MSWEP : 3-hourly 0.25° global gridded precipitation (1979-2015) by merging gauge, satellite, and reanalysis data

Current global precipitation (P) datasets do not take full advantage of the complementary nature of satellite and reanalysis data. Here, we present Multi-Source Weighted-Ensemble Precipitation (MSWEP) version 1.1, a global P dataset for the period 1979-2015 with a 3hourly temporal and 0.25 degrees ffi spatial resolution, specifically designed for hydrological modeling. The design philosophy of MSWEP was to optimally merge the highest quality P data sources available as a function of timescale and location. The long-term mean of MSWEP was based on the CHPclim dataset but replaced with more accurate regional datasets where available. A correction for gauge under-catch and orographic effects was introduced by inferring catchment-average P from streamflow (Q) observations at 13 762 stations across the globe. The temporal variability of MSWEP was determined by weighted averaging of P anomalies from seven datasets; two based solely on interpolation of gauge observations (CPC Unified and GPCC), three on satellite remote sensing (CMORPH, GSMaP-MVK, and TMPA 3B42RT), and two on atmospheric model reanalysis (ERA-Interim and JRA-55). For each grid cell, the weight assigned to the gauge-based estimates was calculated from the gauge network density, while the weights assigned to the satellite-and reanalysis-based estimates were calculated from their comparative performance at the surrounding gauges. The quality of MSWEP was compared against four state-of-the-art gauge-adjusted P datasets (WFDEI-CRU, GPCP-1DD, TMPA 3B42, and CPC Unified) using independent P data from 125 FLUXNET tower stations around the globe. MSWEP obtained the highest daily correlation coefficient (R) among the five P datasets for 60.0% of the stations and a median R of 0.67 vs. 0.44-0.59 for the other datasets. We further evaluated the performance of MSWEP using hydrological modeling for 9011 catchments (< 50 000 km(2)) across the globe. Specifically, we calibrated the simple conceptual hydrological model HBV (Hydrologiska Byrans Vattenbalansavdelning) against daily Q observations with P from each of the different datasets. For the 1058 sparsely gauged catchments, representative of 83.9% of the global land surface (excluding Antarctica), MSWEP obtained a median calibration NSE of 0.52 vs. 0.29-0.39 for the other P datasets. MSWEP is available via http://www.gloh2o.org

Global-scale regionalization of hydrologic model parameters

Current state-of-the-art models typically applied at continental to global scales (hereafter called macroscale) tend to use a priori parameters, resulting in suboptimal streamflow (Q) simulation. For the first time, a scheme for regionalization of model parameters at the global scale was developed. We used data from a diverse set of 1787 small-to-medium sized catchments ( 10-10,000 km(2)) and the simple conceptual HBV model to set up and test the scheme. Each catchment was calibrated against observed daily Q, after which 674 catchments with high calibration and validation scores, and thus presumably good-quality observed Q and forcing data, were selected to serve as donor catchments. The calibrated parameter sets for the donors were subsequently transferred to 0.5 degrees grid cells with similar climatic and physiographic characteristics, resulting in parameter maps for HBV with global coverage. For each grid cell, we used the 10 most similar donor catchments, rather than the single most similar donor, and averaged the resulting simulated Q, which enhanced model performance. The 1113 catchments not used as donors were used to independently evaluate the scheme. The regionalized parameters outperformed spatially uniform (i.e., averaged calibrated) parameters for 79% of the evaluation catchments. Substantial improvements were evident for all major Koppen-Geiger climate types and even for evaluation catchments>5000 km distant from the donors. The median improvement was about half of the performance increase achieved through calibration. HBV with regionalized parameters outperformed nine state-of-the-art macroscale models, suggesting these might also benefit from the new regionalization scheme. The produced HBV parameter maps including ancillary data are available via

Exploiting Polyhedral Symmetries in Social Choice

A large amount of literature in social choice theory deals with quantifying the probability of certain election outcomes. One way of computing the probability of a specific voting situation under the Impartial Anonymous Culture assumption is via counting integral points in polyhedra. Here, Ehrhart theory can help, but unfortunately the dimension and complexity of the involved polyhedra grows rapidly with the number of candidates. However, if we exploit available polyhedral symmetries, some computations become possible that previously were infeasible. We show this in three well known examples: Condorcet's paradox, Condorcet efficiency of plurality voting and in Plurality voting vs Plurality Runoff.Comment: 14 pages; with minor improvements; to be published in Social Choice and Welfar

Interfacial Tension of the Lipid Membrane Formed from Phosphatidylcholine–Decanoic Acid and Phosphatidylcholine–Decylamine Systems

