Risk-Neutral Pricing and Hedging of In-Play Football Bets

A risk-neutral valuation framework is developed for pricing and hedging in-play football bets based on modelling scores by independent Poisson processes with constant intensities. The Fundamental Theorems of Asset Pricing are applied to this set-up which enables us to derive novel arbitrage-free valuation formulæ for contracts currently traded in the market. We also describe how to calibrate the model to the market and how trades can be replicated and hedged

Reducing Prediction volatility in the surgical workflow recognition of endoscopic pituitary surgery

PURPOSE: Workflow recognition can aid surgeons before an operation when used as a training tool, during an operation by increasing operating room efficiency, and after an operation in the completion of operation notes. Although several methods have been applied to this task, they have been tested on few surgical datasets. Therefore, their generalisability is not well tested, particularly for surgical approaches utilising smaller working spaces which are susceptible to occlusion and necessitate frequent withdrawal of the endoscope. This leads to rapidly changing predictions, which reduces the clinical confidence of the methods, and hence limits their suitability for clinical translation. METHODS: Firstly, the optimal neural network is found using established methods, using endoscopic pituitary surgery as an exemplar. Then, prediction volatility is formally defined as a new evaluation metric as a proxy for uncertainty, and two temporal smoothing functions are created. The first (modal, Mn) mode-averages over the previous n predictions, and the second (threshold, Tn) ensures a class is only changed after being continuously predicted for n predictions. Both functions are independently applied to the predictions of the optimal network. RESULTS: The methods are evaluated on a 50-video dataset using fivefold cross-validation, and the optimised evaluation metric is weighted-F1 score. The optimal model is ResNet-50+LSTM achieving 0.84 in 3-phase classification and 0.74 in 7-step classification. Applying threshold smoothing further improves these results, achieving 0.86 in 3-phase classification, and 0.75 in 7-step classification, while also drastically reducing the prediction volatility. CONCLUSION: The results confirm the established methods generalise to endoscopic pituitary surgery, and show simple temporal smoothing not only reduces prediction volatility, but actively improves performance

Scanning the internet for liveness

Internet-wide scanning depends on a notion of liveness: does a target IP address respond to a probe packet? However, the interpretation of such responses, or lack of them, is nuanced and depends on multiple factors, including: how we probed, how different protocols in the network stack interact, the presence of filtering policies near the target, and temporal churn in IP responsiveness. Although often neglected, these factors can significantly affect the results of active measurement studies. We develop a taxonomy of liveness which we employ to develop a method to perform concurrent IPv4 scans using ICMP, five TCP-based, and two UDP-based protocols, comprehensively capturing all responses to our probes, including negative and cross-layer responses. Leveraging our methodology, we present a systematic analysis of liveness and how it manifests in active scanning campaigns, yielding practical insights and methodological improvements for the design and the execution of active Internet measurement studies.</jats:p

Substantial and sustained reduction in under-5 mortality, diarrhea, and pneumonia in Oshikhandass, Pakistan : Evidence from two longitudinal cohort studies 15 years apart

Funding Information: Study 1 was funded through the Applied Diarrheal Disease Research Program at Harvard Institute for International Development with a grant from USAID (Project 936–5952, Cooperative Agreement # DPE-5952-A-00-5073-00), and the Aga Khan Health Service, Northern Areas and Chitral, Pakistan. Study 2 was funded by the Pakistan US S&T Cooperative Agreement between the Pakistan Higher Education Commission (HEC) (No.4–421/PAK-US/HEC/2010/955, grant to the Karakoram International University) and US National Academies of Science (Grant Number PGA-P211012 from NAS to the Fogarty International Center). The funding bodies had no role in the design of the study, data collection, analysis, interpretation, or writing of the manuscript. Publisher Copyright: © 2020 The Author(s).Peer reviewedPublisher PD

Association of Patients’ Epidemiological Characteristics and Comorbidities with Severity and Related Mortality Risk of SARS-CoV-2 Infection: Results of an Umbrella Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis

The objective of this study was to assess the association between patients’ epidemiological characteristics and comorbidities with SARS-CoV-2 infection severity and related mortality risk. An umbrella systematic review, including a meta-analysis examining the association between patients’ underlying conditions and severity (defined as need for hospitalization) and mortality of COVID-19, was performed. Studies were included if they reported pooled risk estimates of at least three underlying determinants for hospitalization, critical disease (ICU admission, mechanical ventilation), and hospital mortality in patients diagnosed with SARS-CoV-2 infection. Evidence was summarized as pooled odds ratios (pOR) for disease outcomes with 95% confidence intervals (95% CI). Sixteen systematic reviews investigating the possible associations of comorbidities with severity or death from COVID-19 disease were included. Hospitalization was associated with age &gt; 60 years (pOR 3.50; 95% CI 2.97–4.36), smoking habit (pOR 3.50; 95% CI 2.97–4.36), and chronic pulmonary disease (pOR 2.94; 95% CI 2.14–4.04). Chronic pulmonary disease (pOR 2.82; 95% CI 1.92–4.14), cerebrovascular disease (pOR 2.74; 95% CI 1.59–4.74), and cardiovascular disease (pOR 2.44; 95% CI 1.97–3.01) were likely to be associated with increased risk of critical COVID-19. The highest risk of mortality was associated with cardiovascular disease (pOR 3.59; 95% CI 2.83–4.56), cerebrovascular disease (pOR 3.11; 95% CI 2.35–4.11), and chronic renal disease (pOR 3.02; 95% CI 2.61–3.49). In conclusion, this umbrella systematic review provides a comprehensive summary of meta-analyses examining the impact of patients’ characteristics on COVID-19 outcomes. Elderly patients and those cardiovascular, cerebrovascular, and chronic renal disease should be prioritized for pre-exposure and post-exposure prophylaxis and early treatment

Electrocardiographic abnormalities in Chagas disease in the general population: A systematic review and meta-analysis.

BACKGROUND: Chagas disease (CD) is a major public health concern in Latin America and a potentially serious emerging threat in non-endemic countries. Although the association between CD and cardiac abnormalities is widely reported, study design diversity, sample size and quality challenge the information, calling for its update and synthesis, which would be very useful and relevant for physicians in non-endemic countries where health care implications of CD are real and neglected. We performed to systematically review and meta-analyze population-based studies that compared prevalence of overall and specific ECG abnormalities between CD and non-CD participants in the general population. METHODS: Six databases (EMBASE, Ovid Medline, Web of Science, Cochrane Central, Google Scholar and Lilacs) were searched systematically. Observational studies were included. Odds ratios (OR) were computed using random-effects model. RESULTS: Forty-nine studies were selected, including 34,023(12,276 CD and 21,747 non-CD). Prevalence of overall ECG abnormalities was higher in participants with CD (40.1%; 95%CIs=39.2-41.0) compared to non-CD (24.1%; 95%CIs=23.5-24.7) (OR=2.78; 95%CIs=2.37-3.26). Among specific ECG abnormalities, prevalence of complete right bundle branch block (RBBB) (OR=4.60; 95%CIs=2.97-7.11), left anterior fascicular block (LAFB) (OR=1.60; 95%CIs=1.21-2.13), combination of complete RBBB/LAFB (OR=3.34; 95%CIs=1.76-6.35), first-degree atrioventricular block (A-V B) (OR=1.71; 95%CIs=1.25-2.33), atrial fibrillation (AF) or flutter (OR=2.11; 95%CIs=1.40-3.19) and ventricular extrasystoles (VE) (OR=1.62; 95%CIs=1.14-2.30) was higher in CD compared to non-CD participants. CONCLUSIONS: This systematic review and meta-analysis provides an update and synthesis in this field. This research of observational studies indicates a significant excess in prevalence of ECG abnormalities (40.1%) related to T. cruzi infection in the general population from Chagas endemic regions, being the most common ventricular (RBBB and LAFB), and A-V B (first-degree) node conduction abnormalities as well as arrhythmias (AF or flutter and VE). Also, prevalence of ECG alterations in children was similar to that in adults and suggests earlier onset of cardiac disease

Guidelines on experimental methods to assess mitochondrial dysfunction in cellular models of neurodegenerative diseases

Neurodegenerative diseases are a spectrum of chronic, debilitating disorders characterised by the progressive degeneration and death of neurons. Mitochondrial dysfunction has been implicated in most neurodegenerative diseases, but in many instances it is unclear whether such dysfunction is a cause or an effect of the underlying pathology, and whether it represents a viable therapeutic target. It is therefore imperative to utilise and optimise cellular models and experimental techniques appropriate to determine the contribution of mitochondrial dysfunction to neurodegenerative disease phenotypes. In this consensus article, we collate details on and discuss pitfalls of existing experimental approaches to assess mitochondrial function in in vitro cellular models of neurodegenerative diseases, including specific protocols for the measurement of oxygen consumption rate in primary neuron cultures, and single-neuron, time-lapse fluorescence imaging of the mitochondrial membrane potential and mitochondrial NAD(P)H. As part of the Cellular Bioenergetics of Neurodegenerative Diseases (CeBioND) consortium ( www.cebiond.org ), we are performing cross-disease analyses to identify common and distinct molecular mechanisms involved in mitochondrial bioenergetic dysfunction in cellular models of Alzheimer's, Parkinson's, and Huntington's diseases. Here we provide detailed guidelines and protocols as standardised across the five collaborating laboratories of the CeBioND consortium, with additional contributions from other experts in the field