Design Characteristics Influence Performance of Clinical Prediction Rules in Validation: A Meta-Epidemiological Study

BACKGROUND: Many new clinical prediction rules are derived and validated. But the design and reporting quality of clinical prediction research has been less than optimal. We aimed to assess whether design characteristics of validation studies were associated with the overestimation of clinical prediction rules' performance. We also aimed to evaluate whether validation studies clearly reported important methodological characteristics. METHODS: Electronic databases were searched for systematic reviews of clinical prediction rule studies published between 2006 and 2010. Data were extracted from the eligible validation studies included in the systematic reviews. A meta-analytic meta-epidemiological approach was used to assess the influence of design characteristics on predictive performance. From each validation study, it was assessed whether 7 design and 7 reporting characteristics were properly described. RESULTS: A total of 287 validation studies of clinical prediction rule were collected from 15 systematic reviews (31 meta-analyses). Validation studies using case-control design produced a summary diagnostic odds ratio (DOR) 2.2 times (95% CI: 1.2-4.3) larger than validation studies using cohort design and unclear design. When differential verification was used, the summary DOR was overestimated by twofold (95% CI: 1.2 -3.1) compared to complete, partial and unclear verification. The summary RDOR of validation studies with inadequate sample size was 1.9 (95% CI: 1.2 -3.1) compared to studies with adequate sample size. Study site, reliability, and clinical prediction rule was adequately described in 10.1%, 9.4%, and 7.0% of validation studies respectively. CONCLUSION: Validation studies with design shortcomings may overestimate the performance of clinical prediction rules. The quality of reporting among studies validating clinical prediction rules needs to be improved

Seed Regeneration Potential of Canopy Gaps at Early Formation Stage in Temperate Secondary Forests, Northeast China

Promoting the seed regeneration potential of secondary forests undergoing gap disturbances is an important approach for achieving forest restoration and sustainable management. Seedling recruitment from seed banks strongly determines the seed regeneration potential, but the process is poorly understood in the gaps of secondary forests. The objectives of the present study were to evaluate the effects of gap size, seed availability, and environmental conditions on the seed regeneration potential in temperate secondary forests. It was found that gap formation could favor the invasion of more varieties of species in seed banks, but it also could speed up the turnover rate of seed banks leading to lower seed densities. Seeds of the dominant species, Fraxinus rhynchophylla, were transient in soil and there was a minor and discontinuous contribution of the seed bank to its seedling emergence. For Quercus mongolica, emerging seedling number was positively correlated with seed density in gaps (R = 0.32, P<0.01), especially in medium and small gaps (<500 m2). Furthermore, under canopies, there was a positive correlation between seedling number and seed density of Acer mono (R = 0.43, P<0.01). Gap formation could promote seedling emergence of two gap-dependent species (i.e., Q. mongolica and A. mono), but the contribution of seed banks to seedlings was below 10% after gap creation. Soil moisture and temperature were the restrictive factors controlling the seedling emergence from seeds in gaps and under canopies, respectively. Thus, the regeneration potential from seed banks is limited after gap formation

Efficient light harvesting of a luminescent solar concentrator using excitation energy transfer from an aggregation-induced emitter

The compromise between light absorption and reabsorption losses limits the potential light conversion efficiency of luminescent solar concentrators (LSCs). Current approaches do not fully address both issues. By using the excitation energy transfer (EET) strategy with a donor chromophore that exhibits aggregation-induced emission (AIE) behaviour, it is shown that both transmission and reabsorption losses can be minimized in a LSC device achieving high light collection and concentration efficiencies. The light harvesting performance of the LSC developed has been characterized using fluorescence quantum yield measurements and Monte Carlo ray tracing simulations. Comparative incident photon conversion efficiency and short-circuit current data based on the LSC coupled to a silicon solar cell provide additional evidence for improved performance

Concentrating Aggregation-Induced Fluorescence in Planar Waveguides: A Proof-of-Principle

The photophysical properties of fluorescent dyes are key determinants in the performance of luminescent solar concentrators (LSCs). First-generation dyes--coumarin, perylenes, and rhodamines--used in LSCs suffer from both concentration quenching in the solid-state and small Stokes shifts which limit the current LSC efficiencies to below theoretical limits. Here we show that fluorophores that exhibit aggregation-induced emission (AIE) are promising materials for LSC applications. Experiments and Monte Carlo simulations show that the optical quantum efficiencies of LSCs with AIE fluorophores are at least comparable to those of LSCs with first-generation dyes as the active materials even without the use of any optical accessories to enhance the trapping efficiency of the LSCs. Our results demonstrate that AIE fluorophores can potentially solve some key limiting properties of first-generation LSC dyes

