Euro area labour markets: different reaction to shocks?

A small labour market model for the six largest euro area countries (Germany, France, Italy, Spain, the Netherlands, Belgium) is estimated in a state -space framework. The model entails, in the long run, four driving forces: a trend labour force component, a trend labour productivity component, a long-run inflation rate and a trend hours worked component. The short run dynamics is governed by a VAR model including six shocks. The state-space framework is convenient for the decomposition of endogenous variables in trends and cycles, for shock decomposition, for incorporating external judgement, and for running conditional projections. The forecast performance of the model is rather satisfactory. The model is used to carry out a policy experiment with the objective of investigating whether euro area countries differ in the labour market adjustment to a reduction in labour costs. Results suggest that, following the 2008-09 recession, moderate wage growth would significantly help delivering a more job-intense recovery. JEL Classification: C51, C53, E17, J21forecasting, Kalman filter, Labor market

Wage growth dispersion across the euro area countries - some stylised facts

This study presents some stylised facts on wage growth differentials across the euro area countries in the years before and in the first eight years after the introduction of Economic and Monetary Union (EMU) in 1999. The study shows that wage growth dispersion, i.e. the degree of difference in wage growth at a given point in time, has been on a clear downward trend since the early 1980s. However, wage growth dispersion across the euro area countries still appears to be higher than the degree of wage growth dispersion within West Germany, the United States, Italy and Spain. Differences in wage growth rates between individual euro area countries and the euro area in the years before and in the first eight years after the introduction of EMU appear to be positively related to the respective differences between their Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) inflation and average HICP inflation in the euro area. Conversely, relative wage growth differentials across euro area countries have been somewhat unrelated to relative productivity growth differentials. Some countries combine positive wage growth differentials and negative productivity growth differentials vis-à-vis the euro area average over an extended period – and hence positive unit labour cost growth differentials. These countries run the risk of accumulating competitiveness losses and it is therefore a challenge to ensure that the necessary adjustment mechanisms operate fully, in the sense that wage developments are sufficiently flexible and reflect productivity developments. Wage growth persistence within individual euro area countries – largely reflecting inflation persistence and certain institutional factors – might also have contributed somewhat to wage growth differentials across the euro area countries. Moreover, wage level convergence has also played a role in explaining wage growth patterns in the 1980s and the 1990s. However, since 1999, the link between the initial compensation level and the subsequent growth rate of compensation per employee appears barely significant. The study also shows a limited co-movement of wage growth across countries, even in the context of a high degree of business cycle synchronisation seen in the last few years. This suggests that the impact on wage growth of country-specific developments across euro area countries has been larger than the impact of common cyclical developments and external shocks. This could reflect the normal and desirable working of adjustment mechanisms, which – in an optimally functioning currency union with synchronised business cycles – would take place via price and cost and wage developments. On the other hand, structural impediments, for example a relatively low degree of openness in domestically-oriented sectors in some countries, might prevent a stronger link between the degree of synchronisation of wage growth rates and business cycles. JEL Classification: E24, E31, C10.Cross-country wage dispersion, wage and productivity levels across countries and sectors.

Institutions and Growth in Europe. CEPS Working Document No. 421, April 2016

This paper provides empirical evidence in support of the view that the quality of institutions is an important determinant of long-term growth of European countries. When also taking into account the initial level of GDP per capita and government debt, cross-country institutional differences can explain to a great extent the relative long-term GDP performance of European countries. It also shows that an initial government debt level above a threshold (e.g. 60-70%) coupled with institutional quality below the EU average tends to be associated with particularly poor long-term real growth performance. Interestingly, the detrimental effect of high debt levels on long-term growth seems cushioned by the presence of very sound institutions. This might be because good institutions help to alleviate the debt problem in various ways, e.g. by ensuring sufficient fiscal consolidation in the longer-run, allowing for better use of government expenditures and promoting sustainable growth, social fairness and more efficient tax administration. The quality of national institutions seems to enhance the long-term GDP performance across a large sample of countries, also including OECD countries outside Europe. The paper offers some evidence that, in the presence of good institutions, conditions for catching-up seem generally good also for euro-area and fixed exchange rate countries. Looking at sub-groupings, it seems that sound institutions may be particularly important for long-term growth in the countries where the exchange rate tool is no longer available (and where also sovereign debt is high), and less so in the countries with flexible exchange rate regimes. However, this result is preliminary and requires further research. The empirical findings on the importance of institutions are robust to various measures of output growth, different measures of institutional indicators, different sample sizes, different country groupings and to the inclusion of additional control variables. Overall, the results tend to support the call for structural reforms in general and reforms enhancing the efficiency of public administration and regulation, the rule of law and the fight against rent-seeking and corruption in particular

Monetary policies for open economics.

