Phylogenetic Networks and Parameters Inferred from HIV Nucleotide Sequences of High-Risk and General Population Groups in Uganda:Implications for Epidemic Control

Phylogenetic inference is useful in characterising HIV transmission networks and assessing where prevention is likely to have the greatest impact. However, estimating parameters that influence the network structure is still scarce, but important in evaluating determinants of HIV spread. We analyzed 2017 HIV pol sequences (728 Lake Victoria fisherfolk communities (FFCs), 592 female sex workers (FSWs) and 697 general population (GP)) to identify transmission networks on Maximum Likelihood (ML) phylogenetic trees and refined them using time-resolved phylogenies. Network generative models were fitted to the observed degree distributions and network parameters, and corrected Akaike Information Criteria and Bayesian Information Criteria values were estimated. 347 (17.2%) HIV sequences were linked on ML trees (maximum genetic distance ≤4.5%, ≥95% bootstrap support) and, of these, 303 (86.7%) that consisted of pure A1 (n = 168) and D (n = 135) subtypes were analyzed in BEAST v1.8.4. The majority of networks (at least 40%) were found at a time depth of ≤5 years. The waring and yule models fitted best networks of FFCs and FSWs respectively while the negative binomial model fitted best networks in the GP. The network structure in the HIV-hyperendemic FFCs is likely to be scale-free and shaped by preferential attachment, in contrast to the GP. The findings support the targeting of interventions for FFCs in a timely manner for effective epidemic control. Interventions ought to be tailored according to the dynamics of the HIV epidemic in the target population and understanding the network structure is critical in ensuring the success of HIV prevention programs

The Molecular Epidemiology and Transmission Dynamics of HIV Type 1 in a General Population Cohort in Uganda

The General Population Cohort (GPC) in south-western Uganda has a low HIV-1 incidence rate (25 years (aOR = 1.52; 95% CI, 1.16-2.0) and being a resident in the GPC (aOR = 6.90; 95% CI, 5.22-9.21). Phylogeographic analysis showed significant viral dissemination (Bayes Factor test, BF > 3) from the GPC without significant viral introductions (BF < 3) into the GPC. The findings suggest localized HIV-1 transmission in the GPC. Intensifying geographically focused combination interventions in the GPC would contribute towards controlling HIV-1 infections

Rates of HIV-1 virological suppression and patterns of acquired drug resistance among fisherfolk on first-line antiretroviral therapy in Uganda.

OBJECTIVES: We examined virological outcomes, patterns of acquired HIV drug resistance (ADR), correlates of virological failure (VF) and acquired drug resistance among fisherfolk on first-line ART. METHODS: We enrolled 1169 adults on ART for a median duration of 6, 12, 24, 36 and ≥48 months and used a pooled VL testing approach to identify VF (VL ≥1000 copies/mL). We performed genotyping among VF cases and determined correlates of VF and ADR by logistic regression. RESULTS: The overall virological suppression rate was 91.7% and ADR was detected in 71/97 (73.2%) VF cases. The most prevalent mutations were M184V/I (53.6%) for NRTIs and K103N (39.2%) for NNRTIs. Thymidine analogue mutations were detected in 21.6% of VF cases while PI mutations were absent. A zidovudine-based ART regimen, duration on ART (≥24 months) and secondary/higher education level were significantly associated with VF. A nevirapine-based regimen [adjusted OR (aOR): 1.87; 95% CI: 0.03-0.54)] and VL ≥10000 copies/mL (aOR: 3.48; 95% CI: 1.37-8.85) were ADR correlates. The pooling strategies for VL testing with a negative predictive value (NPV) of ≥95.2% saved US $20320 (43.5%) in VL testing costs. CONCLUSIONS: We observed high virological suppression rates among these highly mobile fisherfolk; however, there was widespread ADR among those with VF at the first VL testing prior to intensive adherence counselling. Timely treatment switching and adherence support is recommended for better treatment outcomes. Adoption of pooled VL testing could be cost effective, particularly in resource-limited settings

Pervasive and non-random recombination in near full-length HIV genomes from Uganda

