A method for merging flow-dependent forecast error statistics from an ensemble with static statistics for use in high resolution variational data assimilation

The background error covariance matrix, B, is often used in variational data assimilation for numerical weather prediction as a static and hence poor approximation to the fully dynamic forecast error covariance matrix, Pf. In this paper the concept of an Ensemble Reduced Rank Kalman Filter (EnRRKF) is outlined. In the EnRRKF the forecast error statistics in a subspace defined by an ensemble of states forecast by the dynamic model are found. These statistics are merged in a formal way with the static statistics, which apply in the remainder of the space. The combined statistics may then be used in a variational data assimilation setting. It is hoped that the nonlinear error growth of small-scale weather systems will be accurately captured by the EnRRKF, to produce accurate analyses and ultimately improved forecasts of extreme events

Oxygen Isotopes of Al-Rich Chondrules from Unequilibrated Ordinary Chondrites

Al-rich chondrules (ARCs) are a rare constituent of chondrites. They have relatively high bulk Al_2O_3 content (> 10 wt%), which is due to the presence of Al-rich phases, such as plagioclase, spinel, Al-rich glass etc. [1]. ARCs share some chemical and petrologic characteristics with Ca, Al-rich inclusions (CAis), and may represent a genetic link between ferromagnesian chondrules and CAis

Ensemble prediction for nowcasting with a convection-permitting model - II: forecast error statistics

A 24-member ensemble of 1-h high-resolution forecasts over the Southern United Kingdom is used to study short-range forecast error statistics. The initial conditions are found from perturbations from an ensemble transform Kalman filter. Forecasts from this system are assumed to lie within the bounds of forecast error of an operational forecast system. Although noisy, this system is capable of producing physically reasonable statistics which are analysed and compared to statistics implied from a variational assimilation system. The variances for temperature errors for instance show structures that reflect convective activity. Some variables, notably potential temperature and specific humidity perturbations, have autocorrelation functions that deviate from 3-D isotropy at the convective-scale (horizontal scales less than 10 km). Other variables, notably the velocity potential for horizontal divergence perturbations, maintain 3-D isotropy at all scales. Geostrophic and hydrostatic balances are studied by examining correlations between terms in the divergence and vertical momentum equations respectively. Both balances are found to decay as the horizontal scale decreases. It is estimated that geostrophic balance becomes less important at scales smaller than 75 km, and hydrostatic balance becomes less important at scales smaller than 35 km, although more work is required to validate these findings. The implications of these results for high-resolution data assimilation are discussed

The “ABC model”: a non-hydrostatic toy model for use in convective-scale data assimilation investigations

In developing methods for convective-scale data assimilation (DA) it is necessary to consider the full range of motions governed by the compressible Navier-Stokes equations (including non-hydrostatic and ageostrophic flow). These equations describe motion on a wide range of time-scales with non-linear coupling. For the purpose of developing new DA techniques that suit the convective-scale problem it is helpful to use so-called ‘toy models’ that are easy to run, and contain the same types of motion as the full equation set. Such a model needs to permit hydrostatic and geostrophic balance at large-scales, but to allow imbalance at small-scales, and in particular, it needs to exhibit intermittent convection-like behaviour. Existing ‘toy models’ are not always sufficient for investigating these issues. A simplified system of intermediate complexity derived from the Euler equations is presented, which supports dispersive gravity and acoustic modes. In this system the separation of time scales can be greatly reduced by changing the physical parameters. Unlike in existing toy models, this allows the acoustic modes to be treated explicitly, and hence inexpensively. In addition, the non-linear coupling induced by the equation of state is simplified. This means that the gravity and acoustic modes are less coupled than in conventional models. A vertical slice formulation is used which contains only dry dynamics. The model is shown to give physically reasonable results, and convective behaviour is generated by localised compressible effects. This model provides an affordable and flexible framework within which some of the complex issues of convective-scale DA can later be investigated. The model is called the “ABC model” after the three tunable parameters introduced: A (the pure gravity wave frequency), B (the modulation of the divergent term in the continuity equation), and C (defining the compressibility)

