On solving Ordinary Differential Equations using Gaussian Processes

We describe a set of Gaussian Process based approaches that can be used to solve non-linear Ordinary Differential Equations. We suggest an explicit probabilistic solver and two implicit methods, one analogous to Picard iteration and the other to gradient matching. All methods have greater accuracy than previously suggested Gaussian Process approaches. We also suggest a general approach that can yield error estimates from any standard ODE solver

Common Sense is Not Common. So How Can A Leader Make Good Decisions?

In education today there is a move away from top-down leadership toward a more inclusive, shared or participative leadership model. This model includes shared decision-making, which has the potential to empower and radically change any organization willing to take the risk of implementing this type of leadership. This article combines another important aspect of leadership to the concept of shared decision-making: servant leadership. With a servant-leader at the helm and shared decision-making in place, a school has the potential to grow in sync with the needs and desires of its stakeholders

Generative Neural Machine Translation

We introduce Generative Neural Machine Translation (GNMT), a latent variable architecture which is designed to model the semantics of the source and target sentences. We modify an encoder-decoder translation model by adding a latent variable as a language agnostic representation which is encouraged to learn the meaning of the sentence. GNMT achieves competitive BLEU scores on pure translation tasks, and is superior when there are missing words in the source sentence. We augment the model to facilitate multilingual translation and semi-supervised learning without adding parameters. This framework significantly reduces overfitting when there is limited paired data available, and is effective for translating between pairs of languages not seen during training

Bayesian Conditional Cointegration

Cointegration is an important topic for time-series, and describes a relationship between two series in which a linear combination is stationary. Classically, the test for cointegration is based on a two stage process in which first the linear relation between the series is estimated by Ordinary Least Squares. Subsequently a unit root test is performed on the residuals. A well-known deficiency of this classical approach is that it can lead to erroneous conclusions about the presence of cointegration. As an alternative, we present a framework for estimating whether cointegration exists using Bayesian inference which is empirically superior to the classical approach. Finally, we apply our technique to model segmented cointegration in which cointegration may exist only for limited time. In contrast to previous approaches our model makes no restriction on the number of possible cointegration segments.Comment: Appears in Proceedings of the 29th International Conference on Machine Learning (ICML 2012

Generating Sentences Using a Dynamic Canvas

We introduce the Attentive Unsupervised Text (W)riter (AUTR), which is a word level generative model for natural language. It uses a recurrent neural network with a dynamic attention and canvas memory mechanism to iteratively construct sentences. By viewing the state of the memory at intermediate stages and where the model is placing its attention, we gain insight into how it constructs sentences. We demonstrate that AUTR learns a meaningful latent representation for each sentence, and achieves competitive log-likelihood lower bounds whilst being computationally efficient. It is effective at generating and reconstructing sentences, as well as imputing missing words.Comment: AAAI 201

Thinking Fast and Slow with Deep Learning and Tree Search

Sequential decision making problems, such as structured prediction, robotic control, and game playing, require a combination of planning policies and generalisation of those plans. In this paper, we present Expert Iteration (ExIt), a novel reinforcement learning algorithm which decomposes the problem into separate planning and generalisation tasks. Planning new policies is performed by tree search, while a deep neural network generalises those plans. Subsequently, tree search is improved by using the neural network policy to guide search, increasing the strength of new plans. In contrast, standard deep Reinforcement Learning algorithms rely on a neural network not only to generalise plans, but to discover them too. We show that ExIt outperforms REINFORCE for training a neural network to play the board game Hex, and our final tree search agent, trained tabula rasa, defeats MoHex 1.0, the most recent Olympiad Champion player to be publicly released.Comment: v1 to v2: - Add a value function in MCTS - Some MCTS hyper-parameters changed - Repetition of experiments: improved accuracy and errors shown. (note the reduction in effect size for the tpt/cat experiment) - Results from a longer training run, including changes in expert strength in training - Comparison to MoHex. v3: clarify independence of ExIt and AG0. v4: see appendix

Practical Gauss-Newton Optimisation for Deep Learning

We present an efficient block-diagonal ap- proximation to the Gauss-Newton matrix for feedforward neural networks. Our result- ing algorithm is competitive against state- of-the-art first order optimisation methods, with sometimes significant improvement in optimisation performance. Unlike first-order methods, for which hyperparameter tuning of the optimisation parameters is often a labo- rious process, our approach can provide good performance even when used with default set- tings. A side result of our work is that for piecewise linear transfer functions, the net- work objective function can have no differ- entiable local maxima, which may partially explain why such transfer functions facilitate effective optimisation.Comment: ICML 201

Online Structured Laplace Approximations For Overcoming Catastrophic Forgetting

We introduce the Kronecker factored online Laplace approximation for overcoming catastrophic forgetting in neural networks. The method is grounded in a Bayesian online learning framework, where we recursively approximate the posterior after every task with a Gaussian, leading to a quadratic penalty on changes to the weights. The Laplace approximation requires calculating the Hessian around a mode, which is typically intractable for modern architectures. In order to make our method scalable, we leverage recent block-diagonal Kronecker factored approximations to the curvature. Our algorithm achieves over 90% test accuracy across a sequence of 50 instantiations of the permuted MNIST dataset, substantially outperforming related methods for overcoming catastrophic forgetting.Comment: 13 pages, 6 figure