Derivation of an electronic frailty index for predicting short-term mortality in heart failure: a machine learning approach

Aims Frailty may be found in heart failure patients especially in the elderly and is associated with a poor prognosis. However, assessment of frailty status is time-consuming, and the electronic frailty indices developed using health records have served as useful surrogates. We hypothesized that an electronic frailty index developed using machine learning can improve short-term mortality prediction in patients with heart failure. Methods and results This was a retrospective observational study that included patients admitted to nine public hospitals for heart failure from Hong Kong between 2013 and 2017. Age, sex, variables in the modified frailty index, Deyo's Charlson co-morbidity index (≥2), neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio (NLR), and prognostic nutritional index at baseline were analysed. Gradient boosting, which is a supervised sequential ensemble learning algorithm with weak prediction submodels (typically decision trees), was applied to predict mortality. Variables were ranked in the order of importance with a total score of 100 and used to build the frailty models. Comparisons were made with decision tree and multivariable logistic regression. A total of 8893 patients (median: age 81, Q1–Q3: 71–87 years old) were included, in whom 9% had 30 day mortality and 17% had 90 day mortality. Prognostic nutritional index, age, and NLR were the most important variables predicting 30 day mortality (importance score: 37.4, 32.1, and 20.5, respectively) and 90 day mortality (importance score: 35.3, 36.3, and 14.6, respectively). Gradient boosting significantly outperformed decision tree and multivariable logistic regression. The area under the curve from a five-fold cross validation was 0.90 for gradient boosting and 0.87 and 0.86 for decision tree and logistic regression in predicting 30 day mortality. For the prediction of 90 day mortality, the area under the curve was 0.92, 0.89, and 0.86 for gradient boosting, decision tree, and logistic regression, respectively. Conclusions The electronic frailty index based on co-morbidities, inflammation, and nutrition information can readily predict mortality outcomes. Their predictive performances were significantly improved by gradient boosting techniques

Incorporating latent variables using nonnegative matrix factorization improves risk stratification in Brugada syndrome

Background: A combination of clinical and electrocardiographic risk factors is used for risk stratification in Brugada syndrome. In this study, we tested the hypothesis that the incorporation of latent variables between variables using nonnegative matrix factorization can improve risk stratification compared with logistic regression. Methods and Results: This was a retrospective cohort study of patients presented with Brugada electrocardiographic patterns between 2000 and 2016 from Hong Kong, China. The primary outcome was spontaneous ventricular tachycardia/ventricular fibrillation. The external validation cohort included patients from 3 countries. A total of 149 patients with Brugada syndrome (84% males, median age of presentation 50 [38–61] years) were included. Compared with the nonarrhythmic group (n=117, 79%), the spontaneous ventricular tachycardia/ ventricular fibrillation group (n=32, 21%) were more likely to suffer from syncope (69% versus 37%, P=0.001) and atrial fibrillation (16% versus 4%, P=0.023) as well as displayed longer QTc intervals (424 [399–449] versus 408 [386–425]; P=0.020). No difference in QRS interval was observed (108 [98–114] versus 102 [95–110], P=0.104). Logistic regression found that syncope (odds ratio, 3.79; 95% CI, 1.64–8.74; P=0.002), atrial fibrillation (odds ratio, 4.15; 95% CI, 1.12–15.36; P=0.033), QRS duration (odds ratio, 1.03; 95% CI, 1.002–1.06; P=0.037) and QTc interval (odds ratio, 1.02; 95% CI, 1.01–1.03; P=0.009) were significant predictors of spontaneous ventricular tachycardia/ventricular fibrillation. Increasing the number of latent variables of these electrocardiographic indices incorporated from n=0 (logistic regression) to n=6 by nonnegative matrix factorization improved the area under the curve of the receiving operating characteristics curve from 0.71 to 0.80. The model improves area under the curve of external validation cohort (n=227) from 0.64 to 0.71. Conclusions: Nonnegative matrix factorization improves the predictive performance of arrhythmic outcomes by extracting latent features between different variables

Association of NPAC score with survival after acute myocardial infarction

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Risk stratification in acute myocardial infarction (AMI) is important for guiding clinical management. Current risk scores are mostly derived from clinical trials with stringent patient selection. We aimed to establish and evaluate a composite scoring system to improve short-term mortality classification after index episodes of AMI, independent of electrocardiography (ECG) pattern, in a large real-world cohort. METHODS: Using electronic health records, patients admitted to our regional teaching hospital (derivation cohort, n = 1747) and an independent tertiary care center (validation cohort, n = 1276), with index acute myocardial infarction between January 2013 and December 2017, as confirmed by principal diagnosis and laboratory findings, were identified retrospectively. RESULTS: Univariate logistic regression was used as the primary model to identify potential contributors to mortality. Stepwise forward likelihood ratio logistic regression revealed that neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio, peripheral vascular disease, age, and serum creatinine (NPAC) were significant for 90-day mortality (Hosmer- Lemeshow test, p = 0.21). Each component of the NPAC score was weighted by beta-coefficients in multivariate analysis. The C-statistic of the NPAC score was 0.75, which was higher than the conventional Charlson's score (C-statistic = 0.63). Judicious application of a deep learning model to our dataset improved the accuracy of classification with a C-statistic of 0.81. CONCLUSIONS: The NPAC score comprises four items from routine laboratory parameters to basic clinical information and can facilitate early identification of cases at risk of short-term mortality following index myocardial infarction. Deep learning model can serve as a gatekeeper to facilitate clinical decision-making

