Probabilistic load forecasting for building energy models

In the current energy context of intelligent buildings and smart grids, the use of load forecasting to predict future building energy performance is becoming increasingly relevant. The prediction accuracy is directly influenced by input uncertainties such as the weather forecast, and its impact must be considered. Traditional load forecasting provides a single expected value for the predicted load and cannot properly incorporate the effect of these uncertainties. This research presents a methodology that calculates the probabilistic load forecast while accounting for the inherent uncertainty in forecast weather data. In the recent years, the probabilistic load forecasting approach has increased in importance in the literature but it is mostly focused on black-box models which do not allow performance evaluation of specific components of envelope, HVAC systems, etc. This research fills this gap using a white-box model, a building energy model (BEM) developed in EnergyPlus, to provide the probabilistic load forecast. Through a Gaussian kernel density estimation (KDE), the procedure converts the point load forecast provided by the BEM into a probabilistic load forecast based on historical data, which is provided by the building’s indoor and outdoor monitoring system. An hourly map of the uncertainty of the load forecast due to the weather forecast is generated with different prediction intervals. The map provides an overview of different prediction intervals for each hour, along with the probability that the load forecast error is less than a certain value. This map can then be applied to the forecast load that is provided by the BEM by applying the prediction intervals with their associated probabilities to its outputs. The methodology was implemented and evaluated in a real school building in Denmark. The results show that the percentage of the real values that are covered by the prediction intervals for the testing month is greater than the confidence level (80%), even when a small amount of data are used for the creation of the uncertainty map; therefore, the proposed method is appropriate for predicting the probabilistic expected error in load forecasting due to the use of weather forecast data

Correlative study on impaired prostaglandin E2 regulation in EAT and maladaptive cardiac remodeling via EPAC2 and ST2 signaling in overweight CVD subjects

There is recent evidence that the dysfunctional responses of a peculiar visceral fat deposit known as epicardial adipose tissue (EAT) can directly promote cardiac enlargement in the case of obesity. Here, we observed a newer molecular pattern associated with LV dysfunction mediated by prostaglandin E2 (PGE(2)) deregulation in EAT in a cardiovascular disease (CVD) population. A series of 33 overweight CVD males were enrolled and their EAT thickness, LV mass, and volumes were measured by echocardiography. Blood, plasma, EAT, and SAT biopsies were collected for molecular and proteomic assays. Our data show that PGE(2) biosynthetic enzyme (PTGES-2) correlates with echocardiographic parameters of LV enlargement: LV diameters, LV end diastolic volume, and LV masses. Moreover, PTGES-2 is directly associated with EPAC2 gene (r = 0.70, p < 0.0001), known as a molecular inducer of ST2/IL-33 mediators involved in maladaptive heart remodelling. Furthermore, PGE(2) receptor 3 (PTEGER3) results are downregulated and its expression is inversely associated with ST2/IL-33 expression. Contrarily, PGE(2) receptor 4 (PTGER4) is upregulated in EAT and directly correlates with ST2 molecular expression. Our data suggest that excessive body fatness can shift the EAT transcriptome to a pro-tissue remodelling profile, may be driven by PGE(2) deregulation, with consequent promotion of EPAC2 and ST2 signalling

Exercise-induced mitral regurgitation and right ventricle to pulmonary circulation uncoupling across the heart failure phenotypes

Exercise-induced mitral regurgitation (Ex-MR) is one of the mechanisms that contribute to reduced functional capacity in heart failure (HF). Its prevalence is not well defined across different HF subtypes. The aim of the present study was to describe functional phenotypes and cardiac response to exercise in HFrEF, HFmrEF, and HFpEF, according to Ex-MR prevalence. A total of 218 patients with HF [146 men, 68 (59–78) yr], 137 HFrEF, 41 HFmrEF, 40 HFpEF, and 23 controls were tested with cardiopulmonary exercise test combined with exercise echocardiography. Ex-MR was defined as development of at least moderate (≥2+/4+) regurgitation during exercise. Ex-MR was highly prevalent in the overall population (52%) although differed in the subgroups as follows: 82/137 (60%) in HFrEF, 17/41 (41%) in HFmrEF, and 14/40 (35%) in HFpEF (P < 0.05). Ex-MR was associated with a high rate of ventilation (VE) to carbon dioxide production (VCO2) in all HF subtypes [31.2 (26.6–35.6) vs. 33.4 (29.6–40.5), P = 0.004; 28.1 (24.5–31.9) vs. 34.4 (28.2–36.7), P = 0.01; 28.8 (26.6–32.4) vs. 32.2 (29.2–36.7), P = 0.01] and with lower peak VO2 in HFrEF and HFmrEF. Exercise right ventricle to pulmonary circulation (RV-PC) uncoupling was observed in HFrEF and HFpEF patients with Ex-MR [peak TAPSE/SPAP: HFrEF 0.40 (0.30–0.57) vs. 0.29 (0.23–0.39), P = 0.006; HFpEF 0.44 (0.28–0.62) vs. 0.31 (0.27–0.33), P = 0.05]. HFpEF with Ex-MR showed a distinct phenotype characterized by better chronotropic reserve and peripheral O2 extraction

Internship in the MUPE: bringing projects to life

RESUMEN: El MUPE (Museo Paleontológico de Elche) es el único museo con contenido exclusivamente paleontológico de la provincia de Alicante (España). Además de sus funciones de investigación, conservación y difusión del patrimonio paleontológico, juega un papel importante en la formación del alumnado de la Universidad de Alicante a través de prácticas de empresa. El MUPE cuenta con dos plantas y la superior está dedicada, principalmente, a los yacimientos de la provincia de Alicante; a pesar de la importancia de estas colecciones, la exposición requiere cambios en su hilo argumental y en las propuestas didácticas para adaptarse a las nuevas necesidades de la sociedad. Aquí presentamos el resultado del trabajo museográfico realizado durante las prácticas de empresa de 2018 para actualizar y mejorar la exposición dedicada a la paleontología alicantina. Un trabajo que ha dado lugar al programa museológico y museográfico del MUPE.RESUMO: O MUPE (Museu Paleontológico de Elche) é o único museu dedicado exclusivamente à paleontologia na região de Alicante (Espanha). Além das funções de investigação, conservação e divulgação do património paleontológico, desempenha um papel importante na formação dos alunos e alunas da Universidade de Alicante pela possibilidade de estagiar no museu. O MUPE está organizado em dois andares, o superior está dedicado, essencialmente, às jazidas da região de Alicante; apesar da importância das coleções, o argumento da exposição precisa de ser alterado, bem como as propostas didáticas existentes, de forma a adaptar se às novas necessidades da sociedade. Apresentamos aqui o resultado do trabalho museográfico realizado durante o estágio de 2018 para atualizar e melhorar a exposição dedicada à paleontologia alicantina. Um trabalho que deu lugar ao programa museológico e museográfico do MUPE.ABSTRACT: The MUPE (Palaeontological Museum of Elche) is the only museum completely dedicated to palaeontology in the province of Alicante (Spain). Not only does it play an important role in research, conservation, and dissemination of the palaeontological heritage, but it also enables the training of students from the University of Alicante by an internship. The MUPE has two floors, the upper one is dedicated, mainly, to sites of the province of Alicante; despite having highly important collections, this exhibition requires some changes in its script and in their didactic proposals to reach the new needs of society. We present here the result of the museographic work conducted during the internship in 2018 to update and improve the exhibition about the palaeontology from Alicante. A work which leads to the MUPE museological and museographic programme.info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersio

Regulated on activation, normal-T cell expressed and secreted (RANTES/CCL5) levels: an association with epicardial visceral fat thickness

Introduction: Epicardial adipose tissue (EAT), accumulated around the heart, is considered an index of visceral adiposity and a promising indicator of high cardio-metabolic risk. Evidences showing that EAT is a metabolically active organ and a source of inflammatory adipo-chemocytokines suggest a condition of chronic inflammation in this small cardiac fat depot. However, the potential links between cardiac adiposity and circulating levels of inflammatory adipo-chemokines, as markers of subclinical inflammation, are not completely understood. Our aim is to evaluate whether cardiac adiposity, measured as EAT thickness, is related to Regulated on activation, Normal T Cell Expressed and Secreted (RANTES/CCL5) levels, in obese patients. Methods: EAT thickness (meauserd by echocardiography, on the free wall of right ventricle), RANTES/CCL5 and other inflammatory markers (by ELISA kit) were measured in 36 women with uncomplicated obesity (OB) (BMI 41.6\ub15.6 kg/m2) and 15 normal-weight controls. Abdominal visceral adipose tissue (VAT) and subcutaneous adipose tissue (SAT) were assessed by computed tomography (CT). Results: OB patients had thicker EAT (6.8\ub10.9 vs. 1.3\ub10.3 mm, p<0.0001) (Fig.1) and higher RANTES/CCL5 levels (2468.9\ub1745.5 vs. 1272.1\ub1413.7 pg/ml, p<0.03) than controls (Fig. 2). The EAT thickness positively correlated with RANTES/CCL5 concentrations (r2=0.65, p<0.001) (Fig.3). Moreover, EAT thickness and RANTES/CCL5 concentration were directly correlated with indices of fat distribution (VAT, VAT/SAT and waist, p<0.001 for all). Notably, when using multiple regression analysis, RANTES/CCL5 levels most closely correlated with EAT thickness (t=3.93) and VAT areas (t=3.77), while other indices of fat distribution did not enter the model. Conclusions: EAT thickness, an indicator of cardiac adiposity, may be related to inflammatory adipo-chemokines in visceral-obese patients and might be used as a reliable marker of visceral adiposity. The elevated RANTES/CCL5 levels, contributing to the pro-inflammatory state, may also lead to cardio-metabolic disorders

Darunavir-cobicistat-emtricitabine-tenofovir alafenamide: safety and efficacy of a protease inhibitor in the modern era

