A METHOD FOR STRATEGIC DECISION MAKING IN A WATERSHED -GAME THEORY

Rapid growth of urban areas and their development problems in industrializing countries has had major impacts on the environment. Water, the main source of life on earth is under the threat of various types of pollution. These threats have been forceful in demonstrating the necessity of the management and planning of drainage basins. The importance of the evaluation of the total economic value of the water resources and aquatic ecosystems of drainage basins has not yet been accepted in the current planning system of Turkey. In Turkey a total number of 36 public agencies take part in the decision making process within a drainage basin. Decisions taken by these agencies with respect to the use of land and water affect the quality and sustainability of water as a natural resource. These agencies act under a legal structure comprising 105 different laws and regulations related to the environment and this creates additional confusion in planning practice. The situation calls for the organization of special drainage management institutions for drainage basins. The aim of this study is to explore the use of game theory to analyze the roles and actions of different interest groups (players) and develop a better understanding of the decision making process and its consequences on a drainage basin. In this study, we use the case of a river sub-basin from the north-western region of Turkey: the Nilüfer Watershed that contains fertile agricultural lands and the third biggest industrial city in Turkey. The Nilüfer Stream is deeply polluted by industrial, agricultural and domestic wastewater. There are 1 metropolitan municipality, 20 district municipalities and 8 provincial authorities of central government within the watershed. All players have strategies about environment and planning such as land use decision, waste water standard and discharge permitting etc. Some strategies conflict the other players’ strategies. Game theory, which aims to explain the interactive decision making process with more than one decision maker, has developed as a theory of human strategic behavior based on an idealized picture of rational decision making (Binmore, 1996; Eichberger, 1992). The game theory has been applied to social sciences especially to economy, international relations, politics, which are in the state of making decisions in non-cooperative conditions. Although there is limited in number the game theory applications in planning, they are very important studies on location problem in spatial planning such as Stevens, (1961), Isard and Reiner, (1962), Isard, (1967). There are also new studies that use the game theory in planning. Sharing problem of river as a natural resource is the main study area in planning (Dinar and Wolf, 1994; Kilot, 1994; Kucukmekmetoglu and Guldman, 2002; Rogers, 1993). Game theory applications on environmental problems started in 1990s. Environmental problems such as transfrontier pollution (air or water) are often multilateral, and they affect all the agents in the economies of countries. There are studies in which air pollution problem is analyzed by the game theory with the cooperation of neighbor countries such as Ray (2000), Maler and Zeeuw (1998), Barret (1998). In this research an in depth analysis is made to understand the preferences and attitudes of different players taking part within the Nilüfer watershed. Players generally make independent decisions without any form of cooperation situation. Therefore, non-cooperative game is used in this analyze. The decision making process of the players are analyzed through a scenario in two-player games. The scenario is about strategies of environmental protection and industrial development in the watershed. We explore Nash equilibrium in game which represents present condition. Nash (1950) proved the existence of a strategic equilibrium for non-cooperative games. The main outcome of the paper will be to point to new directions in the planning process and to open to discussion the use of game theory in planning. Game theoretic approach will make it easier for the agents to cooperate if the conflicts in the planned area are clearly defined. It is possible to achieve cooperative bargaining solutions where all agents are winners. Actually, this is the target of planning because sustainable development of the river basin depends on bargaining where all agents are winners.

Determination of Agents and Their Strategies in River Basin according to Game Theory

Ecological approaches in planning discipline have been discussed since 1960s, but the coordination between economical developments, environmental sustainability and planning is lack. We observe that environmental problems continue increase. In existing planning approaches, by natural resources are being evaluated in plans. However it is known that this is not sufficient to formulate the relationship between environmental value and planning decision-making process In an approach of planning that aims to protect the environmental values and balanced use of these values, it is important that plan borders and management site. There is no possibility for sustainability if the plan borders overlap with the river basin?s borders. The aim of this study is to determine the players who decides about usage of resources in Susurluk river basin and affects the environmental quality and to find out the their strategies and conflicts. This study, which aims to find the optimum balance between conflicts of decision-makers by ?game theory?, is survey of an unfinished doctorate thesis. ?Game theory?, which is a mathematical approach that explains the rational behaviour of the conflicted agents and explains the utility for them, is used in economics and international relations. It is easier to define agents and their competition, and their conflicts in these areas, however it is more difficult to do that in environmental issues and planning because there are a lot of players and strategies in the game. The important thing is finding out the players and analysing them. In this study, basic parts of the game will be determined in order to use them in the game theory method. Basic parts of the game are players, acts, information, strategies, pay offs, outcomes and equilibrium. At the end of the study while players and acts will be determined, the answers about the play will be found the pure strategies and mixed strategies are, if there is any cooperation in the game, expected utility, risk and uncertainty situations. Then all will be discussed for determining the rules of the game. Susurluk River Basin, which is chosen as the study area, has high level of pollution due to the development of industry and increase of population. There are 81 municipalities near the river basin that is under control of 3 city authorities. The method selected for the study will search the water pollution in the river basin first. Water pollution analysis that is done in 1982 and 2000 will be determined by Ministry of Energy and Natural Resource - The General Directorate of State Hydraulic Works (DSI) in the water pollution research. Sides in other words players will be determined by investigating the pollution source and who is effected at the polluted points. Examining the horizontal and vertical relationships and existing laws helps to determine the strategies and operations of the players in the management organisation of the river basin. Strategies and benefits will be discussed with authorised personnel of municipality, ministry, and governorship. Key Words: sustainable development, river basin planning, game theory