Interfacial tension has been determined for phosphatidylcholine (PC)–decanoic acid (DA) and PC–decylamine (DE) membranes. PC (lecithin), DA and DE were used in the experiments; the interfacial tension values of the pure components are 1.62 × 10−3, −2.38 × 10−2 and −3.88 × 10−2 N/m (hypothetical values for DA and DE), respectively. The 1:1 complexes were formed during formation of PC–DA and PC–DE membranes. The following parameters describing the complexes were determined: the surface concentrations of the lipid membranes formed from these complexes, \documentclass[12pt]{minimal} \usepackage{amsmath} \usepackage{wasysym} \usepackage{amsfonts} \usepackage{amssymb} \usepackage{amsbsy} \usepackage{mathrsfs} \usepackage{upgreek} \setlength{\oddsidemargin}{-69pt} \begin{document}$$A_{3}^{ - 1}$$\end{document}; the interfacial tensions of such membranes, γ3; and the stability constants of these complexes, K

Improving the use of research evidence in guideline development: 1. Guidelines for guidelines

BACKGROUND: The World Health Organization (WHO), like many other organisations around the world, has recognised the need to use more rigorous processes to ensure that health care recommendations are informed by the best available research evidence. This is the first of a series of 16 reviews that have been prepared as background for advice from the WHO Advisory Committee on Health Research to WHO on how to achieve this. OBJECTIVES: We reviewed the literature on guidelines for the development of guidelines. METHODS: We searched PubMed and three databases of methodological studies for existing systematic reviews and relevant methodological research. We did not conduct systematic reviews ourselves. Our conclusions are based on the available evidence, consideration of what WHO and other organisations are doing and logical arguments. KEY QUESTIONS AND ANSWERS: We found no experimental research that compared different formats of guidelines for guidelines or studies that compared different components of guidelines for guidelines. However, there are many examples, surveys and other observational studies that compared the impact of different guideline development documents on guideline quality. WHAT HAVE OTHER ORGANIZATIONS DONE TO DEVELOP GUIDELINES FOR GUIDELINES FROM WHICH WHO CAN LEARN? • Establish a credible, independent committee that evaluates existing methods for developing guidelines or that updates existing ones. • Obtain feedback and approval from various stakeholders during the development process of guidelines for guidelines. • Develop a detailed source document (manual) that guideline developers can use as reference material. WHAT SHOULD BE THE KEY COMPONENTS OF WHO GUIDELINES FOR GUIDELINES? • Guidelines for guidelines should include information and instructions about the following components: 1) Priority setting; 2) Group composition and consultations; 3) Declaration and avoidance of conflicts of interest; 4) Group processes; 5) Identification of important outcomes; 6) Explicit definition of the questions and eligibility criteria ; 7) Type of study designs for different questions; 8) Identification of evidence; 9) Synthesis and presentation of evidence; 10) Specification and integration of values; 11) Making judgments about desirable and undesirable effects; 12) Taking account of equity; 13) Grading evidence and recommendations; 14) Taking account of costs; 15) Adaptation, applicability, transferability of guidelines; 16) Structure of reports; 17) Methods of peer review; 18) Planned methods of dissemination & implementation; 19) Evaluation of the guidelines. WHAT HAVE OTHER ORGANIZATIONS DONE TO IMPLEMENT GUIDELINES FOR GUIDELINES FROM WHICH WHO CAN LEARN? • Obtain buy-in from regions and country level representatives for guidelines for guidelines before dissemination of a revised version. • Disseminate the guidelines for guidelines widely and make them available (e.g. on the Internet). • Develop examples of guidelines that guideline developers can use as models when applying the guidelines for guidelines. • Ensure training sessions for those responsible for developing guidelines. • Continue to monitor the methodological literature on guideline development

A review of the methodological features of systematic reviews in maternal medicine

