Impacts of climate change on high priority fruit fly species in Australia

Tephritid fruit flies are among the most destructive horticultural pests posing risks to Australia’s multi-billion-dollar horticulture industry. Currently, there are 11 pest fruit fly species of economic concern in Australia. Of these, nine are native to this continent (Bactrocera aquilonis, B. bryoniae, B. halfordiae, B. jarvisi, B. kraussi, B. musae, B. neohumeralis, B. tryoni and Zeugodacus cucumis), while B. frauenfeldi and Ceratitis capitata are introduced. To varying degrees these species are costly to Australia’s horticulture through in-farm management, monitoring to demonstrate pest freedom, quarantine and trade restrictions, and crop losses. Here, we used a common species distribution model, Maxent, to assess climate suitability for these 11 species under baseline (1960–1990) and future climate scenarios for Australia. Projections indicate that the Wet Tropics is likely to be vulnerable to all 11 species until at least 2070, with the east coast of Australia also likely to remain vulnerable to multiple species. While the Cape York Peninsula and Northern Territory are projected to have suitable climate for numerous species, extrapolation to novel climates in these areas decreases confidence in model projections. The climate suitability of major horticulture areas currently in eastern Queensland, southern-central New South Wales and southern Victoria to these pests may increase as climate changes. By highlighting areas at risk of pest range expansion in the future our study may guide Australia’s horticulture industry in developing effective monitoring and management strategies

Public opinion and environmental policy output: a cross-national analysis of energy policies in Europe

This article studies how public opinion is associated with the introduction of renewable energy policies in Europe. While research increasingly seeks to model the link between public opinion and environmental policies, the empirical evidence is largely based on a single case: the US. This limits the generalizability of findings and we argue accordingly for a systematic, quantitative study of how public opinion drives environmental policies in another context. Theoretically, we combine arguments behind the political survival of democratic leaders with electoral success and environmental politics. Ultimately, we suggest that office-seeking leaders introduce policies that seem favorable to the domestic audience; if the public prefers environmental protection, the government introduces such policies in turn. The main contribution of this research is the cross-country empirical analysis, where we combine data on the public's environmental attitudes and renewable energy policy outputs in a European context between 1974 and 2015. We show that as public opinion shifts towards prioritizing the environment, there is a significant and positive effect on the rate of renewable energy policy outputs by governments in Europe. To our knowledge, this is the first systematic, quantitative study of public opinion and environmental policies across a large set of countries, and we demonstrate that the mechanisms behind the introduction of renewable energy policies follow major trends across European states

ENMTools 1.0: an R package for comparative ecological biogeography

The ENMTools software package was introduced in 2008 as a platform for making measurements on environmental niche models (ENMs, frequently referred to as species distribution models or SDMs), and for using those measurements in the context of newly developed Monte Carlo tests to evaluate hypotheses regarding niche evolution. Additional functionality was later added for model selection and simulation from ENMs, and the software package has been quite widely used. ENMTools was initially implemented as a Perl script, which was also compiled into an executable file for various platforms. However, the package had a number of significant limitations; it was only designed to fit models using Maxent, it relied on a specific Perl distribution to function, and its internal structure made it difficult to maintain and expand. Subsequently, the R programming language became the platform of choice for most ENM studies, making ENMTools less usable for many practitioners. Here we introduce a new R version of ENMTools that implements much of the functionality of its predecessor as well as numerous additions that simplify the construction, comparison and evaluation of niche models. These additions include new metrics for model fit, methods of measuring ENM overlap, and methods for testing evolutionary hypotheses. The new version of ENMTools is also designed to work within the expanding universe of R tools for ecological biogeography, and as such includes greatly simplified interfaces for analyses from several other R packages

Lean mass, muscle strength, and physical function in a diverse population of men: a population-based cross-sectional study

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Age-related declines in lean body mass appear to be more rapid in men than in women but our understanding of muscle mass and function among different subgroups of men and their changes with age is quite limited. The objective of this analysis is to examine racial/ethnic differences and racial/ethnic group-specific cross-sectional age differences in measures of muscle mass, muscle strength, and physical function among men.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>Data were obtained from the Boston Area Community Health/Bone (BACH/Bone) Survey, a population-based, cross-sectional, observational survey. Subjects included 1,157 black, Hispanic, and white randomly-selected Boston men ages 30-79 y. Lean mass was assessed by dual-energy x-ray absorptiometry. Upper extremity (grip) strength was assessed with a hand dynamometer and lower extremity physical function was derived from walk and chair stand tests. Upper extremity strength and lower extremity physical function were also indexed by lean mass and lean mass was indexed by the square of height.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Mean age of the sample was 47.5 y. Substantial cross-sectional age differences in grip strength and physical function were consistent across race/ethnicity. Racial/ethnic differences, with and without adjustment for covariates, were evident in all outcomes except grip strength. Racial differences in lean mass did not translate into parallel differences in physical function. For instance, multivariate modeling (with adjustments for age, height, fat mass, self-rated health and physical activity) indicated that whereas total body lean mass was 2.43 kg (approximately 5%) higher in black compared with white men, black men had a physical function score that was approximately 20% lower than white men.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>In spite of lower levels of lean mass, the higher levels of physical function observed among white compared with non-white men in this study appear to be broadly consistent with known racial/ethnic differences in outcomes.</p