Saving Lives At Sea: Security, Law and Adverse Effects

In the wake of recent shipwrecks at the Strait of Sicily, the European Union and its Member States have come under renewed pressure to address rescue at sea. Saving lives at sea is not simply a question of enhancing EU rescue efforts, however, but requires eliminating third party sanctions that significantly impede the proper functioning of the international rescue regime. This article focuses on anti-smuggling laws and related instruments and their thorny relation to humanitarian acts. To improve rescue efforts at sea, as a first step all humanitarian acts need to be exempted from criminal sanctions. This needs to be accompanied by efforts to desecuritize rescue, separating rescue from border security concerns

Determination of Agents and Their Strategies in River Basin according to Game Theory

Ecological approaches in planning discipline have been discussed since 1960s, but the coordination between economical developments, environmental sustainability and planning is lack. We observe that environmental problems continue increase. In existing planning approaches, by natural resources are being evaluated in plans. However it is known that this is not sufficient to formulate the relationship between environmental value and planning decision-making process In an approach of planning that aims to protect the environmental values and balanced use of these values, it is important that plan borders and management site. There is no possibility for sustainability if the plan borders overlap with the river basin's borders. The aim of this study is to determine the players who decides about usage of resources in Susurluk river basin and affects the environmental quality and to find out the their strategies and conflicts. This study, which aims to find the optimum balance between conflicts of decision-makers by ?game theory?, is survey of an unfinished doctorate thesis. ?Game theory?, which is a mathematical approach that explains the rational behaviour of the conflicted agents and explains the utility for them, is used in economics and international relations. It is easier to define agents and their competition, and their conflicts in these areas, however it is more difficult to do that in environmental issues and planning because there are a lot of players and strategies in the game. The important thing is finding out the players and analysing them. In this study, basic parts of the game will be determined in order to use them in the game theory method. Basic parts of the game are players, acts, information, strategies, pay offs, outcomes and equilibrium. At the end of the study while players and acts will be determined, the answers about the play will be found the pure strategies and mixed strategies are, if there is any cooperation in the game, expected utility, risk and uncertainty situations. Then all will be discussed for determining the rules of the game. Susurluk River Basin, which is chosen as the study area, has high level of pollution due to the development of industry and increase of population. There are 81 municipalities near the river basin that is under control of 3 city authorities. The method selected for the study will search the water pollution in the river basin first. Water pollution analysis that is done in 1982 and 2000 will be determined by Ministry of Energy and Natural Resource - The General Directorate of State Hydraulic Works (DSI) in the water pollution research. Sides in other words players will be determined by investigating the pollution source and who is effected at the polluted points. Examining the horizontal and vertical relationships and existing laws helps to determine the strategies and operations of the players in the management organisation of the river basin. Strategies and benefits will be discussed with authorised personnel of municipality, ministry, and governorship. Key Words: sustainable development, river basin planning, game theor

