Transcending History’s Heavy Hand: The Future in Economic Action

Abstract This paper discusses sociological analyses of the formation and role of expectations in the economy. Recognition of the social constitution of expectations advances the understanding of economic action under conditions of uncertainty and helps to explain core features of modern capitalist societies. The range of applications of the analytical perspective is illustrated by closer examination of three core spheres of capitalist societies: consumption, investment, and innovation. To provide an idea of core challenges of the approach, three major research questions for the sociological analysis of expectations are presented.Zusammenfassung Wie lassen sich die Entstehung und die Rolle von Erwartungen in der Wirtschaft soziologisch analysieren? Erwartungen sind sozial konstituiert. Der Rekurs auf Erwartungen trägt zum Verständnis wirtschaftlichen Handelns unter Bedingungen von Unsicherheit und zum Verständnis charakteristischer Wesenszüge moderner kapitalistischer Gesellschaften bei. Nähere Betrachtungen von drei Sphären wirtschaftlicher Aktivität – Konsum, Investition und Innovation – verdeutlichen das breite Spektrum möglicher Anwendungen der Erwartungsperspektive in der Wirtschaftssoziologie. Die zentralen Herausforderungen für die soziologische Analyse von Erwartungen werden anschließend anhand von drei wichtigen Forschungsfragen skizziert.Contents 1 Introduction 2 Uncertainty and the social constitution of expectations 3 Expectations in contemporary capitalism Consumption Investment Innovation 4 Questions and perspectives of an economic sociology of expectations Where do expectations come from? How do expectations spread and gain momentum? The moral economy of expectations 5 Conclusion Reference

Radiative Transfer Modeling of Three-Dimensional Clumpy AGN Tori and its Application to NGC 1068

Recent observations of NGC 1068 and other AGN support the idea of a geometrically and optically thick dust torus surrounding the central supermassive black hole and accretion disk of AGN. In type 2 AGN, the torus is seen roughly edge-on, leading to obscuration of the central radiation source and a silicate absorption feature near 10 micron. While most of the current torus models distribute the dust smoothly, there is growing evidence that the dust must be arranged in clouds. We describe a new method for modeling near- and mid-infrared emission of 3-dimensional clumpy tori using Monte Carlo simulations. We calculate the radiation fields of individual clouds at various distances from the AGN and distribute these clouds within the torus region. The properties of the individual clouds and their distribution within the torus are determined from a theoretical approach of self-gravitating clouds close to the shear limit in a gravitational potential. We demonstrate that clumpiness in AGN tori can overcome the problem of over-pronounced silicate features. Finally, we present model calculations for the prototypical Seyfert 2 galaxy NGC 1068 and compare them to recent high-resolution measurements. Our model is able to reproduce both the SED and the interferometric observations of NGC 1068 in the near- and mid-infrared.Comment: 16 pages, 16 figures, 6 tables (figures reduced due to astro-ph limitations); accepted by A&

Where have all the black holes gone?

We have calculated stationary models for accretion disks around super-massive black holes in galactic nuclei. Our models show that below a critical mass flow rate of ~3 10**-3 M_Edd advection will dominate the energy budget while above that rate all the viscously liberated energy is radiated. The radiation efficiency declines steeply below that critical rate. This leads to a clear dichotomy between AGN and normal galaxies which is not so much given by differences in the mass flow rate but by the radiation efficiency. At very low mass accretion rates below 5 10**-5 M_Edd synchrotron emission and Bremsstrahlung dominate the SED, while above 2 10**-4 M Edd the inverse Compton radiation from synchrotron seed photons produce flat to inverted SEDs from the radio to X-rays. Finally we discuss the implications of these findings for AGN duty cycles and the long-term AGN evolution.Comment: 7 pages, 5 figures, accepted for publication in A&

