Implicaciones metodológicas e inconsistencias de la Tercera Comunicación Nacional sobre Cambio Climático de Colombia

Las Comunicaciones Nacionales sobre Cambio Climático (CNCC) son un mecanismo para que los países informen sus avances en mitigación y adaptación, y constituyen uno de los elementos de base para la política sobre cambio climático a escala nacional. Colombia ha emitido tres CNCC. La tercera plantea un escenario que considera las proyecciones de diversos modelos incluidos en la quinta fase del Proyecto de Comparación de Modelos Acoplados (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, CMIP), el cual se estima como el promedio de las proyecciones correspondientes a las cuatro trayectorias de concentración representativa (Representative Concentration Pathways,RCP) presentadas en el quinto reporte de evaluación del Panel Intergubernamental sobre Cambio Climático. Cada una de estas RCP representa una trayectoria de concentración de gases de efecto invernadero (GEI) para un escenario particular de crecimiento poblacional, económico y tecnológico que conduce a una posible trayectoria de evolución del sistema climático. En este estudio se comparan las proyecciones presentadas en la Tercera CNCC con las obtenidas directamente de los modelos empleados. Nuestros resultados demuestran que al utilizarse un promedio de RCP se pierden escenarios alternos que podrían ser importantes a la hora de considerar posibles futuros diferentes y anulan la utilidad de plantear diversas trayectorias de emisiones de GEI. Más aun, una comparación entre la Segunda y la Tercera CNCC muestra proyecciones de precipitación opuestas para diferentes regiones del país, lo cual es de particular importancia, pues el escenario de cambio climático planteado en la Tercera CNCC sirve de referencia para la toma de decisiones en materia de cambio climático a nivel nacional

First flush in a combined sewer system

Pollutant first flush was examined in an urban catchment with area of 12.7 ha and drained by a combined sewer system located in northern Italy. A total of 23 rainfall-runoff events were monitored and 281 samples were analyzed. The selected quality parameters were biochemical oxygen demand, chemical oxygen demand, suspended solids, settleable solids, total phosphorus, total nitrogen, ammonium nitrogen, lead, and zinc, specific conductivity and hydrocarbons. A subset of representative storms was selected for first flush analysis. The catchment presented a strong first flush for almost all storms and most constituents. The analysis shows that treating the maximum amount of the early part of the runoff is a better strategy than treating a constant flow rate. Best management practices that can treat or store the first runoff are favored in this kind of system for these water quality parameters

Interaction between Notch signalling and Lunatic fringe during somite boundary formation in the mouse

AbstractBackground: The process of somitogenesis can be divided into three major events: the prepatterning of the mesoderm; the formation of boundaries between the prospective somites; and the cellular differentiation of the somites. Expression and functional studies have demonstrated the involvement of the murine Notch pathway in somitogenesis, although its precise role in this process is not yet well understood. We examined the effect of mutations in the Notch pathway elements Delta like 1 (Dll1), Notch1 and RBPJκ on genes expressed in the presomitic mesoderm (PSM) and have defined the spatial relationships of Notch pathway gene expression in this region.Results: We have shown that expression of Notch pathway genes in the PSM overlaps in the region where the boundary between the posterior and anterior halves of two consecutive somites will form. The Dll1, Notch1 and RBPJκ mutations disrupt the expression of Lunatic fringe (L-fng), Jagged1, Mesp1, Mesp2 and Hes5 in the PSM. Furthermore, expression of EphA4, mCer 1 and uncx4.1, markers for the anterior–posterior subdivisions of the somites, is down-regulated to different extents in Notch pathway mutants, indicating a global alteration of pattern in the PSM.Conclusions: We propose a model for the mechanism of somite border formation in which the activity of Notch in the PSM is restricted by L-fng to a boundary-forming territory in the posterior half of the prospective somite. In this region, Notch function activates a set of genes that are involved in boundary formation and anterior–posterior somite identity

Chemical flushing from an urban-fringe watershed: Hydrologic and riparian soil dynamics

The goal of the current study is to better understand the role of storm dynamics on stream water chemical variability in a highly polluted urban-fringe watershed. The study was conducted in the upper reach of the Arroyo Seco watershed located on the eastern edge of the densely urbanized Los Angeles basin in California. During the 2008-2009 study period, high-frequency stream water observations of chloride, fluoride, sulfate, and nitrate were monitored through a series of storm events and were compared to pre- and post-winter storm season geochemical soil profiles. Of the four solutes measured, nitrate demonstrated hydrologically enhanced behavior. Chloride, fluoride, and sulfate exhibited enhanced behavior initially (first flush), but transitioned to dilution behavior as the season progressed. Soil chemistry analyses in the riparian zone confirmed the abundance of nitrate on the soil surface, serving as a source for stream water nitrate. Observations and analyses collectively suggest that the chemical variability observed during the storms is dependent not only on discharge, but also on the magnitude and intensity of rainfall, the length of the antecedent dry period, and riparian soil composition. A further understanding of these factors will ultimately improve geochemical models for prediction of downstream chemical loads from regional urban-fringe watersheds. © 2013 Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg

Modelagem de escoamento acoplado de superfície e subsuperfície em encostas naturais no Vale Aburrá (Medellín, Colômbia)

Numerical results are presented of surface-subsurface water modeling of a natural hillslope located in the Aburrá Valley, in the city of Medellín (Antioquia, Colombia). The integrated finite-element hydrogeological simulator HydroGeoSphere is used to conduct transient variably saturated simulations. The objective is to analyze pore-water pressure and saturation variation at shallow depths, as well as volumes of water infiltrated in the porous medium. These aspects are important in the region of study, which is highly affected by soil movements, especially during the high-rain seasons that occur twice a year. The modeling exercise considers rainfall events that occurred between October and December 2014 and a hillslope that is currently monitored because of soil instability problems. Simulation results show that rainfall temporal variability, mesh resolution, coupling length, and the conceptual model chosen to represent the heterogeneous soil, have a noticeable influence on results, particularly for high rainfall intensities. Results also indicate that surface-subsurface coupled modeling is required to avoid unrealistic increase in hydraulic heads when high rainfall intensities cause top-down saturation of soil. This work is a first effort towards fostering hydrogeological modeling expertise that may support the development of monitoring systems and early landslide warning in a country where the rainy season is often the cause of hydrogeological tragedies associated with landslides, mud flow or debris flow. © 2016 Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelber