Estimates of live-tree carbon stores in the Pacific Northwest are sensitive to model selection

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Estimates of live-tree carbon stores are influenced by numerous uncertainties. One of them is model-selection uncertainty: one has to choose among multiple empirical equations and conversion factors that can be plausibly justified as locally applicable to calculate the carbon store from inventory measurements such as tree height and diameter at breast height (DBH). Here we quantify the model-selection uncertainty for the five most numerous tree species in six counties of northwest Oregon, USA.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>The results of our study demonstrate that model-selection error may introduce 20 to 40% uncertainty into a live-tree carbon estimate, possibly making this form of error the largest source of uncertainty in estimation of live-tree carbon stores. The effect of model selection could be even greater if models are applied beyond the height and DBH ranges for which they were developed.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>Model-selection uncertainty is potentially large enough that it could limit the ability to track forest carbon with the precision and accuracy required by carbon accounting protocols. Without local validation based on detailed measurements of usually destructively sampled trees, it is very difficult to choose the best model when there are several available. Our analysis suggests that considering tree form in equation selection may better match trees to existing equations and that substantial gaps exist, in terms of both species and diameter ranges, that are ripe for new model-building effort.</p

Kinematic Plasticity during Flight in Fruit Bats: Individual Variability in Response to Loading

All bats experience daily and seasonal fluctuation in body mass. An increase in mass requires changes in flight kinematics to produce the extra lift necessary to compensate for increased weight. How bats modify their kinematics to increase lift, however, is not well understood. In this study, we investigated the effect of a 20% increase in mass on flight kinematics for Cynopterus brachyotis, the lesser dog-faced fruit bat. We reconstructed the 3D wing kinematics and how they changed with the additional mass. Bats showed a marked change in wing kinematics in response to loading, but changes varied among individuals. Each bat adjusted a different combination of kinematic parameters to increase lift, indicating that aerodynamic force generation can be modulated in multiple ways. Two main kinematic strategies were distinguished: bats either changed the motion of the wings by primarily increasing wingbeat frequency, or changed the configuration of the wings by increasing wing area and camber. The complex, individual-dependent response to increased loading in our bats points to an underappreciated aspect of locomotor control, in which the inherent complexity of the biomechanical system allows for kinematic plasticity. The kinematic plasticity and functional redundancy observed in bat flight can have evolutionary consequences, such as an increase potential for morphological and kinematic diversification due to weakened locomotor trade-offs

Pathways to a cancer-free future: a protocol for modelled evaluations to minimise the future burden of colorectal cancer in Australia.

INTRODUCTION:With almost 50% of cases preventable and the Australian National Bowel Cancer Screening Program in place, colorectal cancer (CRC) is a prime candidate for investment to reduce the cancer burden. The challenge is determining effective ways to reduce morbidity and mortality and their implementation through policy and practice. Pathways-Bowel is a multistage programme that aims to identify best-value investment in CRC control by integrating expert and end-user engagement; relevant evidence; modelled interventions to guide future investment; and policy-driven implementation of interventions using evidence-based methods. METHODS AND ANALYSIS: Pathways-Bowel is an iterative work programme incorporating a calibrated and validated CRC natural history model for Australia (Policy1-Bowel) and assessing the health and cost outcomes and resource use of targeted interventions. Experts help identify and prioritise modelled evaluations of changing trends and interventions and critically assess results to advise on their real-world applicability. Where appropriate the results are used to support public policy change and make the case for optimal investment in specific CRC control interventions. Fourteen high-priority evaluations have been modelled or planned, including evaluations of CRC outcomes from the changing prevalence of modifiable exposures, including smoking and body fatness; potential benefits of daily aspirin intake as chemoprevention; increasing CRC incidence in people aged <50 years; increasing screening participation in the general and Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander populations; alternative screening technologies and modalities; and changes to follow-up surveillance protocols. Pathways-Bowel is a unique, comprehensive approach to evaluating CRC control; no prior body of work has assessed the relative benefits of a variety of interventions across CRC development and progression to produce a list of best-value investments. ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION:Ethics approval was not required as human participants were not involved. Findings are reported in a series of papers in peer-reviewed journals and presented at fora to engage the community and policymakers

A Stated Preference Investigation into the Chinese Demand for Farmed vs. Wild Bear Bile

Farming of animals and plants has recently been considered not merely as a more efficient and plentiful supply of their products but also as a means of protecting wild populations from that trade. Amongst these nascent farming products might be listed bear bile. Bear bile has been exploited by traditional Chinese medicinalists for millennia. Since the 1980s consumers have had the options of: illegal wild gall bladders, bile extracted from caged live bears or the acid synthesised chemically. Despite these alternatives bears continue to be harvested from the wild. In this paper we use stated preference techniques using a random sample of the Chinese population to estimate demand functions for wild bear bile with and without competition from farmed bear bile. We find a willingness to pay considerably more for wild bear bile than farmed. Wild bear bile has low own price elasticity and cross price elasticity with farmed bear bile. The ability of farmed bear bile to reduce demand for wild bear bile is at best limited and, at prevailing prices, may be close to zero or have the opposite effect. The demand functions estimated suggest that the own price elasticity of wild bear bile is lower when competing with farmed bear bile than when it is the only option available. This means that the incumbent product may actually sell more items at a higher price when competing than when alone in the market. This finding may be of broader interest to behavioural economists as we argue that one explanation may be that as product choice increases price has less impact on decision making. For the wildlife farming debate this indicates that at some prices the introduction of farmed competition might increase the demand for the wild product

Generation of Humoral Immune Responses to Multi-Allele PfAMA1 Vaccines; Effect of Adjuvant and Number of Component Alleles on the Breadth of Response

There is increasing interest in multi-allele vaccines to overcome strain-specificity against polymorphic vaccine targets such as Apical Membrane Antigen 1 (AMA1). These have been shown to induce broad inhibitory antibodies in vitro and formed the basis for the design of three Diversity-Covering (DiCo) proteins with similar immunological effects. The antibodies produced are to epitopes that are shared between vaccine alleles and theoretically, increasing the number of component AMA1 alleles is expected to broaden the antibody response. A plateau effect could however impose a limit on the number of alleles needed to achieve the broadest specificity. Moreover, production cost and the vaccine formulation process would limit the number of component alleles. In this paper, we compare rabbit antibody responses elicited with multi-allele vaccines incorporating seven (three DiCos and four natural AMA1 alleles) and three (DiCo mix) antigens for gains in broadened specificity. We also investigate the effect of three adjuvant platforms on antigen specificity and antibody functionality. Our data confirms a broadened response after immunisation with DiCo mix in all three adjuvants. Higher antibody titres were elicited with either CoVaccine HT™ or Montanide ISA 51, resulting in similar in vitro inhibition (65–82%) of five out of six culture-adapted P. falciparum strains. The antigen binding specificities of elicited antibodies were also similar and independent of the adjuvant used or the number of vaccine component alleles. Thus neither the four extra antigens nor adjuvant had any observable benefits with respect to specificity broadening, although adjuvant choice influenced the absolute antibody levels and thus the extent of parasite inhibition. Our data confirms the feasibility and potential of multi-allele PfAMA1 formulations, and highlights the need for adjuvants with improved antibody potentiation properties for AMA1-based vaccines

Caenorhabditis elegans Battling Starvation Stress: Low Levels of Ethanol Prolong Lifespan in L1 Larvae

The nematode Caenorhabditis elegans arrests development at the first larval stage if food is not present upon hatching. Larvae in this stage provide an excellent model for studying stress responses during development. We found that supplementing starved larvae with ethanol markedly extends their lifespan within this L1 diapause. The effects of ethanol-induced lifespan extension can be observed when the ethanol is added to the medium at any time between 0 and 10 days after hatching. The lowest ethanol concentration that extended lifespan was 1 mM (0.005%); higher concentrations to 68 mM (0.4%) did not result in increased survival. In spite of their extended survival, larvae did not progress to the L2 stage. Supplementing starved cultures with n-propanol and n-butanol also extended lifespan, but methanol and isopropanol had no measurable effect. Mass spectrometry analysis of nematode fatty acids and amino acids revealed that L1 larvae can incorporate atoms from ethanol into both types of molecules. Based on these data, we suggest that ethanol supplementation may extend the lifespan of L1 larvae by either serving as a carbon and energy source and/or by inducing a stress response