SIGLEAvailable from British Library Document Supply Centre-DSC:DXN042043 / BLDSC - British Library Document Supply CentreGBUnited Kingdo

Output growth differentials across the euro area countries - some stylised facts

The aim of this study is to investigate the extent to which the dispersion of real GDP growth rates has changed over the past few years and whether the synchronisation of business cycles has increased among the euro area countries. The study is divided into two main parts. The f irst focuses on the dispersion of real GDP growth rates across the euro area countries, while the second studies the synchronisation of business cycles within the euro area. The study shows first that dispersion of real GDP growth rates across the euro area countries in both unweighted and weighted terms has no apparent upward or downward trend during the period 1970-2004 as a whole. Second, since the beginning of the 1990s, the dispersion of real GDP growth rates across the euro area countries has largely reflected lasting trend growth differences, and less so cyclical differences, with some countries persistently exhibiting output growth either above or below the euro area average. Among other things, this might be due to different trends in demographics, as well as to differences in structural reforms undertaken in the past. Thirdly, the degree of synchronisation of business cycles across the euro area countries seems to have increased since the beginning of the 1990s. This f inding holds for various measures of synchronisation applied to overall activity and to the cyclical component, for annual and quarterly data, as well as for various country groupings. In particular, the degree of correlation currently appears to be at a historical high. In addition to these main findings, certain other stylised facts on dispersion and synchronisation are presented. JEL Classification: C10; E32; O40.Dispersion of GDP growth across the euro area countries; trend and cycle; synchronisation of business cycles within the euro area.

Institutions, public debt and growth in Europe

This paper provides empirical evidence that supports the view that the quality of institutions is an important determinant of long-term growth in European countries. It shows that an initial high government debt level coupled with institutional quality below the EU average tends to be associated with particularly poor longterm real growth performance. Interestingly, the detrimental effect of high debt levels on long-term growth seems cushioned by the presence of very sound institutions. The paper offers some evidence that sound institutions may be particularly important for long-term growth in countries in which the exchange rate tool is no longer available and less so in countries with flexible exchange rate regimes. The empirical findings on the importance of institutions are robust to various measures of output growth, different measures of institutional indicators, different sample sizes, different country groupings and to the inclusions of additional control variables

Prvi nalaz vrste Paradiopatra bihanica (Polychaeta, onuphidae) u Jadranskom moru

Paradiopatra bihanica (Intes & Le Loeuff, 1975) (Polychaeta, Onuphidae) is reported for the first time in the Adriatic Sea. In this study the morphological characters of the observed individuals are provided, as well as the extension of its hitherto geographical distribution.Paradiopatra bihanica (Intes & Le Loeuff, 1975) (Polychaeta, Onuphidae) je po prvi put pronađena u Jadranskom moru. U ovom radu su prikazane morfološke karakteristike istraživanih jedinki, te su priloženi podaci o njezinoj geografskoj raspodjeli

Case report: Infective endocarditis after transcatheter aortic valve implantation surgically treated with sutureless prosthesis and ascending aorta replacement

Infective endocarditis on transcatheter aortic valve implantation (TAVI) represents an increasingly frequent challenge for cardiac surgeons. Patients undergoing TAVI usually have high mortality risk scores and unsuitable anatomy for the traditional surgical approach. Therefore, surgical planning is crucial, albeit sometimes intraoperative findings can be unexpected and arduous. We describe a case of infective endocarditis on TAVI in a patient with a porcelain aorta and “hostile” aortic root surgically treated with Perceval sutureless prosthesis and ascending aorta replacement

Spectrophotometric technology for the early detection of cutaneous melanoma

This paper presents the design and experimental outcomes of an ongoing research project aimed at the early detection of melanoma by means of a new diagnostic device. This device, based on the principles of spectrophotometry, is expected to improve upon the current diagnostic methods, which are known to carry a margin of error quantified as 10-20%. This article presents the implemented technology, in the form of two scanning prototypes, the current experimental work, and the analysis procedures leading to the development of a diagnostic model based upon the spectral representation of pigmented lesions