Recombination is an important feature of HIV evolution, occurring both within and between the major branches of diversity (subtypes). The Ugandan epidemic is primarily composed of two subtypes, A1 and D, that have been co-circulating for 50 years, frequently recombining in dually infected patients. Here, we investigate the frequency of recombinants in this population and the location of breakpoints along the genome. As part of the PANGEA-HIV consortium, 1,472 consensus genome sequences over 5 kb have been obtained from 1,857 samples collected by the MRC/UVRI & LSHTM Research unit in Uganda, 465 (31.6 per cent) of which were near full-length sequences (>8 kb). Using the subtyping tool SCUEAL, we find that of the near full-length dataset, 233 (50.1 per cent) genomes contained only one subtype, 30.8 per cent A1 (n = 143), 17.6 per cent D (n = 82), and 1.7 per cent C (n = 8), while 49.9 per cent (n = 232) contained more than one subtype (including A1/D (n = 164), A1/C (n = 13), C/D (n = 9); A1/C/D (n = 13), and 33 complex types). K-means clustering of the recombinant A1/D genomes revealed a section of envelope (C2gp120-TMgp41) is often inherited intact, whilst a generalized linear model was used to demonstrate significantly fewer breakpoints in the gag-pol and envelope C2-TM regions compared with accessory gene regions. Despite similar recombination patterns in many recombinants, no clearly supported circulating recombinant form (CRF) was found, there was limited evidence of the transmission of breakpoints, and the vast majority (153/164; 93 per cent) of the A1/D recombinants appear to be unique recombinant forms. Thus, recombination is pervasive with clear biases in breakpoint location, but CRFs are not a significant feature, characteristic of a complex, and diverse epidemic

Phylogeography of HIV-1 suggests that Ugandan fishing communities are a sink for, not a source of, virus from general populations

Although fishing communities (FCs) in Uganda are disproportionately affected by HIV-1 relative to the general population (GP), the transmission dynamics are not completely understood. We earlier found most HIV-1 transmissions to occur within FCs of Lake Victoria. Here, we test the hypothesis that HIV-1 transmission in FCs is isolated from networks in the GP. We used phylogeography to reconstruct the geospatial viral migration patterns in 8 FCs and 2 GP cohorts and a Bayesian phylogenetic inference in BEAST v1.8.4 to analyse the temporal dynamics of HIV-1 transmission. Subtype A1 (pol region) was most prevalent in the FCs (115, 45.1%) and GP (177, 50.4%). More recent HIV transmission pairs from FCs were found at a genetic distance (GD) <1.5% than in the GP (Fisher's exact test, p = 0.001). The mean time depth for pairs was shorter in FCs (5 months) than in the GP (4 years). Phylogeographic analysis showed strong support for viral migration from the GP to FCs without evidence of substantial viral dissemination to the GP. This suggests that FCs are a sink for, not a source of, virus strains from the GP. Targeted interventions in FCs should be extended to include the neighbouring GP for effective epidemic control

High Levels of Acquired HIV Drug Resistance Following Virological Nonsuppression in HIV-Infected Women from a High-Risk Cohort in Uganda.

HIV drug resistance (HIVDR) is of increasing health concern, especially among key populations. We investigated the prevalence of virological suppression (VS), prevalence and correlates of HIVDR in HIV-infected women, enrolled in a high-risk cohort. We enrolled 267 women initiated on first-line antiretroviral therapy (ART) between 2015 and 2018. Participants' plasma samples were analyzed for HIV RNA viral load (VL) and genotypic resistance testing was performed on those with VL nonsuppression (defined as VL ≥1,000 copies/mL). We used the Stanford HIVDR database-algorithm to assess HIVDR mutations and logistic regression to assess risk factors for VL nonsuppression and HIVDR. We observed an overall VS prevalence of 76.0% (203/267) and detected respective acquired drug resistance prevalence to non-nucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitors (NNRTIs) and nucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitors (NRTIs) of 81.3% [confidence interval (CI) 67.4-91.1] and 45.8% (CI 31.4-60.8) among the 48 successfully genotyped VL nonsuppressors. NNRTI mutations were observed in 81.3% (39/48) of the genotyped participants and 45.8% (22/48) had both NRTI and NNRTI mutations. The mutation K103N was detected in 62.5% (30/48) of participants, 41.7% (20/48) had M184V/I, 14.6% had K65R, and 12.5% (6/48) had thymidine analog mutations (TAMs). None of the analyzed potential risk factors, including age and duration on ART, was significantly correlated with VL nonsuppression or HIVDR. Although high levels of NNRTI mutations support the transition to dolutegravir, the presence of NRTI mutations, especially TAMs, may compromise dolutegravir-based regimens or other second-line ART options. The moderate VS prevalence and high HIVDR prevalence therefore call for timely ART switching and intensive adherence counseling