Hybrid Thermal-Nonthermal Synchrotron Emission from Hot Accretion Flows

We investigate the effect of a hybrid electron population, consisting of both thermal and non-thermal particles, on the synchrotron spectrum, image size, and image shape of a hot accretion flow onto a supermassive black hole. We find two universal features in the emitted synchrotron spectrum: (i) a prominent shoulder at low (< 10^11 Hz) frequencies that is weakly dependent on the shape of the electron energy distribution, and (ii) an extended tail of emission at high (> 10^13 Hz) frequencies whose spectral slope depends on the slope of the power-law energy distribution of the electrons. In the low-frequency shoulder, the luminosity can be up to two orders of magnitude greater than with a purely thermal plasma even if only a small fraction (< 1%) of the steady-state electron energy is in the non-thermal electrons. We apply the hybrid model to the Galactic center source, Sgr A*. The observed radio and IR spectra imply that at most 1% of the steady-state electron energy is present in a power-law tail in this source. This corresponds to no more than 10% of the electron energy injected into the non-thermal electrons and hence 90% into the thermal electrons. We show that such a hybrid distribution can be sustained in the flow because thermalization via Coulomb collisions and synchrotron self-absorption are both inefficient. The presence of non-thermal electrons enlarges the size of the radio image at low frequencies and alters the frequency dependence of the brightness temperature. A purely thermal electron distributions produces a sharp-edged image while a hybrid distribution causes strong limb brightening. These effects can be seen up to frequencies ~10^11 Hz and are accessible to radio interferometers.Comment: 33 pages with figures, to appear in the Astrophysical Journa

Sgr A* Polarization: No ADAF, Low Accretion Rate, and Non-Thermal Synchrotron Emission

The recent detection of polarized radiation from Sgr A* requires a non-thermal electron distribution for the emitting plasma. The Faraday rotation measure must be small, placing strong limits on the density and magnetic field strength. We show that these constraints rule out advection-dominated accretion flow models. We construct a simple two-component model which can reproduce both the radio to mm spectrum and the polarization. This model predicts that the polarization should rise to nearly 100% at shorter wavelengths. The first component, possibly a black-hole powered jet, is compact, low density, and self-absorbed near 1 mm with ordered magnetic field, relativistic Alfven speed, and a non-thermal electron distribution. The second component is poorly constrained, but may be a convection-dominated accretion flow with dM/dt~10^-9 M_Sun/yr, in which feedback from accretion onto the black hole suppresses the accretion rate at large radii. The black hole shadow should be detectable with sub-mm VLBI.Comment: 4 pages, 1 figure, accepted by ApJL, several changes from submitted versio

Stellar Dynamics at the Galactic Center with an Extremely Large Telescope

We discuss experiments achievable via monitoring of stellar dynamics near the massive black hole at the Galactic center with a next generation, extremely large telescope (ELT). Given the likely observational capabilities of an ELT and current knowledge of the stellar environment at the Galactic center, we synthesize plausible samples of stellar orbits around the black hole. We use the Markov Chain Monte Carlo method to evaluate the constraints that orbital monitoring places on the matter content near the black hole. Results are expressed as functions of the number N of stars with detectable orbital motions and the astrometric precision dtheta and spectroscopic precision dv at which stellar proper motions and radial velocities are monitored. For N = 100, dtheta = 0.5 mas, and dv = 10 km/s -- a conservative estimate of the capabilities of a 30 meter telescope -- the extended matter distribution enclosed by the orbits will produce measurable deviations from Keplerian motion if >1000 Msun is enclosed within 0.01 pc. The black hole mass and distance to the Galactic center will be measured to better than ~0.1%. Lowest-order relativistic effects, such as the prograde precession, will be detectable if dtheta < 0.5 mas. Higher-order effects, including frame dragging due to black hole spin, requires dtheta < 0.05 mas, or the favorable discovery of a compact, highly eccentric orbit. Finally, we calculate the rate at which monitored stars undergo detectable nearby encounters with background stars. Such encounters probe the mass function of stellar remnants that accumulate near the black hole. We find that ~30 encounters will be detected over a 10 yr baseline for dtheta = 0.5 mas.Comment: 14 pages, 5 figures; discussion no longer aperture-specific (TMT -> ELT), matches ApJ versio