A fixed-dose combination consisting of darunavir (Drv), cobicistat (Cobi), emtricitabine (2',3'-dideoxy-5-fluoro-3'-thiacytidine [FTC]), and tenofovir alafenamide (Taf) has been recently approved by the European Medicines Agency for the treatment of HIV infection, and is the first ever protease-inhibitor-based single-tablet regimen. This article provides a detailed description of its pharmacokinetic, efficacy, and safety profile. The pharmacokinetics of single compounds were analyzed, with a special focus on contrasts between Drv/Cobi and Drv/ritonavir (Rtv). When comparing Cobi and Rtv, multiple interactions must be taken into account: in comparison to Rtv, Cobi is a more selective CYP3A4 inhibitor and has no clinical effect on other isoenzymes inhibited by Rtv (eg, 2C8 and 2C9). Moreover, unlike Cobi, Rtv shows in vivo induction activity on some CYP isoenzymes (eg, 1A2, 2C19, 2C8, 2C9, and 2B6), glucuronyltransferases (eg, UGT1A4), and Pgp. Drv-Cobi-FTC-Taf has recently been demonstrated to be of equal efficacy to Drv-Rtv and other protease inhibitors in both experienced (EMERALD study) and na\uefve (AMBER study) patients. Moreover, kidney and bone safety profiles have been shown to be good, as has central nervous system tolerance. Total cholesterol:low-density-lipoprotein cholesterol and total cholesterol:high-density-lipoprotein cholesterol ratios are generally high in Drv-Cobi-FTC-Taf vs Rtv-Drv-FTC + tenofovir disoproxil fumarate. An unlikely role of Drv in influencing cardiovascular risk in HIV infection has also been reported. Kidney safety profile is influenced by Cobi, with an increase in creatinine plasma concentration of 0.05-0.1 mg/dL and a parallel glomerular filtration-rate reduction of 10 mL/min within the first 4 weeks after Cobi introduction, which remains stable during treatment. Bone and central nervous system safety profiles were found to be good in randomized clinical trials of both experienced and na\uefve patients. The efficacy and safety of Drv/Cobi/FTC/Taf are comparable to other drug regimens recommended for HIV treatment

Fungi in libraries: An aerometric survey

The possible role of fungi as allergic contaminants in book collections has been investigated in eleven University of Michigan Libraries. Air in the stacks of each of the eleven libraries was sampled on three occasions (2 or 4–10 minute samples on each occasion) with Andersen Volumetric viable particle samplers. Books were handled during sampling in half the samples each day. In addition on each sampling day a location in the same building away from book storage and an outdoor location were sampled. Library spore levels were generally low. Outdoor levels consistently exceeded indoor levels. Air conditioned (AC) libraries had lower spore levels and indoor/outdoor ratios than conventionally ventilated (CV) libraries. Handling books during sampling increased spore counts in all libraries, but strikingly in CV libraries. Fungus taxa recovered were similar to those encountered in domestic interiors and outside locations in our area. The overall low spore levels and lack of a distinctive library mycoflora suggest that other sources should be sought for librarybased respiratory symptoms.Peer Reviewedhttp://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/43292/1/11046_2004_Article_BF00440963.pd

Soluble receptor for advanced glycation end products : a protective molecule against intramyocardial lipid accumulation in obese Zucker rats?

Most of the obesity-related complications are due to ectopic fat accumulation. Recently, the activation of the cell-surface receptor for advanced glycation end products (RAGE) has been associated with lipid accumulation in different organs. Nevertheless, the role of RAGE and sRAGE, the soluble form that prevents ligands to activate RAGE, in intramyocardial lipid accumulation is presently unknown. To this aim, we analyzed whether, in obesity, intramyocardial lipid accumulation and lipid metabolism-related transcriptome are related to RAGE and sRAGE. Heart and serum samples were collected from 10 lean (L) and 10 obese (OB) Zucker rats. Oil red staining was used to detect lipids on frozen heart sections. The lipid metabolism-related transcriptome (84 genes) was analyzed by a specific PCR array. Heart RAGE expression was explored by real-time RT-PCR and Western blot analyses. Serum levels of sRAGE (total and endogenous secretory form (esRAGE)) were quantified by ELISA. Genes promoting fatty acid transport, activation, and oxidation in mitochondria/peroxisomes were upregulated in OB hearts. Intramyocardial lipid content did not differ between OB and L rats, as well as RAGE expression. A slight increase in epicardial adipose tissue was observed in OB hearts. Total sRAGE and esRAGE concentrations were significantly higher in OB rats. sRAGE may protect against obesity-induced intramyocardial lipid accumulation by preventing RAGE hyperexpression, therefore allowing lipids to be metabolized. EAT also played a protective role by working as a buffering system that protects the myocardium against exposure to excessively high levels of fatty acids. These observations reinforce the potential role of RAGE pathway as an interesting therapeutic target for obesity-related complications, at least at the cardiovascular level