Treatment effect estimation with covariate measurement error

This paper investigates the effect that covariate measurement error has on a conventional treatment effect analysis built on an unconfoundedness restriction that embodies conditional independence restrictions in which there is conditioning on error free covariates. The approach uses small parameter asymptotic methods to obtain the approximate generic effects of measurement error. The approximations can be estimated using data on observed outcomes, the treatment indicator and error contaminated covariates providing an indication of the nature and size of measurement error effects. The approximations can be used in a sensitivity analysis to probe the potential effects of measurement error on the evaluation of treatment effects

What really happened to consumption inequality in the US?

This paper considers data quality issues for the analysis of consumption inequality exploiting two complementary datasets from the Consumer Expenditure Survey for the United States. The Interview sample follows survey households over four calendar quarters and consists of retrospectively collected information about monthly expenditures on durable and non-durable goods. The Diary sample interviews household for two consecutive weeks and includes detailed information about frequently purchased items (food, personal cares and household supplies). Most reliable information from each sample is exploited to derive a correction for the measurement error affecting observed measures of consumption inequality in the two surveys. We find that consumption inequality, as measured by the standard deviation of log non-durable consumption, has increased by roughly 5% points during the 1990s

Food and cash transfers: evidence from Colombia

We study food Engel curves among the poor population targeted by a conditional cash transfer programme in Colombia. After controlling for the endogeneity of total expenditure and for the (unobserved) variability of prices across villages, the best fit is provided by a log-linear specification. Our estimates imply that an increase in total expenditure by 10% would lead to a decrease of 1% in the share of food. However, quasi-experimental estimates of the impact of the programme on total and food consumption show that the share of food increases, suggesting that the programme has more complex impacts than increasing household income. In particular, our results are not inconsistent with the hypothesis that the programme, targeted to women, could increase their bargaining power and induce a more than proportional increase in food consumption

Why is consumption more log normal than income? Gibrat’s Law revisited

Significant departures from log normality are observed in income data, in violation of Gibrat’s law. We identify a new empirical regularity, which is that the distribution of consumption expenditures across households is, within cohorts, closer to log normal than the distribution of income. We explain these empirical results by showing that the logic of Gibrat’s law applies not to total income, but to permanent income and to maginal utility. These findings have important implications for welfare and inequality measurement, aggregation, and econometric model analysis

How effective are conditional cash transfers? Evidence from Colombia

Conditional cash transfer (CCT) programmes are becoming an extremely popular tool for improving the education and health outcomes of poor children in developing countries. An incomplete list of countries in which they are being implemented under the support of the World Bank and other international financial institutions includes Mexico, Honduras, Nicaragua, Brazil, Turkey and Mozambique. While the implementation details vary from country to country, many are modelled on the Mexican PROGRESA. In a typical CCT, mothers from poor backgrounds receive cash conditional on their promoting certain activities on behalf of their children. For their youngest children - usually those below the age of 6 - the conditionality involves visits to preventive healthcare centres in which their growth is monitored. School attendance is the most common stipulation for receipt of cash transfers for older children - usually those between 7 and 17 years old. This targeting of health and education of children is at the essence of the long-term poverty alleviation objective of CCT programmes. Such transfer programmes are also aimed at the short-term reduction of poverty, through the provision of immediate funds to indigent households. In this Briefing Note, we will focus on the programme Familias en Acción (FA), the CCT implemented by the Colombian government from 2001/02. In particular, we will provide estimates of how the programme has influenced key welfare indicators such as school attendance, child nutrition and health status, as well as household consumption. In this respect, we will update the preliminary results that were reported in Attanasio et al. (2003 and 2004)

Entoloma sericeum f. palladum f. nov., una nueva forma de Entoloma

Entoloma sericeum f. pallidum f. nov. The macro- and microscopical features of a new form of Entoloma sericeum are described. A latin diagnosis related to the new taxon along with colour photographs of the basidiomata are provided. A statistical analysis of a sample of sixty spores and short considerations regarding some similar taxa are carried out.Entoloma sericeum f. pallidum f. nov., una nueva forma de Entoloma. Se describen las características macro y microscópicas de una nueva forma de Entoloma sericeum, asì como se aportan fotografías de los ejemplares en su hábitat junto al diagnóstico del taxon. Un análisis estadístico de la muestra de sesenta esporas es efectuada junto a algunas consideraciones sobre algunas taxa próxima

More choice for men? Marriage patterns after World War II in Italy

We investigate how changes in the sex ratio induced by World War II affected the bargaining patterns of Italian men in the marriage market. Marriage data from the first wave of the Italian Household Longitudinal Survey (1997) are matched with newly digitized information on war casualties coming from the Italian National Bureau of Statistics. We find that men in post-war marriages were better off in terms of their spouse's education, this gain amounting to about half a year of schooling. By considering heterogeneity across provinces, we find that the effects were more pronounced in rural provinces, mountainous provinces, and provinces with a higher share of population employed in agriculture. This result suggests that in these provinces the war caused a more fundamental change in marriage patterns compared to urban, lower-lying, and less agricultural provinces where marriage markets might have been more flexible to begin with

The evaluation of Education Maintenance Allowance Pilots: three years' evidence: a quantitative evaluation

This is the third report of the longitudinal quantitative evaluation of Education Maintenance Allowance (EMA) pilots and the first since the government announced that EMA is to be rolled out nationally from 2004. The evaluation was commissioned in 1999, by the Department for Education and Skills (DfES) from a consortium of research organisations, led by the Centre for Research in Social Policy (CRSP) and including the National Centre for Social Research, the Institute for Fiscal Studies (IFS) and the National Institute for Careers Education and Counselling (NICEC). The statistical evaluation design is a longitudinal cohort study involving large random sample surveys of young people (and their parents) in 10 EMA pilot areas and eleven control areas. Two cohorts of young people were selected from Child Benefit records. The first cohort of young people left compulsory schooling in the summer of 1999 and they, and their parents, were interviewed between October 1999 and April 2000 (Year 12 interview). A second interview was carried out with these young people between October 2000 and April 2001 (Year 13 interview). The second cohort left compulsory education the following summer of 2000 and young people, and their parents, were first interviewed between October 2000 and April 2001. The report uses both propensity score matching (PSM) and descriptive techniques, each of which brings their own particular strengths to the analysis

Treatment effect estimation with covariate measurement error

This paper investigates the effect that covariate measurement error has on a conventional treatment effect analysis built on an unconfoundedness restriction that embodies conditional independence restrictions in which there is conditioning on error free covariates. The approach uses small parameter asymptotic methods to obtain the approximate generic effects of measurement error. The approximations can be estimated using data on observed outcomes, the treatment indicator and error contaminated covariates providing an indication of the nature and size of measurement error effects. The approximations can be used in a sensitivity analysis to probe the potential effects of measurement error on the evaluation of treatment effects