The role of cardiac magnetic resonance in identifying appropriate candidates for cardiac resynchronization therapy - a systematic review of the literature

Despite the strict indications for cardiac resynchronization therapy (CRT) implantation, a significant proportion of patients will fail to adequately respond to the treatment. This systematic review aims to present the existing evidence about the role of cardiac magnetic resonance (CMR) in identifying patients who are likely to respond better to the CRT. A systematic search in the MedLine database and Cochrane Library from their inception to August 2021 was performed, without any limitations, by two independent investigators. We considered eligible observational studies or randomized clinical trials (RCTs) that enrolled patients > 18 years old with heart failure (HF) of ischaemic or non-ischaemic aetiology and provided data about the association of baseline CMR variables with clinical or echocardiographic response to CRT for at least 3 months. This systematic review was performed in accordance with the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses (PRISMA Statement). Following our search strategy, 47 studies were finally included in our review. CMR appears to have an additive role in identifying the subgroup of patients who will respond better to CRT. Specifically, the presence and the extent of myocardial scar were associated with increased non-response rates, while those with no scar respond better. Furthermore, existing data show that scar location can be associated with CRT response rates. CMR-derived markers of mechanical desynchrony can also be used as predictors of CRT response. CMR data can be used to optimize the position of the left ventricular lead during the CRT implantation procedure. Specifically, positioning the left ventricular lead in a branch of the coronary sinus that feeds an area with transmural scar was associated with poorer response to CRT. CMR can be used as a non-invasive optimization tool to identify patients who are more likely to achieve better clinical and echocardiographic response following CRT implantation. [Abstract copyright: © 2022. The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Springer Science+Business Media, LLC, part of Springer Nature.

Clinical characteristics, genetic findings and arrhythmic outcomes of patients with catecholaminergic polymorphic ventricular tachycardia from China: A systematic review

Introduction: Catecholaminergic polymorphic ventricular tachycardia (CPVT) is a rare inherited cardiac ion channelopathy. The present study aims to examine the clinical characteristics, genetic basis, and arrhythmic outcomes of CPVT patients from China to elucidate the difference between CPVT patients in Asia and Western countries. Methods: PubMed and Embase were systematically searched for case reports or series reporting on CPVT patients from China until 19 February 2022 using the keyword: “Catecholaminergic Polymorphic Ventricular Tachycardia” or “CPVT”, with the location limited to: “China” or “Hong Kong” or “Macau” in Embase, with no language or publication-type restriction. Articles that did not state a definite diagnosis of CPVT and articles with duplicate cases found in larger cohorts were excluded. All the included publications in this review were critically appraised based on the Joanna Briggs Institute Critical Appraisal Checklist. Clinical characteristics, genetic findings, and the primary outcome of spontaneous ventricular tachycardia/ventricular fibrillation (VT/VF) were analyzed. Results: A total of 58 unique cases from 15 studies (median presentation age: 8 (5.0–11.8) years old) were included. All patients, except one, presented at or before 19 years of age. There were 56 patients (96.6%) who were initially symptomatic. Premature ventricular complexes (PVCs) were present in 44 out of 51 patients (86.3%) and VT in 52 out of 58 patients (89.7%). Genetic tests were performed on 54 patients (93.1%) with a yield of 87%. RyR2, CASQ2, TERCL, and SCN10A mutations were found in 35 (71.4%), 12 (24.5%), 1 (0.02%) patient, and 1 patient (0.02%), respectively. There were 54 patients who were treated with beta-blockers, 8 received flecainide, 5 received amiodarone, 2 received verapamil and 2 received propafenone. Sympathectomy (n = 10), implantable cardioverter-defibrillator implantation (n = 8) and ablation (n = 1) were performed. On follow-up, 13 patients developed VT/VF. Conclusion: This was the first systematic review of CPVT patients from China. Most patients had symptoms on initial presentation, with syncope as the presenting complaint. RyR2 mutation accounts for more than half of the CPVT cases, followed by CASQ2, TERCL and SCN10A mutations

The Combination of Hyperuricemia and Elevated High-Sensitivity C-Reactive Protein Increased the Risk of Cardiac Conduction Block