Emissive Molecular Aggregates and Energy Migration in Luminescent Solar Concentrators

Luminescent solar concentrators (LSCs) are light harvesting devices that are ideally suited to light collection in the urban environment where direct sunlight is often not available. LSCs consist of highly luminescent compounds embedded or coated on a transparent substrate that absorb diffuse or direct solar radiation over a large area. The resulting luminescence is trapped in the waveguide by total internal reflection to the thin edges of the substrate where the concentrated light can be used to improve the performance of photovoltaic devices. The concept of LSCs has been around for several decades, and yet the efficiencies of current devices are still below expectations for commercial viability. There are two primary challenges when designing new chromophores for LSC applications. Reabsorption of dye emission by chromophores within the waveguide is a significant loss mechanism attenuating the light output of LSCs. Concentration quenching, particularly in organic dye systems, restricts the quantity of chromophores that can be incorporated in the waveguide thus limiting the light absorbed by the LSC. Frequently, a compromise between increased light harvesting of the incident light and decreasing emission quantum yield is required for most organic chromophore-based systems due to concentration quenching. The low Stokes shift of common organic dyes used in current LSCs also imposes another optimization problem. Increasing light absorption of LSCs based on organic dyes to achieve efficient light harvesting also enhances reabsorption. Ideally, a design strategy to simultaneously optimize light harvesting, concentration quenching, and reabsorption of LSC chromophores is clearly needed to address the significant losses in LSCs. Over the past few years, research in our group has targeted novel dye structures that address these primary challenges. There is a common perception that dye aggregates are to be avoided in LSCs. It became apparent in our studies that aggregates of chromophores exhibiting aggregation-induced emission (AIE) behavior are attractive candidates for LSC applications. Strategic application of AIE chromophores has led to the development of the first organic-based transparent solar concentrator that harvests UV light as well as the demonstration of reabsorption reduction by taking advantage of energy migration processes between chromophores. Further developments led us to the application of perylene diimides using an energy migration/energy transfer approach. To prevent concentration quenching, a molecularly insulated perylene diimide with bulky substituents attached to the imide positions was designed and synthesized. By combining the insulated perylene diimide with a commercial perylene dye as an energy donor–acceptor emitter pair, detrimental luminescence reabsorption was reduced while achieving a high chromophore concentration for efficient light absorption. This Account reviews and reinspects some of our recent work and the improvements in the field of LSCs

Organic Photovoltaic MaterialsDesign, Synthesis and Scale-Up

This account describes the work of our group in the area of organic photovoltaics in the past six years. The emphasis is on our experiences in the development of the organic materials, their characterization, scale-up and application in devices. We share our insight into the relationship between synthetic methods, molecular properties, bulk material properties and device performance

High performance p-type molecular electron donors for OPV applications via alkylthiophene catenation chromophore extension

The synthesis of key 4-alkyl-substituted 5-(trimethylsilyl)thiophene-2-boronic acid pinacol esters 3 allowed a simplified alkylthiophene catenation process to access bis-, ter-, quater-, and quinquethiophene π-bridges for the synthesis of acceptor-π-bridge-donor- π-bridge-acceptor (A-π-D-π-A) electron donor molecules. Based on the known benzodithiophene-terthiophene-rhodanine (BTR) material, the BXR series of materials, BMR (X = M, monothiophene), BBR (X = B, bithiophene), known BTR (X = T, terthiophene), BQR (X = Q, quaterthiophene), and BPR (X = P(penta), quinquethiophene) were synthesised to examine the influence of chromophore extension on the device performance and stability for OPV applications. The BTxR (x = 4, butyl, and x = 8, octyl) series of materials were synthesised by varying the oligothiophene π-bridge alkyl substituent to examine structure-property relationships in OPV device performance. The devices assembled using electron donors with an extended chromophore (BQR and BPR) are shown to be more thermally stable than the BTR containing devices, with un-optimized efficiencies up to 9.0% PCE. BQR has been incorporated as a secondary donor in ternary blend devices with PTB7-Th resulting in high-performance OPV devices with up to 10.7% PCE