The evolving SARS-CoV-2 epidemic in Africa: insights from rapidly expanding genomic surveillance

Investment in SARS-CoV-2 sequencing in Africa over the past year has led to a major increase in the number of sequences generated, now exceeding 100,000 genomes, used to track the pandemic on the continent. Our results show an increase in the number of African countries able to sequence domestically, and highlight that local sequencing enables faster turnaround time and more regular routine surveillance. Despite limitations of low testing proportions, findings from this genomic surveillance study underscore the heterogeneous nature of the pandemic and shed light on the distinct dispersal dynamics of Variants of Concern, particularly Alpha, Beta, Delta, and Omicron, on the continent. Sustained investment for diagnostics and genomic surveillance in Africa is needed as the virus continues to evolve, while the continent faces many emerging and re-emerging infectious disease threats. These investments are crucial for pandemic preparedness and response and will serve the health of the continent well into the 21st century

The evolving SARS-CoV-2 epidemic in Africa: Insights from rapidly expanding genomic surveillance.

Investment in severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) sequencing in Africa over the past year has led to a major increase in the number of sequences that have been generated and used to track the pandemic on the continent, a number that now exceeds 100,000 genomes. Our results show an increase in the number of African countries that are able to sequence domestically and highlight that local sequencing enables faster turnaround times and more-regular routine surveillance. Despite limitations of low testing proportions, findings from this genomic surveillance study underscore the heterogeneous nature of the pandemic and illuminate the distinct dispersal dynamics of variants of concern-particularly Alpha, Beta, Delta, and Omicron-on the continent. Sustained investment for diagnostics and genomic surveillance in Africa is needed as the virus continues to evolve while the continent faces many emerging and reemerging infectious disease threats. These investments are crucial for pandemic preparedness and response and will serve the health of the continent well into the 21st century

The evolving SARS-CoV-2 epidemic in Africa: Insights from rapidly expanding genomic surveillance

INTRODUCTION Investment in Africa over the past year with regard to severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) sequencing has led to a massive increase in the number of sequences, which, to date, exceeds 100,000 sequences generated to track the pandemic on the continent. These sequences have profoundly affected how public health officials in Africa have navigated the COVID-19 pandemic. RATIONALE We demonstrate how the first 100,000 SARS-CoV-2 sequences from Africa have helped monitor the epidemic on the continent, how genomic surveillance expanded over the course of the pandemic, and how we adapted our sequencing methods to deal with an evolving virus. Finally, we also examine how viral lineages have spread across the continent in a phylogeographic framework to gain insights into the underlying temporal and spatial transmission dynamics for several variants of concern (VOCs). RESULTS Our results indicate that the number of countries in Africa that can sequence the virus within their own borders is growing and that this is coupled with a shorter turnaround time from the time of sampling to sequence submission. Ongoing evolution necessitated the continual updating of primer sets, and, as a result, eight primer sets were designed in tandem with viral evolution and used to ensure effective sequencing of the virus. The pandemic unfolded through multiple waves of infection that were each driven by distinct genetic lineages, with B.1-like ancestral strains associated with the first pandemic wave of infections in 2020. Successive waves on the continent were fueled by different VOCs, with Alpha and Beta cocirculating in distinct spatial patterns during the second wave and Delta and Omicron affecting the whole continent during the third and fourth waves, respectively. Phylogeographic reconstruction points toward distinct differences in viral importation and exportation patterns associated with the Alpha, Beta, Delta, and Omicron variants and subvariants, when considering both Africa versus the rest of the world and viral dissemination within the continent. Our epidemiological and phylogenetic inferences therefore underscore the heterogeneous nature of the pandemic on the continent and highlight key insights and challenges, for instance, recognizing the limitations of low testing proportions. We also highlight the early warning capacity that genomic surveillance in Africa has had for the rest of the world with the detection of new lineages and variants, the most recent being the characterization of various Omicron subvariants. CONCLUSION Sustained investment for diagnostics and genomic surveillance in Africa is needed as the virus continues to evolve. This is important not only to help combat SARS-CoV-2 on the continent but also because it can be used as a platform to help address the many emerging and reemerging infectious disease threats in Africa. In particular, capacity building for local sequencing within countries or within the continent should be prioritized because this is generally associated with shorter turnaround times, providing the most benefit to local public health authorities tasked with pandemic response and mitigation and allowing for the fastest reaction to localized outbreaks. These investments are crucial for pandemic preparedness and response and will serve the health of the continent well into the 21st century