Na Li,1 Liufu Cui,1 Gary Tse,2,3 Panagiotis Korantzopoulos,4 Konstantinos P Letsas,5 George Bazoukis,6,7 Shuohua Chen,8 Nan Zhang,2 Xuemei Yang,9 Peipei Liu,10 Lili Wu,11 Gan-Xin Yan,12,13 Gregory Yoke Hong Lip,14,15 Shouling Wu,8 Tong Liu2 1Department of Rheumatology and Immunology, Kailuan General Hospital, Tangshan, Hebei Province, People’s Republic of China; 2Tianjin Key Laboratory of Ionic-Molecular Function of Cardiovascular Disease, Department of Cardiology, Tianjin Institute of Cardiology, Second Hospital of Tianjin Medical University, Tianjin, People’s Republic of China; 3School of Nursing and Health Studies, Hong Kong Metropolitan University, Hong Kong, People’s Republic of China; 4First Department of Cardiology, University of Ioannina Medical School, Ioannina, Greece; 5Arrhythmia Unit, Laboratory of Cardiac Pacing and Electrophysiology, Onassis Cardiac Surgery Center, Athens, Greece; 6Department of Cardiology, Larnaca General Hospital, Larnaca, Cyprus; 7European University Cyprus, Medical School, Nicosia, Cyprus; 8Department of Cardiology, Kailuan General Hospital, Tangshan, Hebei Province, People’s Republic of China; 9School of Clinical Medicine, North China University of Science and Technology, Tangshan, Hebei Province, People’s Republic of China; 10School of Public Health, North China University of Science and Technology, Tangshan, Hebei Province, People’s Republic of China; 11Department of Cardiology, Shanghai Songjiang District Central Hospital, Shanghai, People’s Republic of China; 12Lankenau Medical Center and Lankenau Institute for Medical Research, Wynnewood, PA, USA; 13Department of Cardiology, Fuwai Huazhong Hospital, Zhengzhou, Henan Province, People’s Republic of China; 14Liverpool Centre for Cardiovascular Sciences, University of Liverpool, Liverpool John Moores University and Liverpool Heart & Chest Hospital, Liverpool, UK; 15Danish Center for Clinical Health Services Research, Department of Clinical Medicine, Aalborg University, Aalborg, DenmarkCorrespondence: Tong Liu, Tianjin Key Laboratory of Ionic-Molecular Function of Cardiovascular Disease, Department of Cardiology, Tianjin Institute of Cardiology, Second Hospital of Tianjin Medical University, Tianjin, People’s Republic of China, Email [email protected]; [email protected] Shouling Wu, Department of Cardiology, Kailuan General Hospital, Tangshan, Hebei Province, People’s Republic of China, Email [email protected]: This study aimed to explore the impact of a combination of hyperuricemia (HUA) and excessive high-sensitivity C-reactive protein (hs-CRP) levels on the likelihood of developing cardiac conduction block (CCB). Additionally, it sought to assess whether the influence of uric acid (UA) on CCB is mediated by hs-CRP.Methods: A prospective study was executed utilizing data from the Kailuan cohort, including 81,896 individuals initially free from CCB. The participants were categorized into four groups depending on the existence of HUA and low-grade inflammation (hs-CRP> 3 mg/L). Cox regression analysis was employed to ascertain hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) for the risk of incident CCB. A mediation analysis was performed to determine if hs-CRP functioned as a mediator in the connection between UA levels and the incidence of CCB.Results: During a median observation period of 11.8 years, we identified 3160 cases of newly occurring CCB. Compared with the low UA/low CRP group, the combination of HUA and low-grade inflammation elevated the CCB risks (HR:1.56, 95% CI:1.22– 1.99), atrioventricular block (AVB) (HR:1.88, 95% CI:1.27– 2.77), and right bundle branch block (HR:1.47, 95% CI:1.02– 2.12), respectively. Mediation analysis revealed that in the HUA group, compared with the non-HUA group, the risk of CCB elevated by 14.0%, with 10.3% of the increase mediated through hs-CRP.Conclusion: HUA combined with elevated hs-CRP increased the risk of CCB, especially AVB. The connection between UA and the CCB risk was partly mediated by hs-CRP. Keywords: hyperuricemia, inflammation, cardiac conduction block, combined exposure, risk factors, mediatio

The impact of renal sympathetic denervation on cardiac electrophysiology and arrhythmias: A systematic review of the literature

Introduction Increased central sympathetic activity has a central role in the pathophysiology of cardiac arrhythmias. Despite the recently published negative results regarding the impact of renal sympathetic denervation (RDN) on resistant hypertension treatment, the beneficial effects of this intervention on cardiac arrhythmias seems to be promising. The aim of this systematic review is to analyze the existing data regarding the impact of RDN on atrial and ventricular arrhythmias. Methods We systematically searched MEDLINE/PubMed database until January 2016 by using the algorithm “renal denervation AND (arrhythmias OR atrial OR ventricular)” without limitations. Additionally, the reference lists of the included studies and the relevant review studies were also manually searched. Results Of the 467 studies yielded from the initial search, 34 were finally included in the systematic review (15 human studies, 18 animal studies and 1 study with both experimental and clinical data). The critical analysis of data from both human and animal studies indicates that RDN can modulate atrial and ventricular electrophysiological properties and exerts favorable effects in the development and recurrence of atrial and ventricular arrhythmias. Conclusion In this systematic review we showed that RDN reduces the burden of atrial and ventricular arrhythmias in various experimental and clinical settings. Appropriately designed randomized sham controlled trials are needed in order to elucidate the exact impact of RDN on arrhythmia management. © 201