A Power-Enhanced Algorithm for Spatial Anomaly Detection in Binary Labelled Point Data Using the Spatial Scan Statistic [postprint]

This paper presents a novel modification to an existing algorithm for spatial anomaly detection in binary labeled point data sets, using the Bernoulli version of the Spatial Scan Statistic. We identify a potential ambiguity in p-values produced by Monte Carlo testing, which (by the selection of the most conservative p-value) can lead to sub-optimal power. When such ambiguity occurs, the modification uses a very inexpensive secondary test to suggest a less conservative p-value. Using benchmark tests, we show that this appears to restore power to the expected level, whilst having similarly retest variance to the original. The modification also appears to produce a small but significant improvement in overall detection performance when multiple anomalies are present

A spatial accuracy assessment of an alternative circular scan method for Kulldorff's spatial scan statistic

This paper concerns the Bernoulli version of Kulldorff’s spatial scan statistic, and how accurately it identifies the exact centre of approximately circular regions of increased spatial density in point data. We present an alternative method of selecting circular regions that appears to give greater accuracy. Performance is tested in an epidemiological context using manifold synthetic case-control datasets. A small, but statistically significant, improvement is reported. The power of the alternative method is yet to be assessed

A pilot inference study for a beta-Bernoulli spatial scan statistic

The Bernoulli spatial scan statistic is used to detect localised clusters in binary labelled point data, such as that used in spatial or spatio-temporal case/control studies. We test the inferential capability of a recently developed beta-Bernoulli spatial scan statistic, which adds a beta prior to the original statistic. This pilot study, which includes two test scenarios with 6,000 data sets each, suggests a marked increase in power for a given false alert rate. We suggest a more extensive study would be worthwhile to corroborate the findings. We also speculate on an explanation for the observed improvement

A graph-theory method for pattern identification in geographical epidemiology - a preliminary application to deprivation and mortality

Background: Graph theoretical methods are extensively used in the field of computational chemistry to search datasets of compounds to see if they contain particular molecular substructures or patterns. We describe a preliminary application of a graph theoretical method, developed in computational chemistry, to geographical epidemiology in relation to testing a prior hypothesis. We tested the methodology on the hypothesis that if a socioeconomically deprived neighbourhood is situated in a wider deprived area, then that neighbourhood would experience greater adverse effects on mortality compared with a similarly deprived neighbourhood which is situated in a wider area with generally less deprivation. Methods: We used the Trent Region Health Authority area for this study, which contained 10,665 census enumeration districts (CED). Graphs are mathematical representations of objects and their relationships and within the context of this study, nodes represented CEDs and edges were determined by whether or not CEDs were neighbours (shared a common boundary). The overall area in this study was represented by one large graph comprising all CEDs in the region, along with their adjacency information. We used mortality data from 1988-1998, CED level population estimates and the Townsend Material Deprivation Index as an indicator of neighbourhood level deprivation. We defined deprived CEDs as those in the top 20% most deprived in the Region. We then set out to classify these deprived CEDs into seven groups defined by increasing deprivation levels in the neighbouring CEDs. 506 (24.2%) of the deprived CEDs had five adjacent CEDs and we limited pattern development and searching to these CEDs. We developed seven query patterns and used the RASCAL (Rapid Similarity Calculator) program to carry out the search for each of the query patterns. This program used a maximum common subgraph isomorphism method which was modified to handle geographical data. Results: Of the 506 deprived CEDs, 10 were not identified as belonging to any of the seven groups because they were adjacent to a CED with a missing deprivation category quintile, and none fell within query Group 1 (a deprived CED for which all five adjacent CEDs were affluent). Only four CEDs fell within Group 2, which was defined as having four affluent adjacent CEDs and one non-affluent adjacent CED. The numbers of CEDs in Groups 3-7 were 17, 214, 95, 81 and 85 respectively. Age and sex adjusted mortality rate ratios showed a non-significant trend towards increasing mortality risk across Groups (Chi-square = 3.26, df = 1, p = 0.07). Conclusion: Graph theoretical methods developed in computational chemistry may be a useful addition to the current GIS based methods available for geographical epidemiology but further developmental work is required. An important requirement will be the development of methods for specifying multiple complex search patterns. Further work is also required to examine the utility of using distance, as opposed to adjacency, to describe edges in graphs, and to examine methods for pattern specification when the nodes have multiple attributes attached to them

Effect of type of otolith and preparation technique on age estimation of larval and juvenile spot (Leiostomus xanthurus)

Otoliths of larval and juvenile fish provide a record of age, size, growth, and development (Campana and Neilson, 1985; Thorrold and Hare, 2002). However, determining the time of first increment formation in otoliths (Campana, 2001) and assessing the accuracy (deviation from real age) and precision (repeatability of increment counts from the same otolith) of increment counts are prerequisites for using otoliths to study the life history of fish (Campana and Moksness, 1991). For most fish species, first increment deposition occurs either at hatching, a day after hatching, or after first feeding and yolksac absorption (Jones, 1986; Thorrold and Hare, 2002). Increment deposition before hatching also occurs (Barkmann and Beck, 1976; Radtke and Dean, 1982). If first increment deposition does not occur at hatching, the standard procedure is to add a predetermined number to increment counts to estimate fish age (Campana and Neilson, 1985)

Individual patient data meta-analysis of randomized controlled trials of community occupational therapy for stroke patients

