Bayesian Inference of the Multi-Period Optimal Portfolio for an Exponential Utility

We consider the estimation of the multi-period optimal portfolio obtained by maximizing an exponential utility. Employing Jeffreys' non-informative prior and the conjugate informative prior, we derive stochastic representations for the optimal portfolio weights at each time point of portfolio reallocation. This provides a direct access not only to the posterior distribution of the portfolio weights but also to their point estimates together with uncertainties and their asymptotic distributions. Furthermore, we present the posterior predictive distribution for the investor's wealth at each time point of the investment period in terms of a stochastic representation for the future wealth realization. This in turn makes it possible to use quantile-based risk measures or to calculate the probability of default. We apply the suggested Bayesian approach to assess the uncertainty in the multi-period optimal portfolio by considering assets from the FTSE 100 in the weeks after the British referendum to leave the European Union. The behaviour of the novel portfolio estimation method in a precarious market situation is illustrated by calculating the predictive wealth, the risk associated with the holding portfolio, and the default probability in each period.Comment: 38 pages, 5 figure

Landscape and scale in media representations: the construction of offshore farm labour in Ontario, Canada

Thousands of migrant workers travel from Mexico and the Caribbean to Ontario every year to assist Canadian farmers in their horticulture operations. These migrants have become a structural necessity to the industry, ensuring growth and profits. I propose that exploitative and coercive labour practices are legitimated and sustained through cultural representations which identify migrants not only as outsiders to the community and a cultural threat, but also as economic assets and subordinate labour. A content analysis of the Ontario daily newsprint media between 1996 and 2002 reveals that the construction of offshore workers relies on coexisting dualisms created on different geographical scales. These dualisms work in tandem to produce a powerful and pervasive discourse of subordination

Chapter 5 Urban Migrant and Refugee Solidarity

Urban and local communities around the world are practising migrant and refugee solidarity. This chapter first identifies several dimensions that define a common urban solidary approach: legal, discursive, identity-formative, and scalar dimensions. Second, the chapter examines cities around the world where these dimensions can be observed although various labels are used to describe urban solidarity approaches. In Canada, the USA, and the UK, the label “sanctuary city” is often used; in Spain, Barcelona calls itself a “city of refuge,” and municipalities in Chile refer to themselves as “commune of reception” or “inclusive community.” Dimensions of urban solidarity approaches can also be observed in parts of Africa and Asia. By focussing on different continents and diverse geopolitical contexts, the chapter illustrates the complexity in the way in which urban migrant and refugee solidarity is understood and practiced

POPULATION VIABILITY AND CONNECTIVITY OF THE FEDERALLY THREATENED EASTERN INDIGO SNAKE IN CENTRAL PENINSULAR FLORIDA

Understanding the factors influencing the likelihood of persistence of real-world populations requires both an accurate understanding of the traits and behaviors of individuals within those populations (e.g., movement, habitat selection, survival, fecundity, dispersal) but also an understanding of how those traits and behaviors are influenced by landscape features. The federally threatened eastern indigo snake (EIS, Drymarchon couperi) has declined throughout its range primarily due to anthropogenically-induced habitat loss and fragmentation making spatially-explicit assessments of population viability and connectivity essential for understanding its current status and directing future conservation efforts. The primary goal of my dissertation was to understand how landscape features influence EIS population viability and connectivity in central peninsular Florida. I accomplished this through four components. First, I evaluated EIS movement patterns and space use including daily movement distance, home range size, within-individual home range overlap, and among-individual home range overlap and how these patterns varied by sex and season. Second, I conducted a multi-level, multi-scale habitat selection analysis to create spatially-explicit estimates of EIS habitat selection. Third, using the aforementioned data and previously published data, I developed an agent-based model for simulating EIS movement, survival, reproduction, and dispersal in central Florida. I used this model to determine how landscape features and conservation lands influence EIS occupancy across our study landscape. Finally, I used landscape genetics to determine how landscape features influenced genetic connectivity and to estimate resistance surfaces with which to model potential corridors. I found that male EIS maintain larger home ranges than females and move extensively during the breeding season in search of females. While seasonal home ranges within an individual strongly overlapped, individuals avoided home ranges of same-sex conspecifics. EIS selected home ranges and within-home range locations in areas of undeveloped upland habitat with high habitat heterogeneity and generally avoided urban. While EIS did not avoid roads, they rarely crossed primary and secondary roads. I used observed patterns of movement and habitat selection to calibrate my ABM. My ABM simulated larger male home ranges and smaller home ranges and lower survival in urbanized landscapes although simulated effect sizes were weaker than observed effect sizes. My model was unable to simulate observed patterns of within-individual home range overlap but accurately simulated survival in developed and undeveloped landscapes. EIS occupancy after a 15 year simulation was 56% and occupancy was most strongly affected, negatively, by urbanization. While the presence of conservation lands was not a strong driver of EIS occupancy, EIS occupancy was more consistently higher on conservation lands. EIS gene flow was most strongly associated with undeveloped uplands, urbanization, and habitat edge at the broadest scales we evaluated. Potential corridors were widespread in the southern half of our study area with substantial areas of potential habitat and corridor occurring outside of the existing conservation network. This work indicates that the LWR contains extensive areas capable of supporting EIS although increasing urbanization may have a negative impact on future persistence of EIS

Labour market marginalisation of young Latinos in San Antonio, Texas: A geographical perspective of neighbourhood processes

Latinos cluster in the lower segments of the U. S. labour market and therefore suffer disproportionately from labour market marginalisation and poverty. This dissertation examines supply side forces of the ethnic division of labour. Expanding upon structuration theory and realism, the research investigates the role of place in shaping career decisions of Latino youth. A case study of greater San Antonio, Texas, uses quantitative analysis of U. S. Census data to examine the patterns of youth labour market marginalisation in census tracts. In addition, qualitative in-depth interview analysis was conducted with twenty-nine youth and seventeen community-based institutions in two selected neighbourhoods. The results indicate that place is a mechanism engaged in the social construction of labour market marginality. Geographically narrow activity pattems and spatial isolation expose youth to place-based processes of labour market marginalisation and allow them to be stereotyped according to where they live. Cultural exclusion and discrimination are at the heart of the problem of youth labour market marginalisation. The results stand in sharp contrast with contemporary research, associated with the underclass debate, that provides the basis for public policy making