Zoonotic potential of Salmonella enterica carried by pet tortoises

The prevalence of Salmonella in chelonians is not known in the UK and it is not clear whether such Salmonella strains would be pathogenic for human beings. Some strains, such as members of the Arizonae subgroup, may be unable to cause anything more than very mild disease. To determine the carriage of Salmonella in pet tortoises, cloacal swabs were taken for culture. Salmonella enterica Group D was isolated from 5 of the 89 samples. All five were from the same household of seven tortoises. Salmonella isolates were shown by PCR to carry the invA and spiC genes associated with pathogenicity islands 1 and 2. Each isolate carried both genes indicating they had the genetic basis for disease and enterocyte invasion in human beings. The study indicates a low rate of asymptomatic carriage among the general population of pet tortoises. However, it does suggest that those Salmonella strains colonising the tortoise can carry Salmonella pathogenicity island (SPI)-1 and SPI-2 conferring the potential to cause disease in human beings and other animals

NOViSE: a virtual natural orifice transluminal endoscopic surgery simulator

Purpose: Natural Orifice Transluminal Endoscopic Surgery (NOTES) is a novel technique in minimally invasive surgery whereby a flexible endoscope is inserted via a natural orifice to gain access to the abdominal cavity, leaving no external scars. This innovative use of flexible endoscopy creates many new challenges and is associated with a steep learning curve for clinicians. Methods: We developed NOViSE - the first force-feedback enabled virtual reality simulator for NOTES training supporting a flexible endoscope. The haptic device is custom built and the behaviour of the virtual flexible endoscope is based on an established theoretical framework – the Cosserat Theory of Elastic Rods. Results: We present the application of NOViSE to the simulation of a hybrid trans-gastric cholecystectomy procedure. Preliminary results of face, content and construct validation have previously shown that NOViSE delivers the required level of realism for training of endoscopic manipulation skills specific to NOTES Conclusions: VR simulation of NOTES procedures can contribute to surgical training and improve the educational experience without putting patients at risk, raising ethical issues or requiring expensive animal or cadaver facilities. In the context of an experimental technique, NOViSE could potentially facilitate NOTES development and contribute to its wider use by keeping practitioners up to date with this novel surgical technique. NOViSE is a first prototype and the initial results indicate that it provides promising foundations for further development

Anisotropic Pressures at Ultra-stiff Singularities and the Stability of Cyclic Universes

We show that the inclusion of simple anisotropic pressures stops the isotropic Friedmann universe being a stable attractor as an initial or final singularity is approached when pressures can exceed the energy density. This shows that the situation with isotropic pressures, studied earlier in the context of cyclic and ekpyrotic cosmologies, is not generic, and Kasner-like behaviour occurs when simple pressure anisotropies are present. We find all the asymptotic behaviours and determine the dynamics when the anisotropic principal pressures are proportional to the density. We expect distortions and anisotropies to be significantly amplified through a simple cosmological bounce in cyclic or ekpyrotic cosmologies when ultra-stiff pressures are present.Comment: 18 pages, 2 figure

Distributions of forecasting errors of forecast combinations: implications for inventory management

Inventory control systems rely on accurate and robust forecasts of future demand to support decisions such as setting of safety stocks. Combining forecasts is shown to be effective not only in reducing forecast errors, but also in being less sensitive to limitations of a single model. Research on forecast combination has primarily focused on improving accuracy, largely ignoring the overall shape and distribution of forecast errors. Nonetheless, these are essential for managing the level of aversion to risk and uncertainty for companies. This study examines the forecast error distributions of base and combination forecasts and their implications for inventory performance. It explores whether forecast combinations transform the forecast error distribution towards desired properties for safety stock calculations, typically based on the assumption of normally distributed errors and unbiased forecasts. In addition, it considers the similarity between in- and out-of-sample characteristics of such errors and the impact of different lead times. The effects of established combination methods are explored empirically using a representative set of forecasting methods and a dataset of 229 weekly demand series from a household and personal care leading UK manufacturer. Findings suggest that forecast combinations make the in- and out-of-sample behaviour more consistent, requiring less safety stock on average than base forecasts. Furthermore we find that using in-sample empirical error distributions of combined forecasts approximates well the out-of-sample ones, in contrast to base forecasts

Dynamics of Logamediate Inflation

A computation of the inflationary observables n_{s} and r is made for `logamediate' inflation where the cosmological scale factor expands as $a=\exp (A(\ln t)^{\lambda})$, and is compared to their predicted values in the intermediate inflationary theory, where $a=\exp (Bt^{f})$. Both versions prove to be consistent with observational measurements of the cosmic background radiation. It is shown that the dynamics of a single inflaton field can be mimicked by a system of several fields in an analogous manner to that created by the joint evolution of the fields in assisted power-law inflation.Comment: 7 pages, 5 figures. Extended introductio

Structure and stability of the Lukash plane-wave spacetime

We study the vacuum, plane-wave Bianchi $VII{}_{h}$ spacetimes described by the Lukash metric. Combining covariant with orthonormal frame techniques, we describe these models in terms of their irreducible kinematical and geometrical quantities. This covariant description is used to study analytically the response of the Lukash spacetime to linear perturbations. We find that the stability of the vacuum solution depends crucially on the background shear anisotropy. The stronger the deviation from the Hubble expansion, the more likely the overall linear instability of the model. Our analysis addresses rotational, shear and Weyl curvature perturbations and identifies conditions sufficient for the linear growth of these distortions.Comment: Revised version, references added. To appear in Class. Quantum Gra

Solving the Flatness and Quasi-flatness Problems in Brans-Dicke Cosmologies with a Varying Light Speed

We define the flatness and quasi-flatness problems in cosmological models. We seek solutions to both problems in homogeneous and isotropic Brans-Dicke cosmologies with varying speed of light. We formulate this theory and find perturbative, non-perturbative, and asymptotic solutions using both numerical and analytical methods. For a particular range of variations of the speed of light the flatness problem can be solved. Under other conditions there exists a late-time attractor with a constant value of \Omega that is smaller than, but of order, unity. Thus these theories may solve the quasi-flatness problem, a considerably more challenging problem than the flatness problem. We also discuss the related \Lambda and quasi-\Lambda problem in these theories. We conclude with an appraisal of the difficulties these theories may face.Comment: 21 pages, 6 figure

Spacetime Foam, Holographic Principle, and Black Hole Quantum Computers

Spacetime foam, also known as quantum foam, has its origin in quantum fluctuations of spacetime. Arguably it is the source of the holographic principle, which severely limits how densely information can be packed in space. Its physics is also intimately linked to that of black holes and computation. In particular, the same underlying physics is shown to govern the computational power of black hole quantum computers.Comment: 8 pages, LaTeX; Talk given by Jack Ng, in celebration of Paul Frampton's 60th birthday, at the Coral Gables Conference (in Fort Lauderdale, Florida on December 17, 2003). To appear in the Proceedings of the 2003 Coral Gables Conferenc

Spherical Curvature Inhomogeneities in String Cosmology

We study the evolution of non-linear spherically symmetric inhomogeneities in string cosmology. Friedmann solutions of different spatial curvature are matched to produce solutions which describe the evolution of non-linear density and curvature inhomogeneities. The evolution of bound and unbound inhomogeneities are studied. The problem of primordial black hole formation is discussed in the string cosmological context and the pattern of evolution is determined in the pre- and post-big-bang phases of evolution.Comment: 19 pages, Latex, 4 figure