Extant diversity of bryophytes emerged from successive post-Mesozoic diversification bursts

Unraveling the macroevolutionary history of bryophytes, which arose soon after the origin of land plants but exhibit substantially lower species richness than the more recently derived angiosperms, has been challenged by the scarce fossil record. Here we demonstrate that overall estimates of net species diversification are approximately half those reported in ferns and similar to 30% those described for angiosperms. Nevertheless, statistical rate analyses on time-calibrated large-scale phylogenies reveal that mosses and liverworts underwent bursts of diversification since the mid-Mesozoic. The diversification rates further increase in specific lineages towards the Cenozoic to reach, in the most recently derived lineages, values that are comparable to those reported in angiosperms. This suggests that low diversification rates do not fully account for current patterns of bryophyte species richness, and we hypothesize that, as in gymnosperms, the low extant bryophyte species richness also results from massive extinctions.Assembling the Tree of Life programme at NSF; NSF [EF-0531730-002, EF-0531680, EF-0531750]; Scottish Government's Rural and Environment Science and Analytical Services Division; BeiPD-cofund Marie Curie fellowshipinfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersio

Influence of ischemic core muscle fibers on surface depolarization potentials in superfused cardiac tissue preparations: a simulation study

Thin-walled cardiac tissue samples superfused with oxygenated solutions are widely used in experimental studies. However, due to decreased oxygen supply and insufficient wash out of waste products in the inner layers of such preparations, electrophysiological functions could be compromised. Although the cascade of events triggered by cutting off perfusion is well known, it remains unclear as to which degree electrophysiological function in viable surface layers is affected by pathological processes occurring in adjacent tissue. Using a 3D numerical bidomain model, we aim to quantify the impact of superfusion-induced heterogeneities occurring in the depth of the tissue on impulse propagation in superficial layers. Simulations demonstrated that both the pattern of activation as well as the distribution of extracellular potentials close to the surface remain essentially unchanged. This was true also for the electrophysiological properties of cells in the surface layer, where most relevant depolarization parameters varied by less than 5.5 %. The main observed effect on the surface was related to action potential duration that shortened noticeably by 53 % as hypoxia deteriorated. Despite the known limitations of such experimental methods, we conclude that superfusion is adequate for studying impulse propagation and depolarization whereas repolarization studies should consider the influence of pathological processes taking place at the core of tissue sample

Drivers of reef shark abundance and biomass in the Solomon Islands

Remote island nations face a number of challenges in addressing concerns about shark population status, including access to rigorously collected data and resources to manage fisheries. At present, very little data are available on shark populations in the Solomon Islands and scientific surveys to document shark and ray diversity and distribution have not been completed. We aimed to provide a baseline of the relative abundance and diversity of reef sharks and rays and assess the major drivers of reef shark abundance/biomass in the Western Province of the Solomon Islands using stereo baited remote underwater video. On average reef sharks were more abundant than in surrounding countries such as Fiji and Indonesia, yet below that of remote islands without historical fishing pressure, suggesting populations are relatively healthy but not pristine. We also assessed the influence of location, habitat type/complexity, depth and prey biomass on reef shark abundance and biomass. Location was the most important factor driving reef shark abundance and biomass with two times the abundance and a 43% greater biomass of reef sharks in the more remote locations, suggesting fishing may be impacting sharks in some areas. Our results give a much needed baseline and suggest that reef shark populations are still relatively unexploited, providing an opportunity for improved management of sharks and rays in the Solomon Islands

Exploring CRM effectiveness: an institutional theory perspective

This study identifies the potential contribution that institutional theory can make to understanding the success of marketing practices. Based on institutional theory, we argue that the effectiveness of marketing practices decreases when firms are motivated to adopt such practices under the influence of institutional pressures originating in firms' environments. However, alignment between a practice and a firm's marketing strategy may buffer against these negative effects. We apply these insights to the case of customer relationship management (CRM). CRM is considered an important way to enhance customer loyalty and firm performance, but it has also been criticized for being expensive and for not living up to expectations. Empirical data from 107 organizations confirm that, in general, adopting CRM for mimetic motives is likely to result in fewer customer insights as a result of using this practice. Our study suggests that institutional theory has much to offer to the investigation of the effectiveness of marketing practices