A METHOD FOR STRATEGIC DECISION MAKING IN A WATERSHED -GAME THEORY

Rapid growth of urban areas and their development problems in industrializing countries has had major impacts on the environment. Water, the main source of life on earth is under the threat of various types of pollution. These threats have been forceful in demonstrating the necessity of the management and planning of drainage basins. The importance of the evaluation of the total economic value of the water resources and aquatic ecosystems of drainage basins has not yet been accepted in the current planning system of Turkey. In Turkey a total number of 36 public agencies take part in the decision making process within a drainage basin. Decisions taken by these agencies with respect to the use of land and water affect the quality and sustainability of water as a natural resource. These agencies act under a legal structure comprising 105 different laws and regulations related to the environment and this creates additional confusion in planning practice. The situation calls for the organization of special drainage management institutions for drainage basins. The aim of this study is to explore the use of game theory to analyze the roles and actions of different interest groups (players) and develop a better understanding of the decision making process and its consequences on a drainage basin. In this study, we use the case of a river sub-basin from the north-western region of Turkey: the Nilüfer Watershed that contains fertile agricultural lands and the third biggest industrial city in Turkey. The Nilüfer Stream is deeply polluted by industrial, agricultural and domestic wastewater. There are 1 metropolitan municipality, 20 district municipalities and 8 provincial authorities of central government within the watershed. All players have strategies about environment and planning such as land use decision, waste water standard and discharge permitting etc. Some strategies conflict the other players' strategies. Game theory, which aims to explain the interactive decision making process with more than one decision maker, has developed as a theory of human strategic behavior based on an idealized picture of rational decision making (Binmore, 1996; Eichberger, 1992). The game theory has been applied to social sciences especially to economy, international relations, politics, which are in the state of making decisions in non-cooperative conditions. Although there is limited in number the game theory applications in planning, they are very important studies on location problem in spatial planning such as Stevens, (1961), Isard and Reiner, (1962), Isard, (1967). There are also new studies that use the game theory in planning. Sharing problem of river as a natural resource is the main study area in planning (Dinar and Wolf, 1994; Kilot, 1994; Kucukmekmetoglu and Guldman, 2002; Rogers, 1993). Game theory applications on environmental problems started in 1990s. Environmental problems such as transfrontier pollution (air or water) are often multilateral, and they affect all the agents in the economies of countries. There are studies in which air pollution problem is analyzed by the game theory with the cooperation of neighbor countries such as Ray (2000), Maler and Zeeuw (1998), Barret (1998). In this research an in depth analysis is made to understand the preferences and attitudes of different players taking part within the Nilüfer watershed. Players generally make independent decisions without any form of cooperation situation. Therefore, non-cooperative game is used in this analyze. The decision making process of the players are analyzed through a scenario in two-player games. The scenario is about strategies of environmental protection and industrial development in the watershed. We explore Nash equilibrium in game which represents present condition. Nash (1950) proved the existence of a strategic equilibrium for non-cooperative games. The main outcome of the paper will be to point to new directions in the planning process and to open to discussion the use of game theory in planning. Game theoretic approach will make it easier for the agents to cooperate if the conflicts in the planned area are clearly defined. It is possible to achieve cooperative bargaining solutions where all agents are winners. Actually, this is the target of planning because sustainable development of the river basin depends on bargaining where all agents are winners

Earthquake Safety Analysis of an Historical Masonry Building

In this study, how to study the earthquake safety of an Historical Masonry Residence that has wall damages because of soil sitting is shown. Restitution and restoration projects of the building are used in the analysis in addition to the site observation and research. The building has a basement, a ground floor, a normal floor and a half roof floor. The all walls of the basement and the outer walls of the other floors are made of stones. Inner walls are wood members. Stresses at the structural members are calculated by SAP2000 v.15 program. Planar stress analysis is made by SAP2000 v.15 program for ultimate loads. Structural members of building are modeled as shell member after the material properties are determined. Sittings of the building are considered as support settlement in the analysis. It is seen that most of the calculated stresses are lower than the limit stresses given in Turkish Seismic Code and only the basement walls have high stresses. These walls is strengthened by using FRP. Seismic behavior of residence is enhanced to demanded level by TSC-2007 with proposed strengthening metho

Investigating the Behaviour of Plaster Mortared Rural Masonry Walls

Turkey is located on the Alpine-Himalayan earthquake zone. %92 of its land is faced with earthquake hazard. Even in low intensity earthquakes, major damages have been observed in masonry structures. Masonry structures which are built without any technical support constitute the %40-45 of the structures in Turkey. Therefore, these structures cause losses of lives and remarkable economic in earthquakes. Studies on earthquake resistant structural designs focus on reinforced concrete and steel structures. Researches on masonry structures which are especially preferred in rural areas in Turkey. However, earthquakes negatively affect the masonry structures more than reinforced concrete and steel ones. In the scope of this study, behavior of plaster mixed walls which increase the strength of masonry structures is studied. For this purpose, strength values of normal plaster mixed regular walls with blend bricks and polypropylene and steel fiber mixed masonry walls are analyzed. Double-row and 45x45 mm sized normal mortared wall which is specially produced by 1:2 scaled blend bricks having 100x50x30 mm size values and walls that are formed by polypropylene and steel fiber additives are exposed to biaxial load in several angles. Stress-envelope equations are obtained due to strength of masonry walls bonded by plaster mixed blend bricks. Obtained curves make an important contribution to determine the realistic behavior of polypropylene and steel fiber plastered masonry walls