Th17 micro-milieu regulates NLRP1-dependent caspase-5 activity in skin autoinflammation.

IL-1β is a potent player in cutaneous inflammation and central for the development of a Th17 micro-milieu in autoinflammatory diseases including psoriasis. Its production is controlled at the transcriptional level and by subsequent posttranslational processing via inflammatory caspases. In this study, we detected inflammatory caspase-5 active in epidermal keratinocytes and in psoriatic skin lesions. Further, interferon-γ and interleukin-17A synergistically induced caspase-5 expression in cultured keratinocytes, which was dependent on the antimicrobial peptide psoriasin (S100A7). However, diseases-relevant triggers for caspase-5 activity and IL-1β production remain unknown. Recently, extranuclear DNA has been identified as danger-signals abundant in the psoriatic epidermis. Here, we could demonstrate that cytosolic double-stranded (ds) DNA transfected into keratinocytes triggered the activation of caspase-5 and the release of IL-1β. Further, interleukin-17A promoted caspase-5 function via facilitation of the NLRP1-inflammasome. Anti-inflammatory vitamin D interfered with the IL-1β release and suppressed caspase-5 in keratinocytes and in psoriatic skin lesions. Our data link the disease-intrinsic danger signals psoriasin (S100A7) and dsDNA for NLPR1-dependent caspase-5 activity in psoriasis providing potential therapeutic targets in Th17-mediated skin autoinflammation

Nuclear multifragmentation and fission: similarity and differences

Thermal multifragmentation of hot nuclei is interpreted as the nuclear liquid--fog phase transition deep inside the spinodal region. The experimental data for p(8.1GeV) + Au collisions are analyzed. It is concluded that the decay process of hot nuclei is characterized by two size parameters: transition state and freeze-out volumes. The similarity between dynamics of fragmentation and ordinary fission is discussed. The IMF emission time is related to the mean rupture time at the multi-scission point, which corresponds to the kinetic freeze-out configuration.Comment: 7 pages, 3 Postscript figures, Proceedings of IWM 2005, Catani

Comparative Study of Multifragmentation of Gold Nuclei Induced by Relativistic Protons, 4^4He, and 12^{12}C

Multiple emission of intermediate-mass fragments has been studied for the collisions of p, $^4$He and $^{12}$C on Au with the $4\pi$ setup FASA. The mean IMF multiplicities (for the events with at least one IMF) are saturating at the value of $2.2\pm0.2$ for the incident energies above 6 GeV. The observed IMF multiplicities cannot be described in a two-stage scenario, a fast cascade followed by a statistical multifragmentation. Agreement with the measured IMF multiplicities is obtained by introducing an intermediate phase and modifying empirically the excitation energies and masses of the remnants. The angular distributions and energy spectra from the p-induced collisions are in agreement with the scenario of ``thermal'' multifragmentation of a hot and diluted target spectator. In the case of $^{12}$C+Au(22.4 GeV) and $^4$He(14.6 GeV)+Au collisions, deviations from a pure thermal break-up are seen in the energy spectra of the emitted fragments, which are harder than those both from model calculations and from the measured ones for p-induced collisions. This difference is attributed to a collective flow.Comment: 33 pages 15 figures, accepted in Nucl. Phys.

Global fertility in 204 countries and territories, 1950–2021, with forecasts to 2100: a comprehensive demographic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

