GOALS OF BEEF CATTLE AND DAIRY PRODUCERS: A COMPARISON OF THE FUZZY PAIR-WISE METHOD AND SIMPLE RANKING PROCEDURE

Beef and dairy producers' goal hierarchies over seven goals are compared using fuzzy pair-wise comparison and simple ranking methods. Results show the two methods do not provide similar goal rankings. Producers place greater importance on some goals than others, but are not in agreement as to the relative importance of goals.Livestock Production/Industries,

Beef Producer Choice in Cattle Marketing

In addition to the conventional auction method of cattle marketing, some alternative marketing arrangements include sale by private treaty, video auction, retained ownership, and use of strategic alliances. This study finds that 91% of Louisiana producers use conventional auctions, while 39% use other types of marketing arrangements. The most heavily used alternative marketing arrangement is private treaty, at 26%. Those producers using alternative marketing arrangements tend to be larger, have heavier weaning weights, have more diverse farming operations, be younger, have greater contact with their county extension agents, and depend less on income from off-farm sources.cattle marketing, conventional auction, private treaty, strategic alliance, video auction, Livestock Production/Industries, Marketing,

An adaptive neuro fuzzy inference system to model the uniaxial compressive strength of cemented hydraulic backfill

Purpose. The purpose of this paper is to develop the models for predicting the uniaxial compressive strength (UCS) of cemented hydraulic backfill (CHB), a widely used technique for filling underground voids created by mining operations as it provides the high strength required for safe and economical working environment and allows the use of waste rock from mining operations as well as tailings from mineral processing plants as ingredients. Methods. In this study, different modelling techniques such as conventional linear, nonlinear multiple regression and one of the evolving soft computing methods, adaptive neuro fuzzy inference system (ANFIS), were used for the prediction of UCS, the main criterion used to design backfill recipe. Findings. Statistical performance indices used to evaluate the efficiency of the developed models indicated that the ANFIS model can effectively be implemented for designing CHB with desired UCS. As proved by the performance indicators ANFIS model gives more compatible results with the expert opinion and current literature than conventional modelling techniques. Originality. In order to construct the models a very large database, containing more than 1600 UCS test results, was used. In addition to widely used conventional regression based modelling techniques, one of the evolving soft computing methods, ANFIS was employed. Numerical examples showing the implementation of constructed models were provided. Practical implementation. As proved by the statistical performance indicators, the developed models can be used for a reliable prediction of the UCS of CHB. However, more accurate results can be achieved by expanding the database and by constructing improved models using the algorithm presented in this paper.Мета. Побудова моделей для прогнозування межі міцності при одноосьовому стисканні цементної гідравлічної закладки для заповнення вироблених просторів шахт. Методика. Для досягнення поставленої мети були використані різні методи моделювання: лінійна та нелінійна множинна регресія, а також порівняно недавно став популярним метод програмування – адаптивне нейронечітке логічне виведення (ANFIS). За їх допомогою було спрогнозовано зміну міцності на одноосьове стискання, що є ключовим показником для визначення складу закладної суміші. Для побудови моделей використана значна база даних, яка включає результати більш ніж 1600 випробувань на одноосьове стискання. Лабораторними дослідженнями також визначалися властивості закладних матеріалів і суміші. Результати. Модель ANFIS дала найкращу продуктивність з урахуванням статистичних показників ефективності, таких як середня абсолютна процентна похибка і змінний обліковий запис. Статистичні показники продуктивності, які використовуються для оцінки ефективності розроблених моделей, свідчать, що моделювання за допомогою ANFIS дозволяє отримати результати, які більше відповідають експертній оцінці та даним з сучасної літератури, ніж інформація, отримана за допомогою традиційного моделювання. Встановлено, що на відміну від регресивного моделювання, ANFIS не вимагає заздалегідь визначених математичних рівнянь для взаємозв’язку між вхідними та вихідними змінними і використовує наданий набір даних для ефективного визначення структури моделі. Наукова новизна. Вперше для прогнозування міцності при одноосьовому стисканні були використані не лише традиційні способи моделювання, засновані на регресії, а й інноваційний метод програмування – адаптивне нейронечітке логічне виведення ANFIS. У статті наведені чисельні приклади впровадження нових побудованих моделей. Практична значимість. Статистичні індикатори продуктивності показали, що розроблені моделі можуть бути використані для надійного прогнозування міцності при одноосьовому стисканні й оптимальної рецептури закладної суміші. Однак, щоб отримати більш точні результати, необхідно мати більш широку базу даних і створити більш досконалі моделі на основі алгоритму, запропонованому в даній статті.Цель. Построение моделей для прогнозирования предела прочности при одноосном сжатии цементной гидравлической закладки для заполнения выработанных пространств шахт. Методика. Для достижения поставленной цели были использованы различные методы моделирования: линейная и нелинейная множественная регрессия, а также сравнительно недавно ставший популярным метод программирования – адаптивный нейронечеткий логический вывод (ANFIS). С их помощью было спрогнозировано изменение прочности на одноосное сжатие, что является ключевым показателем для определения состава закладочной смеси. Для построения моделей использована обширная база данных, которая включает результаты более чем 1600 испытаний на одноосное сжатие. Лабораторными исследованиями также определялись свойства закладочных материалов и смеси. Результаты. Модель ANFIS дала наилучшую производительность с учетом статистических показателей эффективности, таких как средняя абсолютная процентная погрешность и переменная учетная запись. Статистические показатели производительности, используемые для оценки эффективности разработанных моделей, свидетельствуют, что моделирование с помощью ANFIS позволяет получить результаты, которые более соответствуют экспертной оценке и данным из современной литературы, чем информация, полученная при помощи традиционного моделирования. Установлено, что в отличие от регрессионного моделирования, ANFIS не требует заранее определенных математических уравнений для взаимосвязи между входными и выходными переменными и использует предоставленный набор данных для эффективного определения структуры модели. Научная новизна. Впервые для прогнозирования прочности при одноосном сжатии были использованы не только традиционные способы моделирования, основанные на регрессии, но и инновационный метод программирования – адаптивный нейронечеткий логический вывод ANFIS. В статье приведены численные примеры внедрения новых построенных моделей. Практическая значимость. Статистические индикаторы производительности показали, что разработанные модели могут быть использованы для надежного прогнозирования прочности при одноосном сжатии и оптимальной рецептуры закладочной смеси. Однако, чтобы получить более точные результаты, необходимо иметь более широкую базу данных и создать более совершенные модели на основе алгоритма, предложенного в данной статье.The authors thank the staff and the managers of Jinfeng underground gold mine for their helps and cooperation during field and laboratory studies. The company is also acknowledged for the permission to use and publish the data