Doing gender locally: The importance of ‘place’ in understanding marginalised masculinities and young men’s transitions to ‘safe’ and successful futures

Observable anxieties have been developing about the position of boys and young men in contemporary society in recent years. This is expressed as a crisis of masculinity, in which place is often implicitly implicated, but is rarely considered for its role in the shaping of young men’s practices, trajectories and aspirations. Drawing on research conducted with young people who accessed a range of social care support services, this article argues that transition means different things for young men in different locales and that local definitions of masculinity are required to better understand young men’s lives and the opportunities available to them. The authors argue that home life, street life, individual neighbourhoods, regions and nations all shaped the young men’s identities and the practices they (and the staff working with them) drew on in order to create successful futures and ‘safe’ forms of masculinity. It is suggested that this place-based approach has the potential to re-shape the ‘crisis’ discourse surrounding masculinity and the anxieties associated with young men

The early and late-time spectral and temporal evolution of GRB 050716

We report on a comprehensive set of observations of Gamma Ray Burst 050716, detected by the Swift satellite and subsequently followed-up rapidly in X-ray, optical and near infra-red wavebands. The prompt emission is typical of long-duration bursts, with two peaks in a time interval of T90 = 68 seconds (15 - 350 keV). The prompt emission continues at lower flux levels in the X-ray band, where several smaller flares can be seen, on top of a decaying light curve that exhibits an apparent break around 220 seconds post trigger. This temporal break is roughly coincident with a spectral break. The latter can be related to the extrapolated evolution of the break energy in the prompt gamma-ray emission, and is possibly the manifestation of the peak flux break frequency of the internal shock passing through the observing band. A possible 3 sigma change in the X-ray absorption column is also seen during this time. The late-time afterglow behaviour is relatively standard, with an electron distribution power-law index of p = 2 there is no noticable temporal break out to at least 10 days. The broad-band optical/nIR to X-ray spectrum indicates a redshift of z ~> 2 for this burst, with a host-galaxy extinction value of E(B-V) ~ 0.7 that prefers an SMC-like extinction curve.Comment: Accepted to MNRAS. 8 pages, 5 figure

IT Value in Public Administrations: a Model Proposal for E-Procurement

Recent studies have affirmed the necessity of a discontinuity in the method of investigating the value produced in organisations by IT. Existing studies have in common a prevailing (when not exclusive) attention paid to the private sector, as testified by the frequent use of income or financial indicators to measure benefits. These approaches however cannot be directly applied to public utility organisations like public administrations. Taking into account this scenario, the present exploratory work looks at the analysis of IT investments in the public sector by identifying a viable approach to research in this domain. To move towards this objective, procurement management has been taken as the field to be observed, and an Italian publich Local Healthcare Agency which has managed several e-procurement projects has been analysed. This case represents a valuable context for examination and discussion because the outcomes of each project were evaluated in details. A riche IT Value Model devoted to the private secotr has been adopted and discussed, and later some resulting adaptations are suggested, together with some hints and limitations.Recent studies have affirmed the necessity of a discontinuity in the method of investigating the value produced in organisations by IT. Existing studies have in common a prevailing (when not exclusive) attention paid to the private sector, as testified by the frequent use of income or financial indicators to measure benefits. These approaches however cannot be directly applied to public utility organisations like public administrations. Taking into account this scenario, the present exploratory work looks at the analysis of IT investments in the public sector by identifying a viable approach to research in this domain. To move towards this objective, procurement management has been taken as the field to be observed, and an Italian publich Local Healthcare Agency which has managed several e-procurement projects has been analysed. This case represents a valuable context for examination and discussion because the outcomes of each project were evaluated in details. A riche IT Value Model devoted to the private secotr has been adopted and discussed, and later some resulting adaptations are suggested, together with some hints and limitations.Monograph's chapter