Sexual violence in post-conflict Liberia: survivors and their care.

Using routine data from three clinics offering care to survivors of sexual violence (SV) in Monrovia, Liberia, we describe the characteristics of SV survivors and the pattern of SV and discuss how the current approach could be better adapted to meet survivors' needs. There were 1500 survivors seeking SV care between January 2008 and December 2009. Most survivors were women (98%) and median age was 13 years (Interquartile range: 9-17 years). Sexual aggression occurred during day-to-day activities in 822 (55%) cases and in the survivor's home in 552 (37%) cases. The perpetrator was a known civilian in 1037 (69%) SV events. Only 619 (41%) survivors sought care within 72 h. The current approach could be improved by: effectively addressing the psychosocial needs of child survivors, reaching male survivors, targeting the perpetrators in awareness and advocacy campaigns and reducing delays in seeking care

Retrospective Analysis of the 2014-2015 Ebola Epidemic in Liberia.

The 2014-2015 Ebola epidemic has been the most protracted and devastating in the history of the disease. To prevent future outbreaks on this scale, it is imperative to understand the reasons that led to eventual disease control. Here, we evaluated the shifts of Ebola dynamics at national and local scales during the epidemic in Liberia. We used a transmission model calibrated to epidemiological data between June 9 and December 31, 2014, to estimate the extent of community and hospital transmission. We found that despite varied local epidemic patterns, community transmission was reduced by 40-80% in all the counties analyzed. Our model suggests that the tapering of the epidemic was achieved through reductions in community transmission, rather than accumulation of immune individuals through asymptomatic infection and unreported cases. Although the times at which this transmission reduction occurred in the majority of the Liberian counties started before any large expansion in hospital capacity and the distribution of home protection kits, it remains difficult to associate the presence of interventions with reductions in Ebola incidence

Exposure Patterns Driving Ebola Transmission in West Africa:A Retrospective Observational Study

BackgroundThe ongoing West African Ebola epidemic began in December 2013 in Guinea, probably from a single zoonotic introduction. As a result of ineffective initial control efforts, an Ebola outbreak of unprecedented scale emerged. As of 4 May 2015, it had resulted in more than 19,000 probable and confirmed Ebola cases, mainly in Guinea (3,529), Liberia (5,343), and Sierra Leone (10,746). Here, we present analyses of data collected during the outbreak identifying drivers of transmission and highlighting areas where control could be improved.Methods and findingsOver 19,000 confirmed and probable Ebola cases were reported in West Africa by 4 May 2015. Individuals with confirmed or probable Ebola ("cases") were asked if they had exposure to other potential Ebola cases ("potential source contacts") in a funeral or non-funeral context prior to becoming ill. We performed retrospective analyses of a case line-list, collated from national databases of case investigation forms that have been reported to WHO. These analyses were initially performed to assist WHO's response during the epidemic, and have been updated for publication. We analysed data from 3,529 cases in Guinea, 5,343 in Liberia, and 10,746 in Sierra Leone; exposures were reported by 33% of cases. The proportion of cases reporting a funeral exposure decreased over time. We found a positive correlation (r = 0.35, p ConclusionsAchieving elimination of Ebola is challenging, partly because of super-spreading. Safe funeral practices and fast hospitalisation contributed to the containment of this Ebola epidemic. Continued real-time data capture, reporting, and analysis are vital to track transmission patterns, inform resource deployment, and thus hasten and maintain elimination of the virus from the human population

Dynamics and control of Ebola virus transmission in Montserrado, Liberia: a mathematical modelling analysis