Why do authoritarian regimes provide public goods? Policy communities, external shocks and ideas in China’s rural social policy making

Recent research on authoritarian regimes argues that they provide public goods in order to prevent rebellion. This essay shows that the ‘threat of rebellion’ alone cannot explain Chinese party-state policies to extend public goods to rural residents in the first decade of the twenty-first century. Drawing on theories of policy making, it argues that China’s one-party regime extended public goods to the rural population under the influence of ideas and policy options generated by policy communities of officials, researchers, international organisations and other actors. The party-state centre adopted and implemented these ideas and policy options when they provided solutions to external shocks and supported economic development goals. Explanations of policies and their outcomes in authoritarian political systems need to include not only ‘dictators’ but also other actors, and the ideas they generate

Persistent near real-time passive acoustic monitoring for baleen whales from a moored buoy: System description and evaluation

© The Author(s), 2019. This article is distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License. The definitive version was published in Baumgartner, M. F., Bonnell, J., Van Parijs, S. M., Corkeron, P. J., Hotchkin, C., Ball, K., Pelletier, L., Partan, J., Peters, D., Kemp, J., Pietro, J., Newhall, K., Stokes, A., Cole, T. V. N., Quintana, E., & Kraus, S. D. Persistent near real-time passive acoustic monitoring for baleen whales from a moored buoy: System description and evaluation. Methods in Ecology and Evolution, 10(9), (2019): 1476-1489, doi: 10.1111/2041-210X.13244.1. Managing interactions between human activities and marine mammals often relies on an understanding of the real‐time distribution or occurrence of animals. Visual surveys typically cannot provide persistent monitoring because of expense and weather limitations, and while passive acoustic recorders can monitor continuously, the data they collect are often not accessible until the recorder is recovered. 2. We have developed a moored passive acoustic monitoring system that provides near real‐time occurrence estimates for humpback, sei, fin and North Atlantic right whales from a single site for a year, and makes those occurrence estimates available via a publicly accessible website, email and text messages, a smartphone/tablet app and the U.S. Coast Guard's maritime domain awareness software. We evaluated this system using a buoy deployed off the coast of Massachusetts during 2015–2016 and redeployed again during 2016–2017. Near real‐time estimates of whale occurrence were compared to simultaneously collected archived audio as well as whale sightings collected near the buoy by aerial surveys. 3. False detection rates for right, humpback and sei whales were 0% and nearly 0% for fin whales, whereas missed detection rates at daily time scales were modest (12%–42%). Missed detections were significantly associated with low calling rates for all species. We observed strong associations between right whale visual sightings and near real‐time acoustic detections over a monitoring range 30–40 km and temporal scales of 24–48 hr, suggesting that silent animals were not especially problematic for estimating occurrence of right whales in the study area. There was no association between acoustic detections and visual sightings of humpback whales. 4. The moored buoy has been used to reduce the risk of ship strikes for right whales in a U.S. Coast Guard gunnery range, and can be applied to other mitigation applications.We thank Annamaria Izzi, Danielle Cholewiak and Genevieve Davis of the NOAA NEFSC for assistance in developing the analyst protocol. We are grateful to the NOAA NEFSC aerial survey observers (Leah Crowe, Pete Duley, Jen Gatzke, Allison Henry, Christin Khan and Karen Vale) and the NEAq aerial survey observers (Angela Bostwick, Marianna Hagbloom and Paul Nagelkirk). Danielle Cholewiak and three anonymous reviewers provided constructive criticism on earlier drafts of the manuscript. Funding for this project was provided by the NOAA NEFSC, NOAA Advanced Sampling Technology Work Group, Environmental Security Technology Certification Program of the U.S. Department of Defense, the U.S. Navy's Living Marine Resources Program, Massachusetts Clean Energy Center and the Bureau of Ocean Energy Management. Funding from NOAA was facilitated by the Cooperative Institute for the North Atlantic Region (CINAR) under Cooperative Agreement NA14OAR4320158

'Public administration in an age of austerity' : Positive lessons from policy studies

Peer reviewedPostprin

The Critical Juncture Concept’s Evolving Capacity to Explain Policy Change

This article examines the evolution of our understanding of the critical junctures concept. The concept finds its origins in historical intuitionalism, being employed in the context of path dependence to account for sudden and jarring institutional or policy changes. We argue that the concept and the literature surrounding it—now incorporating ideas, discourse, and agency—have gradually become more comprehensive and nuanced as historical institutionalism was followed by ideational historical institutionalism and constructivist and discursive institutionalism. The prime position of contingency has been supplanted by the role of ideas and agency in explaining critical junctures and other instances of less than transformative change. Consequently, the concept is now capable of providing more comprehensive explanations for policy change

Epilepsy due to PNPO mutations: genotype, environment and treatment affect presentation and outcome

Mutations in PNPO are a known cause of neonatal onset seizures that are resistant to pyridoxine but responsive to pyridoxal phosphate (PLP). Mills etal. show that PNPO mutations can also cause neonatal onset seizures that respond to pyridoxine but worsen with PLP, as well as PLP-responsive infantile spasm