The Capability Approach: A critical review of its application in health economics

The capability approach is an approach to assessing well-being developed by Amartya Sen. Interest in this approach has resulted in several attempts to develop questionnaires to measure and value capability at an individual level in health economics. The methods of measuring and valuing capability used in the questionnaires are critically reviewed in this paper. It is argued that the methods used to measure capability result in a capability profile that is often an inaccurate description of the individual’s true capability set. In addition, existing methods of valuing capability do not consider that capability is a set, consisting of multiple combinations of functionings rather than a single combination, which means that existing methods of valuing capability may be inadequate. The difficulties in measuring and valuing capability faced by existing questionnaires means that using the capability approach in economic evaluations will require a significant amount of further research

BEEF PRODUCER CHOICE IN CATTLE MARKETING

In addition to the conventional auction method of cattle marketing, alternative marketing arrangements include sale by private treaty, video auction, retained ownership, and use of strategic alliances. This study examines use of alternative marketing arrangements and types of producers using each. Thirty-nine percent of producers used alternative arrangements.Marketing,

Regional Migration in Turkey: Its Directions and Determinants

46th European Congress of the Regional Science Association August 30th -September 3rd 2006 Volos-Greece Regional Migration in Turkey: Its Directions and Determinants A.Nilay Evcil, Vedia Dökmeci, Gülay Baþarýr Kýroðlu Istanbul-Turkey Abstract It is clear that urbanization is a natural outgrowth of industrialization. But, in developing countries industrialization lag behind the rate of urbanization which involves much more rapid migration. In the case of Turkey, urbanization is mostly related with huge population growth in cities. So, it is worth to understand migration flows to benefit from population's spatial distribution. Thus, this paper aims to show the attributes of regional migration in Turkey. First, geographic regions are compared with each other according to different migration directions with the help of multivariate analysis of variance (MANOVA). The results show that, when four different migration directions are considered (from urban-to- urban, urban-to-rural, rural-to-urban and rural-to-rural) the seven regions possess different attributes such as geographic conditions, its working population distribution, job opportunities etc. It is also worth that as a common characteristic (except the Black Sea Region): migration direction mostly takes place from urban-to-urban (even in least urbanized regions) which points to a more advanced stage of urbanization. It must also be paid attention to the migration direction occurring from urban-to-rural areas in all regions (except the Black Sea Region) which has been stimulated by the economic crisis in 2001 and the investment in the rural areas. Second, multiple regression analysis is performed in order to determine the factors most related to net migration rate. In the near future, the Marmara and Aegean regions will still receive more migrants if other regions have poor socioeconomic conditions and inadequate job opportunities. Added to this, informal economy will continue to augment, since most of migrants are unskilled for manufacturing or service sectors. As a result, the government may not be able to collect taxes. So, migration on one hand bring vitality to an area, but, on the other hand , it creates some socio-economic problems. This paper also aims to compare migration directions between 1990 and 2000. It is found that migration direction still takes place from urban to urban