BackgroundA substantial scale-up in public health response is needed to control the unprecedented Ebola virus disease (EVD) epidemic in west Africa. Current international commitments seek to expand intervention capacity in three areas: new EVD treatment centres, case ascertainment through contact tracing, and household protective kit allocation. We aimed to assess how these interventions could be applied individually and in combination to avert future EVD cases and deaths.MethodsWe developed a transmission model of Ebola virus that we fitted to reported EVD cases and deaths in Montserrado County, Liberia. We used this model to assess the effectiveness of expanding EVD treatment centres, increasing case ascertainment, and allocating protective kits for controlling the outbreak in Montserrado. We varied the efficacy of protective kits from 10% to 50%. We compared intervention initiation on Oct 15, 2014, Oct 31, 2014, and Nov 15, 2014. The status quo intervention was defined in terms of case ascertainment and capacity of EVD treatment centres on Sept 23, 2014, and all behaviour and contact patterns relevant to transmission as they were occurring at that time. The primary outcome measure was the expected number of cases averted by Dec 15, 2014.FindingsWe estimated the basic reproductive number for EVD in Montserrado to be 2·49 (95% CI 2·38-2·60). We expect that allocating 4800 additional beds at EVD treatment centres and increasing case ascertainment five-fold in November, 2014, can avert 77 312 (95% CI 68 400-85 870) cases of EVD relative to the status quo by Dec 15, 2014. Complementing these measures with protective kit allocation raises the expectation as high as 97 940 (90 096-105 606) EVD cases. If deployed by Oct 15, 2014, equivalent interventions would have been expected to avert 137 432 (129 736-145 874) cases of EVD. If delayed to Nov 15, 2014, we expect the interventions will at best avert 53 957 (46 963-60 490) EVD cases.InterpretationThe number of beds at EVD treatment centres needed to effectively control EVD in Montserrado substantially exceeds the 1700 pledged by the USA to west Africa. Accelerated case ascertainment is needed to maximise effectiveness of expanding the capacity of EVD treatment centres. Distributing protective kits can further augment prevention of EVD, but it is not an adequate stand-alone measure for controlling the outbreak. Our findings highlight the rapidly closing window of opportunity for controlling the outbreak and averting a catastrophic toll of EVD cases and deaths.FundingUS National Institutes of Health

Mortality, Morbidity and Health-Seeking Behaviour during the Ebola Epidemic 2014-2015 in Monrovia Results from a Mobile Phone Survey

Between March 2014 and July 2015 at least 10,500 Ebola cases including more than 4,800 deaths occurred in Liberia, the majority in Monrovia. However, official numbers may have underestimated the size of the outbreak. Closure of health facilities and mistrust in existing structures may have additionally impacted on all-cause morbidity and mortality. To quantify mortality and morbidity and describe health-seeking behaviour in Monrovia, Médecins sans Frontières (MSF) conducted a mobile phone survey from December 2014 to March 2015. We drew a random sample of households in Monrovia and conducted structured mobile phone interviews, covering morbidity, mortality and health-seeking behaviour from 14 May 2014 until the day of the survey. We defined an Ebola-related death as any death meeting the Liberian Ebola case definition. We calculated all-cause and Ebola-specific mortality rates. The sample consisted of 6,813 household members in 905 households. We estimated a crude mortality rate (CMR) of 0.33/10,000 persons/day (95%CI:0.25-0.43) and an Ebola-specific mortality rate of 0.06/10,000 persons/day (95%-CI:0.03-0.11). During the recall period, 17 Ebola cases were reported including those who died. In the 30 days prior to the survey 277 household members were reported sick; malaria accounted for 54% (150/277). Of the sick household members, 43% (122/276) did not visit any health care facility. The mobile phone-based survey was found to be a feasible and acceptable alternative method when data collection in the community is impossible. CMR was estimated well below the emergency threshold of 1/10,000 persons/day. Non-Ebola-related mortality in Monrovia was not higher than previous national estimates of mortality for Liberia. However, excess mortality directly resulting from Ebola did occur in the population. Importantly, the small proportion of sick household members presenting to official health facilities when sick might pose a challenge for future outbreak detection and mitigation. Substantial reported health-seeking behaviour outside of health facilities may also suggest the need for adapted health messaging and improved access to health care