The Impact of New Technologies on the Environment

One of the objectives of IIASA's Study "Future Environments for Europe: Some Implications of Alternative Development Paths" is to characterize the large-scale and long-term environmental transformations that could be associated with plausible scenarios of Europe's socio-economic development over the next century. The purpose of this task is to help foresee potentially serious environmental problems before they actually occur. This Working Paper is an important contribution toward that goal. It is becoming increasingly clear that the linkages between technologies and their long-term effects on the environment require more careful attention and forethought than has been the case in the past. The socio-economic benefits of technologies are usually proportional to their scale of application, and the rewards are reaped almost instantaneously. The problem, however, is that the "disbenefits", in terms of ecological degradation, often very nonlinearly with the scale of application, and are manifested on relatively slow time scales. The danger of this syndrome is that the technology may tend to become entrenched over time, making it difficult for adjustment or change by the time the disbenefits become manifest. Therefore, this timely paper should be of interest to all those who ponder the long-term trade-offs between technological development and environmental degradation

Using the present to interpret the past: the role of ethnographic studies in Andean archaeology

Within Andean research it is common to use ethnographic analogies to aid the interpretation of archaeological remains, and ethnographers and archaeologists have developed shared research in technology, material culture and material practice. Although most of this research does not follow the detailed recording methods of spatial patterning envisioned in earlier formulations of ethnoarchaeology, it has had a profound effect on how archaeology in the region has been interpreted. This paper uses examples from the study of pottery production to address earlier debates about the use of ethnographic analogy, discusses the dangers of imposing an idealised or uniform vision of traditional Andean societies onto earlier periods (‘Lo Andino’) but stresses the benefits of combining ethnographic and archaeological research to explore continuities and changes in cultural practice and regional variations

Local heat transfer during reflux condensation at subatmospheric pressure and with and without non-condensable gases for power plant application

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Validation of a risk score identifying patients with acute pulmonary embolism, who are at low risk of clinical adverse outcome

A clinical predictive model that accurately identifies patients with pulmonary embolism who are at low risk of adverse medical outcomes may be useful for management decisions, such as outpatient treatment. We aimed to externally validate a previously derived prognostic score identifying emergency ward patients with acute pulmonary embolism at low risk of 3-month complications. One hundred and ninety-nine consecutive patients with proven pulmonary embolism were included from the emergency centres of three teaching and general hospitals. Adverse outcomes, such as death, major bleed, or recurrent venous thromboembolism, were recorded during a 3-month follow-up. We retrospectively computed the prognostic score for each patient and determined its predictive accuracy at different threshold values. The overall 3-month risk of adverse event after the diagnosis of pulmonary embolism was 9.5%. At a threshold of 2 points, eight patients with scores at or below the cut-off (5%; 95% CI 2.6-9.6) and 11 patients with scores above this cut-off (27.5%; 95% CI 16.1-42.8) presented a complication. The negative predictive value for an adverse out-come was 95.0% (95% CI 90.4-97.4). The receiver operating characteristic curve derived from the score distribution had an area of 0.77 (95% CI 0.65-0.89). This compared favourably with the characteristics of the derivation study. We conclude that the Geneva risk score has an acceptable predictive accuracy to identify patients with pulmonary embolism at low risk for 3-month adverse outcomes. Whether this score remains accurate and useful in clinical practice should be determined in a prospective multicentre validation study

Biphasic decline of CD4 cell count during scheduled treatment interruptions.(projet 356).

In 115 patients whose scheduled treatment interruptions (STI) lasted 24 weeks, the CD4 cell count declined by a median of 30 cells/ml/week during the first 4 weeks, compared with 3 cells/ml/week during the next 20 weeks. In multivariate regression, a pronounced early fall in CD4 cells correlated with a higher CD4 cell count at the start of STI, with more gain in CD4 cells during antiretroviral treatment preceding STI, and with a higher viral load at week 4