The organization of the interbank network and how ECB unconventional measures affected the e-MID overnight market

The topological properties of interbank networks have been discussed widely in the literature mainly because of their relevance for systemic risk. Here we propose to use the Stochastic Block Model to investigate and perform a model selection among several possible two block organizations of the network: these include bipartite, core-periphery, and modular structures. We apply our method to the e-MID interbank market in the period 2010-2014 and we show that in normal conditions the most likely network organization is a bipartite structure. In exceptional conditions, such as after LTRO, one of the most important unconventional measures by ECB at the beginning of 2012, the most likely structure becomes a random one and only in 2014 the e-MID market went back to a normal bipartite organization. By investigating the strategy of individual banks, we explore possible explanations and we show that the disappearance of many lending banks and the strategy switch of a very small set of banks from borrower to lender is likely at the origin of this structural change.Comment: 33 pages, 5 figure

Centrality metrics and localization in core-periphery networks

Two concepts of centrality have been defined in complex networks. The first considers the centrality of a node and many different metrics for it has been defined (e.g. eigenvector centrality, PageRank, non-backtracking centrality, etc). The second is related to a large scale organization of the network, the core-periphery structure, composed by a dense core plus an outlying and loosely-connected periphery. In this paper we investigate the relation between these two concepts. We consider networks generated via the Stochastic Block Model, or its degree corrected version, with a strong core-periphery structure and we investigate the centrality properties of the core nodes and the ability of several centrality metrics to identify them. We find that the three measures with the best performance are marginals obtained with belief propagation, PageRank, and degree centrality, while non-backtracking and eigenvector centrality (or MINRES}, showed to be equivalent to the latter in the large network limit) perform worse in the investigated networks.Comment: 15 pages, 8 figure

Eigenvalue and Eigenvector Statistics in Time Series Analysis

The study of correlated time-series is ubiquitous in statistical analysis, and the matrix decomposition of the cross-correlations between time series is a universal tool to extract the principal patterns of behavior in a wide range of complex systems. Despite this fact, no general result is known for the statistics of eigenvectors of the cross-correlations of correlated time-series. Here we use supersymmetric theory to provide novel analytical results that will serve as a benchmark for the study of correlated signals for a vast community of researchers.Comment: 8 pages, 3 figure

Tackling information asymmetry in networks: a new entropy-based ranking index

Information is a valuable asset for agents in socio-economic systems, a significant part of the information being entailed into the very network of connections between agents. The different interlinkages patterns that agents establish may, in fact, lead to asymmetries in the knowledge of the network structure; since this entails a different ability of quantifying relevant systemic properties (e.g. the risk of financial contagion in a network of liabilities), agents capable of providing a better estimate of (otherwise) unaccessible network properties, ultimately have a competitive advantage. In this paper, we address for the first time the issue of quantifying the information asymmetry arising from the network topology. To this aim, we define a novel index - InfoRank - intended to measure the quality of the information possessed by each node, computing the Shannon entropy of the ensemble conditioned on the node-specific information. Further, we test the performance of our novel ranking procedure in terms of the reconstruction accuracy of the (unaccessible) network structure and show that it outperforms other popular centrality measures in identifying the "most informative" nodes. Finally, we discuss the socio-economic implications of network information asymmetry.Comment: 12 pages, 8 figure

Resolution of ranking hierarchies in directed networks

Identifying hierarchies and rankings of nodes in directed graphs is fundamental in many applications such as social network analysis, biology, economics, and finance. A recently proposed method identifies the hierarchy by finding the ordered partition of nodes which minimises a score function, termed agony. This function penalises the links violating the hierarchy in a way depending on the strength of the violation. To investigate the resolution of ranking hierarchies we introduce an ensemble of random graphs, the Ranked Stochastic Block Model. We find that agony may fail to identify hierarchies when the structure is not strong enough and the size of the classes is small with respect to the whole network. We analytically characterise the resolution threshold and we show that an iterated version of agony can partly overcome this resolution limit.Comment: 27 pages, 9 figure

A dynamic network model with persistent links and node-specific latent variables, with an application to the interbank market

We propose a dynamic network model where two mechanisms control the probability of a link between two nodes: (i) the existence or absence of this link in the past, and (ii) node-specific latent variables (dynamic fitnesses) describing the propensity of each node to create links. Assuming a Markov dynamics for both mechanisms, we propose an Expectation-Maximization algorithm for model estimation and inference of the latent variables. The estimated parameters and fitnesses can be used to forecast the presence of a link in the future. We apply our methodology to the e-MID interbank network for which the two linkage mechanisms are associated with two different trading behaviors in the process of network formation, namely preferential trading and trading driven by node-specific characteristics. The empirical results allow to recognise preferential lending in the interbank market and indicate how a method that does not account for time-varying network topologies tends to overestimate preferential linkage.Comment: 19 pages, 6 figure

Heterogeneous Retirement Savings Strategy Selection with Reinforcement Learning

Saving and investment behaviour is crucial for all individuals to guarantee their welfare during work-life and retirement. We introduce a deep reinforcement learning model in which agents learn optimal portfolio allocation and saving strategies suitable for their heterogeneous profiles. The environment is calibrated with occupation- and age-dependent income dynamics. The research focuses on heterogeneous income trajectories dependent on agents’ profiles and incorporates the parameterisation of agents’ behaviours. The model provides a new flexible methodology to estimate lifetime consumption and investment choices for individuals with heterogeneous profiles

Deep recurrent modelling of Granger causality with latent confounding

Inferring causal relationships in observational time series data is an important task when interventions cannot be performed. Granger causality is a popular framework to infer potential causal mechanisms between different time series. The original definition of Granger causality is restricted to linear processes and leads to spurious conclusions in the presence of a latent confounder. In this work, we harness the expressive power of recurrent neural networks and propose a deep learning-based approach to model non-linear Granger causality by directly accounting for latent confounders. Our approach leverages multiple recurrent neural networks to parameterise predictive distributions and we propose the novel use of a dual-decoder setup to conduct the Granger tests. We demonstrate the model performance on non-linear stochastic time series for which the latent confounder influences the cause and effect with different time lags; results show the effectiveness of our model compared to existing benchmarks