Background In maternal medicine, research evidence is scattered making it difficult to access information for clinical decision making. Systematic reviews of good methodological quality are essential to provide valid inferences and to produce usable evidence summaries to guide management. This review assesses the methodological features of existing systematic reviews in maternal medicine, comparing Cochrane and non-Cochrane reviews in maternal medicine. Methods Medline, Embase, Database of Reviews of Effectiveness (DARE) and Cochrane Database of Systematic Reviews (CDSR) were searched for relevant reviews published between 2001 and 2006. We selected those reviews in which a minimum of two databases were searched and the primary outcome was related to the maternal condition. The selected reviews were assessed for information on framing of question, literature search and methods of review. Results Out of 2846 citations, 68 reviews were selected. Among these, 39 (57%) were Cochrane reviews. Most of the reviews (50/68, 74%) evaluated therapeutic interventions. Overall, 54/68 (79%) addressed a focussed question. Although 64/68 (94%) reviews had a detailed search description, only 17/68 (25%) searched without language restriction. 32/68 (47%) attempted to include unpublished data and 11/68 (16%) assessed for the risk of missing studies quantitatively. The reviews had deficiencies in the assessment of validity of studies and exploration for heterogeneity. When compared to Cochrane reviews, other reviews were significantly inferior in specifying questions (OR 20.3, 95% CI 1.1–381.3, p = 0.04), framing focussed questions (OR 30.9, 95% CI 3.7- 256.2, p = 0.001), use of unpublished data (OR 5.6, 95% CI 1.9–16.4, p = 0.002), assessment for heterogeneity (OR 38.1, 95%CI 2.1, 688.2, p = 0.01) and use of meta-analyses (OR 3.7, 95% CI 1.3–10.8, p = 0.02). Conclusion This study identifies areas which have a strong influence on maternal morbidity and mortality but lack good quality systematic reviews. Overall quality of the existing systematic reviews was variable. Cochrane reviews were of better quality as compared to other reviews. There is a need for good quality systematic reviews to inform practice in maternal medicine

Fetal in vivo continuous cardiovascular function during chronic hypoxia.

Although the fetal cardiovascular defence to acute hypoxia and the physiology underlying it have been established for decades, how the fetal cardiovascular system responds to chronic hypoxia has been comparatively understudied. We designed and created isobaric hypoxic chambers able to maintain pregnant sheep for prolonged periods of gestation under controlled significant (10% O2) hypoxia, yielding fetal mean P(aO2) levels (11.5 ± 0.6 mmHg) similar to those measured in human fetuses of hypoxic pregnancy. We also created a wireless data acquisition system able to record fetal blood flow signals in addition to fetal blood pressure and heart rate from free moving ewes as the hypoxic pregnancy is developing. We determined in vivo longitudinal changes in fetal cardiovascular function including parallel measurement of fetal carotid and femoral blood flow and oxygen and glucose delivery during the last third of gestation. The ratio of oxygen (from 2.7 ± 0.2 to 3.8 ± 0.8; P < 0.05) and of glucose (from 2.3 ± 0.1 to 3.3 ± 0.6; P < 0.05) delivery to the fetal carotid, relative to the fetal femoral circulation, increased during and shortly after the period of chronic hypoxia. In contrast, oxygen and glucose delivery remained unchanged from baseline in normoxic fetuses. Fetal plasma urate concentration increased significantly during chronic hypoxia but not during normoxia (Δ: 4.8 ± 1.6 vs. 0.5 ± 1.4 μmol l(-1), P<0.05). The data support the hypotheses tested and show persisting redistribution of substrate delivery away from peripheral and towards essential circulations in the chronically hypoxic fetus, associated with increases in xanthine oxidase-derived reactive oxygen species.This work was supported by the British Heart Foundation.This is the author accepted manuscript. The final version is available from Wiley via http://dx.doi.org/10.1113/JP27109

Using fractional exhaled nitric oxide (FeNO) to diagnose steroid-responsive disease and guide asthma management in routine care

Acknowledgements We thank Robin Taylor for his informative thinking and publications on FeNO, which have helped to influence and direct the thinking of the authors. Funding Extraction of the real-life dataset was funded by Research in Real Life Limited, the analysis of the dataset and the writing of this manuscript were co-funded (50:50) by Research in Real Life Limited and Aerocrine.Peer reviewedPublisher PD

Toxic Epidermal Necrolysis after Pemetrexed and Cisplatin for Non-Small Cell Lung Cancer in a Patient with Sharp Syndrome

Background: Pemetrexed is an antifolate drug approved for maintenance and second-line therapy, and, in combination with cisplatin, for first-line treatment of advanced nonsquamous non-small cell lung cancer. The side-effect profile includes fatigue, hematological and gastrointestinal toxicity, an increase in hepatic enzymes, sensory neuropathy, and pulmonary and cutaneous toxicity in various degrees. Case Report: We present the case of a 58-year-old woman with history of Sharp's syndrome and adenocarcinoma of the lung, who developed toxic epidermal necrolysis after the first cycle of pemetrexed, including erythema, bullae, extensive skin denudation, subsequent systemic inflammation and severe deterioration in general condition. The generalized skin lesions occurred primarily in the previous radiation field and responded to immunosuppressive treatment with prednisone. Conclusion: Although skin toxicity is a well-known side effect of pemetrexed, severe skin reactions after pemetrexed administration are rare. Caution should be applied in cases in which pemetrexed is given subsequent to radiation therapy, especially in patients with pre-existing skin diseases