Functional regression on remote sensing data in oceanography

The final publication is available at link.springer.comThe aim of this study is to propose the use of a functional data analysis approach as an alternative to the classical statistical methods most commonly used in oceanography and water quality management. In particular we consider the prediction of total suspended solids (TSS) based on remote sensing (RS) data. For this purpose several functional linear regression models and classical non-functional regression models are applied to 10 years of RS data obtained from medium resolution imaging spectrometer sensor to predict the TSS concentration in the coastal zone of the Guadalquivir estuary. The results of functional and classical approaches are compared in terms of their mean square prediction error values and the superiority of the functional models is established. A simulation study has been designed in order to support these findings and to determine the best prediction model for the TSS parameter in more general contexts.Peer ReviewedPostprint (author's final draft

Cost-effectiveness of structured education in children with type-1 diabetes mellitus

Objectives: Kids in Control OF Food (KICk-OFF) is a 5-day structured education program for 11- to 16-year-olds with type 1 diabetes mellitus (T1DM) who are using multiple daily insulin injections. This study evaluates the cost-effectiveness of the KICk-OFF education program compared with the usual care using data from the KICk-OFF trial. Methods: The short-term within-trial analysis covers the 2-year postintervention period. Data on glycated hemoglobin (HbA1c), severe hypoglycemia, and diabetic ketoacidosis (DKA) were collected over a 2-year follow-up period. Sub-group analyses have been defined on the basis of baseline HbA1c being below 7.5 percent (58.5 mmol/mol) (low group), between 7.5 percent and 9.5 percent (80.3 mmol/mol) (medium group), and over 9.5 percent (high group). The long-term cost-effectiveness evaluation has been conducted by using The Sheffield Type 1 Diabetes Policy Model, which is a patient-level simulation model on T1DM. It includes long-term microvascular (retinopathy, neuropathy, and nephropathy) and macrovascular (myocardial infarction, stroke, revascularization, and angina) diabetes-related complications and acute adverse events (severe hypoglycemia and DKA). Results: The most favorable within-trial scenario for the KICk-OFF arm led to an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) of £23,688 (base year 2009) with a cost-effectiveness probability of 41.3 percent. Simulating the long-term complications using the full cohort data, the mean ICER for the base case was £28,813 (base year 2011) and the probability of the KICk-OFF intervention being cost-effective at £20,000/QALY threshold was 42.6 percent, with considerable variation due to treatment effect duration. For the high HbA1c sub-group, the KICk-OFF arm was “dominant” (meaning it provided better health gains at lower costs than usual care) over the usual care arm in each scenario considered. Conclusions: For the whole study population, the cost-effectiveness of KICk-OFF depends on the assumption for treatment effect duration. For the high baseline HbA1c sub-group, KICk-OFF arm was estimated to be dominant over the usual care arm regardless of the assumption on the treatment effect duration

Using a discrete choice experiment involving cost to value a classification system measuring the quality of life impact of self-management for diabetes

Objective: This paper describes the use of a novel approach in health valuation of a discrete choice experiment (DCE) including a cost attribute to value a recently developed classification system for measuring the quality of life impact (both health and treatment experience) of self-management for diabetes. Methods: A large online survey was conducted using DCE with cost on UK respondents from the general population (n=1,497) and individuals with diabetes (n=405). The data was modelled using a conditional logit model with robust standard errors. The marginal rate of substitution (MRS) was used to generate willingness to pay estimates for every state defined by the classification system. Robustness of results was assessed by including interaction effects for household income. Results: There were some logical inconsistencies and insignificant coefficients for the milder levels of some attributes. There were some differences in the rank ordering of different attributes for the general population and diabetes patients. The willingness to pay to avoid the most severe state was £1,118.53 per month for the general population and £2,356.02 per month for the diabetes patient population. The results were largely robust. Conclusion: Health and self-management can be valued in a single classification system using DCE with cost. The MRS for key attributes can be used to inform cost-benefit analysis of self-management interventions in diabetes using results from clinical studies where this new classification system has been applied. The method shows promise, but found large willingness to pay estimates exceeding the cost levels used in the survey