Dynamic Price Relationships in the Grain and Cattle Markets, Pre and Post-Ethanol Mandate

This paper determines the dynamic interaction between prices of corn, soybean, grain sorghum (milo), wheat, feeder cattle and live (fed) cattle by taking into account the surge in corn consumption stemming from the boost of mandated ethanol production. Corn is a major carbohydrate-feed component of livestock, with grain sorghum and wheat serving as close substitutes. Moreover, soybean is an important protein-feed component. Being non-stationary data, a vector autoregressive (VAR) model (Sims, 1980) that includes an ‘error correction’ term is applied to the series; likewise known as a vector error correction (VEC) model (Engel and Granger, 1987 and Johansen, 1989). Two separate periods are estimated. The first considers prices prior to recent ethanol mandates. The second includes increased corn consumption from ethanol production, mandated by Energy Policy Acts of 2005 and 2007. Results are consistent with past literature regarding feeder and live cattle prices, among others. More importantly, we find support for the notion of modified feed rations in feedlot operations, given the increased corn prices following the post-ethanol mandated period. The finding is corroborated by two different methods, one via Granger Causality and other via impulse response functions.Corn Prices, Ethanol, Cattle Feed Price Dynamics, Agribusiness, Livestock Production/Industries, Risk and Uncertainty,

Price Volatility, Nonlinearity, and Asymmetric Adjustments in Corn, Soybean, and Cattle Markets: Implications of Ethanol-Driven (Market) Shocks

Grain prices have risen sharply since 2005 and 2006 affecting livestock markets by increasing feed prices and leading to significant volatility shocks. The high price levels and magnitude of sustained high volatilities has raised concerns for many sectors of the economy, in particular those with direct relation to these markets. Policy makers are analyzing the interrelationships among these markets, and the effects of energy market shocks on agricultural markets. This study considers a threshold structure in a multivariate time-series model that evaluates these market linkages, capturing asymmetric correlations between grain and livestock prices, including volatility spillovers. We empirically study the impact of corn usage for ethanol production in the evolution of the above mentioned prices. Results are compared to previous scenarios where corn, soybean and livestock production and consumption did not face the corn demand for ethanol production. We find positive dynamic correlations between corn and soybean and feeder and fed cattle prices, consistent with the literature. And we find an inverse or negative relation between corn and feeder/calf prices for the period post mandated ethanol production, as anticipated by the literature for increased corn prices. Also, we find there are adjustment costs inhibiting price transmission between the crops and the live cattle market, in the form of modifying feeding rations. More relevantly, we identify plausible asymmetric effect on the correlations between the markets, especially when considering the period for the ethanol driven corn consumption versus previous periods of corn consumption. These asymmetric correlations are the result of spillover effects.price volatility, market linkages, thresholds, ethanol-driven shocks, asymmetric correlations, spillovers, Agribusiness, Agricultural and Food Policy, Agricultural Finance, Demand and Price Analysis, Farm Management, Financial Economics, Public Economics, Research Methods/ Statistical Methods,

Multiproduct Optimal Hedging by Time-Varying Correlations in a State Dependent model of Regime-Switching

Replaced with revised version of paper 07/29/10.Agribusiness, Demand and Price Analysis, Risk and Uncertainty,

A State Dependent Regime Switching Model of Dynamic Correlations

Replaced with revised version of paper 07/29/09.dynamic correlations, regime switching, state dependent probabilities, thresholds, spillovers, Research Methods/ Statistical Methods,

Electron Spin Relaxation under Drift in GaAs

Based on a Monte Carlo method, we investigate the influence of transport conditions on the electron spin relaxation in GaAs. The decay of initial electron spin polarization is calculated as a function of distance under the presence of moderate drift fields and/or non-zero injection energies. For relatively low fields (a couple of kV/cm), a substantial amount of spin polarization is preserved for several microns at 300 K. However, it is also found that the spin relaxation rate increases rapidly with the drift field, scaling as the square of the electron wavevector in the direction of the field. When the electrons are injected with a high energy, a pronounced decrease is observed in the spin relaxation length due to an initial increase in the spin precession frequency. Hence, high-field or high-energy transport conditions may not be desirable for spin-based devices.Comment: 4 pages, 3 figures, one table. Scheduled for publication in the May 26, 2003 issue of Applied Physics Letters (039321APL

Development of design criteria for an electrochemical water reclamation system

Electrochemical system design to recover water from human urin

Surface Polar Phonon Dominated Electron Transport in Graphene

The effects of surface polar phonons on electronic transport properties of monolayer graphene are studied by using a Monte Carlo simulation. Specifically, the low-field electron mobility and saturation velocity are examined for different substrates (SiC, SiO2, and HfO2) in comparison to the intrinsic case. While the results show that the low-field mobility can be substantially reduced by the introduction of surface polar phonon scattering, corresponding degradation of the saturation velocity is not observed for all three substrates at room temperature. It is also found that surface polar phonons can influence graphene electrical resistivity even at low temperature, leading potentially to inaccurate estimation of the acoustic phonon deformation potential constant

Sea ice-atmosphere interaction: Application of multispectral satellite data in polar surface energy flux estimates

The application of multi-spectral satellite data to estimate polar surface energy fluxes is addressed. To what accuracy and over which geographic areas large scale energy budgets can be estimated are investigated based upon a combination of available remote sensing and climatological data sets. The general approach was to: (1) formulate parameterization schemes for the appropriate sea ice energy budget terms based upon the remotely sensed and/or in-situ data sets; (2) conduct sensitivity analyses using as input both natural variability (observed data in regional case studies) and theoretical variability based upon energy flux model concepts; (3) assess the applicability of these parameterization schemes to both regional and basin wide energy balance estimates using remote sensing data sets; and (4) assemble multi-spectral, multi-sensor data sets for at least two regions of the Arctic Basin and possibly one region of the Antarctic. The type of data needed for a basin-wide assessment is described and the temporal coverage of these data sets are determined by data availability and need as defined by parameterization scheme. The titles of the subjects are as follows: (1) Heat flux calculations from SSM/I and LANDSAT data in the Bering Sea; (2) Energy flux estimation using passive microwave data; (3) Fetch and stability sensitivity estimates of turbulent heat flux; and (4) Surface temperature algorithm

Leptogenesis in models with keV sterile neutrino dark matter

We analyze leptogenesis in gauge extensions of the Standard Model with keV sterile neutrino dark matter. We find that both the observed dark matter abundance and the correct baryon asymmetry of the Universe can simultaneously emerge in these models. Both the dark matter abundance and the leptogenesis are controlled by the out of equilibrium decays of the same heavy right handed neutrino.Comment: 6 pages, 1 figur