<p><b>Background and Purpose:</b> Trials of occupational therapy for stroke patients living in the community have varied in their findings. It is unclear why these discrepancies have occurred.</p> <p><b>Methods:</b> Trials were identified from searches of the Cochrane Library and other sources. The primary outcome measure was the Nottingham Extended Activities of Daily Living (NEADL) score at the end of intervention. Secondary outcome measures included the Barthel Index or the Rivermead ADL (Personal ADL), General Health Questionnaire (GHQ), Nottingham Leisure Questionnaire (NLQ), and death. Data were analyzed using linear or logistic regression with a random effect for trial and adjustment for age, gender, baseline dependency, and method of follow-up. Subgroup analyses compared any occupational therapy intervention with control.</p> <p><b>Results:</b> We included 8 single-blind randomized controlled trials incorporating 1143 patients. Occupational therapy was associated with higher NEADL scores at the end of intervention (weighted mean difference [WMD], 1.30 points, 95% confidence intervals [CI], 0.47 to 2.13) and higher leisure scores at the end of intervention (WMD, 1.51 points; 95% CI, 0.24 to 2.79). Occupational therapy emphasizing activities of daily living (ADL) was associated with improved end of intervention NEADL (WMD, 1.61 points; 95% CI, 0.72 to 2.49) and personal activities of daily living (odds ratio [OR], 0.65; 95% CI, 0.46 to 0.91), but not NLQ. Leisure-based occupational therapy improved end of intervention NLQ (WMD, 1.96 points; 95% CI, 0.27 to 3.66) but not NEADL or PADL.</p> <p><b>Conclusions:</b> Community occupational therapy significantly improved personal and extended activities of daily living and leisure activity in patients with stroke. Better outcomes were found with targeted interventions.</p&gt

Dipyridamole plus aspirin versus aspirin alone in the secondary prevention after TIA or stroke: a meta-analysis by risk

Objectives: Our aim was to study the effect of combination therapy with aspirin and dipyridamole (A+D) over aspirin alone (ASA) in secondary prevention after transient ischemic attack or minor stroke of presumed arterial origin and to perform subgroup analyses to identify patients that might benefit most from secondary prevention with A+D. Data sources: The previously published meta-analysis of individual patient data was updated with data from ESPRIT (N=2,739); trials without data on the comparison of A+D versus ASA were excluded. Review methods: A meta-analysis was performed using Cox regression, including several subgroup analyses and following baseline risk stratification. Results: A total of 7,612 patients (5 trials) were included in the analyses, 3,800 allocated to A+D and 3,812 to ASA alone. The trial-adjusted hazard ratio for the composite event of vascular death, non-fatal myocardial infarction and non-fatal stroke was 0.82 (95% confidence interval 0.72-0.92). Hazard ratios did not differ in subgroup analyses based on age, sex, qualifying event, hypertension, diabetes, previous stroke, ischemic heart disease, aspirin dose, type of vessel disease and dipyridamole formulation, nor across baseline risk strata as assessed with two different risk scores. A+D were also more effective than ASA alone in preventing recurrent stroke, HR 0.78 (95% CI 0.68 – 0.90). Conclusion: The combination of aspirin and dipyridamole is more effective than aspirin alone in patients with TIA or ischemic stroke of presumed arterial origin in the secondary prevention of stroke and other vascular events. This superiority was found in all subgroups and was independent of baseline risk. ---------------------------7dc3521430776 Content-Disposition: form-data; name="c14_creators_1_name_family" Halke

Blood pressure management in acute stroke

Blood pressure (BP) is elevated in 75% or more of patients with acute stroke and is associated with poor outcomes. Whether to modulate BP in acute stroke has long been debated. With the loss of normal cerebral autoregulation, theoretical concerns are twofold: high BP can lead to cerebral oedema, haematoma expansion or haemorrhagic transformation; and low BP can lead to increased cerebral infarction or perihaematomal ischaemia. Published evidence from multiple large, high-quality, randomised trials is increasing our understanding of this challenging area, such that BP lowering is recommended in acute intracerebral haemorrhage and is safe in ischaemic stroke. Here we review the evidence for BP modulation in acute stroke, discuss the issues raised and look to on-going and future research to identify patient subgroups who are most likely to benefit

Contemporary outcome measures in acute stroke research: choice of primary outcome measure

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE: The diversity of available outcome measures for acute stroke trials is challenging and implies that the scales may be imperfect. To assist researchers planning trials and to aid interpretation, this article reviews and makes recommendations on the available choices of scales. The aim is to identify an approach that will be universally accepted and that should be included in most acute trials, without seeking to restrict options for special circumstances. METHODS: The article considers outcome measures that have been widely used or are currently advised. It examines desirable properties for outcome measures such as validity, relevance, responsiveness, statistical properties, availability of training, cultural and language issues, resistance to comorbidity, as well as potential weaknesses. Tracking and agreement among outcomes are covered. RESULTS: Typical ranges of scores for the common scales are described, along with their statistical properties, which in turn influence optimal analytic techniques. The timing of recovery on scores and usual practice in trial design are considered. CONCLUSIONS: The preferred outcome measure for acute trials is the modified Rankin Scale, assessed at 3 months after stroke onset or later. The interview should be conducted by a certified rater and should involve both the patient and any relevant caregiver. Incremental benefits at any level of the modified Rankin Scale may be acceptable. The modified Rankin Scale is imperfect but should be retained in its present form for comparability with existing treatment comparisons. No second measure should be required, but correlations with supporting scales may be used to confirm consistency in direction of effects on other measures