions to support eczema care called ECO (Eczema Care Online) for young people and ECO for families. This protocol describes two randomised controlled trials aimed to evaluate clinical and cost effectiveness of the two interventions. Methods and analysis Design: Two independent, pragmatic, unmasked, parallel group randomised controlled trials with internal pilots and nested health economic and process evaluation studies. Setting: Participants will be recruited from GP practices in England. Participants: young people aged 13-25 years with eczema and parents / carers of children aged 0-12 years with eczema, excluding inactive or very mild eczema (5 or less on Patient-Oriented Eczema Measure (POEM)). Interventions: Participants will be randomised to online intervention plus usual care or to usual eczema care alone. Outcome measures: Primary outcome is eczema severity over 24 weeks measured by POEM. Secondary outcomes include: POEM 4-weekly for 52 weeks, quality of life, eczema control, itch intensity (young people only), patient enablement, health service and treatment use. Process measures include treatment adherence, barriers to adherence, and intervention usage. Our sample sizes of 303 participants per trial are powered to detect a group difference of 2.5 (SD 6.5) in monthly POEM scores over 24 weeks (significance 0.05, power 0.9), allowing for 20% loss to follow-up. Cost effectiveness analysis will be from an NHS and personal social service perspective. Qualitative and quantitative process evaluation will help understand mechanisms of action and participant experiences and inform implementation. Ethics and dissemination The study has been approved by South Central Oxford A Research Ethics Committee (19/SC/0351). Recruitment is ongoing, and follow-up will be completed by mid-2022. Findings will be disseminated to participants, the public, dermatology and primary care journals, and policymakers