Background: Accurate assessments of current and future fertility—including overall trends and changing population age structures across countries and regions—are essential to help plan for the profound social, economic, environmental, and geopolitical challenges that these changes will bring. Estimates and projections of fertility are necessary to inform policies involving resource and health-care needs, labour supply, education, gender equality, and family planning and support. The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2021 produced up-to-date and comprehensive demographic assessments of key fertility indicators at global, regional, and national levels from 1950 to 2021 and forecast fertility metrics to 2100 based on a reference scenario and key policy-dependent alternative scenarios. Methods: To estimate fertility indicators from 1950 to 2021, mixed-effects regression models and spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression were used to synthesise data from 8709 country-years of vital and sample registrations, 1455 surveys and censuses, and 150 other sources, and to generate age-specific fertility rates (ASFRs) for 5-year age groups from age 10 years to 54 years. ASFRs were summed across age groups to produce estimates of total fertility rate (TFR). Livebirths were calculated by multiplying ASFR and age-specific female population, then summing across ages 10–54 years. To forecast future fertility up to 2100, our Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) forecasting model was based on projections of completed cohort fertility at age 50 years (CCF50; the average number of children born over time to females from a specified birth cohort), which yields more stable and accurate measures of fertility than directly modelling TFR. CCF50 was modelled using an ensemble approach in which three sub-models (with two, three, and four covariates variously consisting of female educational attainment, contraceptive met need, population density in habitable areas, and under-5 mortality) were given equal weights, and analyses were conducted utilising the MR-BRT (meta-regression—Bayesian, regularised, trimmed) tool. To capture time-series trends in CCF50 not explained by these covariates, we used a first-order autoregressive model on the residual term. CCF50 as a proportion of each 5-year ASFR was predicted using a linear mixed-effects model with fixed-effects covariates (female educational attainment and contraceptive met need) and random intercepts for geographical regions. Projected TFRs were then computed for each calendar year as the sum of single-year ASFRs across age groups. The reference forecast is our estimate of the most likely fertility future given the model, past fertility, forecasts of covariates, and historical relationships between covariates and fertility. We additionally produced forecasts for multiple alternative scenarios in each location: the UN Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) for education is achieved by 2030; the contraceptive met need SDG is achieved by 2030; pro-natal policies are enacted to create supportive environments for those who give birth; and the previous three scenarios combined. Uncertainty from past data inputs and model estimation was propagated throughout analyses by taking 1000 draws for past and present fertility estimates and 500 draws for future forecasts from the estimated distribution for each metric, with 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs) given as the 2·5 and 97·5 percentiles of the draws. To evaluate the forecasting performance of our model and others, we computed skill values—a metric assessing gain in forecasting accuracy—by comparing predicted versus observed ASFRs from the past 15 years (2007–21). A positive skill metric indicates that the model being evaluated performs better than the baseline model (here, a simplified model holding 2007 values constant in the future), and a negative metric indicates that the evaluated model performs worse than baseline. Findings: During the period from 1950 to 2021, global TFR more than halved, from 4·84 (95% UI 4·63–5·06) to 2·23 (2·09–2·38). Global annual livebirths peaked in 2016 at 142 million (95% UI 137–147), declining to 129 million (121–138) in 2021. Fertility rates declined in all countries and territories since 1950, with TFR remaining above 2·1—canonically considered replacement-level fertility—in 94 (46·1%) countries and territories in 2021. This included 44 of 46 countries in sub-Saharan Africa, which was the super-region with the largest share of livebirths in 2021 (29·2% [28·7–29·6]). 47 countries and territories in which lowest estimated fertility between 1950 and 2021 was below replacement experienced one or more subsequent years with higher fertility; only three of these locations rebounded above replacement levels. Future fertility rates were projected to continue to decline worldwide, reaching a global TFR of 1·83 (1·59–2·08) in 2050 and 1·59 (1·25–1·96) in 2100 under the reference scenario. The number of countries and territories with fertility rates remaining above replacement was forecast to be 49 (24·0%) in 2050 and only six (2·9%) in 2100, with three of these six countries included in the 2021 World Bank-defined low-income group, all located in the GBD super-region of sub-Saharan Africa. The proportion of livebirths occurring in sub-Saharan Africa was forecast to increase to more than half of the world's livebirths in 2100, to 41·3% (39·6–43·1) in 2050 and 54·3% (47·1–59·5) in 2100. The share of livebirths was projected to decline between 2021 and 2100 in most of the six other super-regions—decreasing, for example, in south Asia from 24·8% (23·7–25·8) in 2021 to 16·7% (14·3–19·1) in 2050 and 7·1% (4·4–10·1) in 2100—but was forecast to increase modestly in the north Africa and Middle East and high-income super-regions. Forecast estimates for the alternative combined scenario suggest that meeting SDG targets for education and contraceptive met need, as well as implementing pro-natal policies, would result in global TFRs of 1·65 (1·40–1·92) in 2050 and 1·62 (1·35–1·95) in 2100. The forecasting skill metric values for the IHME model were positive across all age groups, indicating that the model is better than the constant prediction. Interpretation: Fertility is declining globally, with rates in more than half of all countries and territories in 2021 below replacement level. Trends since 2000 show considerable heterogeneity in the steepness of declines, and only a small number of countries experienced even a slight fertility rebound after their lowest observed rate, with none reaching replacement level. Additionally, the distribution of livebirths across the globe is shifting, with a greater proportion occurring in the lowest-income countries. Future fertility rates will continue to decline worldwide and will remain low even under successful implementation of pro-natal policies. These changes will have far-reaching economic and societal consequences due to ageing populations and declining workforces in higher-income countries, combined with an increasing share of livebirths among the already poorest regions of the world. Funding: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation

Global, regional, and national burden of disorders affecting the nervous system, 1990–2021: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

Background: Disorders affecting the nervous system are diverse and include neurodevelopmental disorders, late-life neurodegeneration, and newly emergent conditions, such as cognitive impairment following COVID-19. Previous publications from the Global Burden of Disease, Injuries, and Risk Factor Study estimated the burden of 15 neurological conditions in 2015 and 2016, but these analyses did not include neurodevelopmental disorders, as defined by the International Classification of Diseases (ICD)-11, or a subset of cases of congenital, neonatal, and infectious conditions that cause neurological damage. Here, we estimate nervous system health loss caused by 37 unique conditions and their associated risk factors globally, regionally, and nationally from 1990 to 2021. Methods: We estimated mortality, prevalence, years lived with disability (YLDs), years of life lost (YLLs), and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), with corresponding 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs), by age and sex in 204 countries and territories, from 1990 to 2021. We included morbidity and deaths due to neurological conditions, for which health loss is directly due to damage to the CNS or peripheral nervous system. We also isolated neurological health loss from conditions for which nervous system morbidity is a consequence, but not the primary feature, including a subset of congenital conditions (ie, chromosomal anomalies and congenital birth defects), neonatal conditions (ie, jaundice, preterm birth, and sepsis), infectious diseases (ie, COVID-19, cystic echinococcosis, malaria, syphilis, and Zika virus disease), and diabetic neuropathy. By conducting a sequela-level analysis of the health outcomes for these conditions, only cases where nervous system damage occurred were included, and YLDs were recalculated to isolate the non-fatal burden directly attributable to nervous system health loss. A comorbidity correction was used to calculate total prevalence of all conditions that affect the nervous system combined. Findings: Globally, the 37 conditions affecting the nervous system were collectively ranked as the leading group cause of DALYs in 2021 (443 million, 95% UI 378–521), affecting 3·40 billion (3·20–3·62) individuals (43·1%, 40·5–45·9 of the global population); global DALY counts attributed to these conditions increased by 18·2% (8·7–26·7) between 1990 and 2021. Age-standardised rates of deaths per 100 000 people attributed to these conditions decreased from 1990 to 2021 by 33·6% (27·6–38·8), and age-standardised rates of DALYs attributed to these conditions decreased by 27·0% (21·5–32·4). Age-standardised prevalence was almost stable, with a change of 1·5% (0·7–2·4). The ten conditions with the highest age-standardised DALYs in 2021 were stroke, neonatal encephalopathy, migraine, Alzheimer's disease and other dementias, diabetic neuropathy, meningitis, epilepsy, neurological complications due to preterm birth, autism spectrum disorder, and nervous system cancer. Interpretation: As the leading cause of overall disease burden in the world, with increasing global DALY counts, effective prevention, treatment, and rehabilitation strategies for disorders affecting the nervous system are needed. Funding: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation

Calibration of the cloud and aerosol spectrometer for coal dust composition and morphology

The cloud and aerosol spectrometer (CAS) was calibrated to enable CAS sizing of coal dust for studies on flammable dust control. Coal dust sizes were determined by light-scattering theories for irregular particles that account for particle composition and morphology in computing coal dust diameters. Coal dust size computations were compared with test dust that was generated by cyclone separation and air-jet sieving and characterized by aerodynamic particle sizer (APS) and computer-controlled scanning electron microscopy (CCSEM) measurements. For test dust in the range of 0.5–32 µm, coal dust size distributions were consistent with cyclone-separated and sieve-segregated sizes. For the 3–20 µm size range, the coal dust size distribution had a mass median diameter that was 14% larger than that of the APS. This difference was reasonable considering that the basic calibration for glass spheres had 13% uncertainty. For the 20–32 µm and 32–45 µm test dusts, mass median diameters differed from CCSEM measurements by only 4% and 5%, respectively. Overall, the results suggest agreement between test dust sizes and computations for coal dust. Alternatively, using conventional Mie theory computations for spheres, coal dust mass median diameters were 35% and 40% larger than APS and CCSEM measurements, respectively.Peer reviewe