Methods for reliability and uncertainty assessment and for applicability evaluations of classification- and regression-based QSARs

This article provides an overview of methods for reliability assessment of quantitative structure–activity relationship (QSAR) models in the context of regulatory acceptance of human health and environmental QSARs. Useful diagnostic tools and data analytical approaches are highlighted and exemplified. Particular emphasis is given to the question of how to define the applicability borders of a QSAR and how to estimate parameter and prediction uncertainty. The article ends with a discussion regarding QSAR acceptability criteria. This discussion contains a list of recommended acceptability criteria, and we give reference values for important QSAR performance statistics. Finally, we emphasize that rigorous and independent validation of QSARs is an essential step toward their regulatory acceptance and implementation. Key words: QSAR acceptability criteria, QSAR applicability domain, QSAR reliability, QSAR uncertainty estimation, QSAR validation

Challenging the 'New Professionalism': from managerialism to pedagogy?

In recent years there have been changes made to the conceptualisation of continuing professional development for teachers in both the Scottish and English systems of education. These changes have been instigated by successive UK governments (and more recently, by the Scottish Executive), together with the General teaching Council for Scotland (GTCS) and the General Teaching Council for England (GTCE). This paper argues that these changes have not provided a clear rationale for CPD, but instead have introduced tensions between the concept of teacher education and that of training. The need for a less confused understanding of CPD and its purposes is underlined, as is the need for school based approaches to continuing teacher education. Arguably, teacher education must move from technicist emphases to a model which integrates the social processes of change within society and schools with the individual development and empowerment of teachers

Sensitivity of Anopheles gambiae population dynamics to meteo-hydrological variability: a mechanistic approach

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Mechanistic models play an important role in many biological disciplines, and they can effectively contribute to evaluate the spatial-temporal evolution of mosquito populations, in the light of the increasing knowledge of the crucial driving role on vector dynamics played by meteo-climatic features as well as other physical-biological characteristics of the landscape.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>In malaria eco-epidemiology landscape components (atmosphere, water bodies, land use) interact with the epidemiological system (interacting populations of vector, human, and parasite). In the background of the eco-epidemiological approach, a mosquito population model is here proposed to evaluate the sensitivity of <it>An. gambiae </it>s.s. population to some peculiar thermal-pluviometric scenarios. The scenarios are obtained perturbing meteorological time series data referred to four Kenyan sites (Nairobi, Nyabondo, Kibwesi, and Malindi) representing four different eco-epidemiological settings.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Simulations highlight a strong dependence of mosquito population abundance on temperature variation with well-defined site-specific patterns. The upper extreme of thermal perturbation interval (+ 3°C) gives rise to an increase in adult population abundance at Nairobi (+111%) and Nyabondo (+61%), and a decrease at Kibwezi (-2%) and Malindi (-36%). At the lower extreme perturbation (-3°C) is observed a reduction in both immature and adult mosquito population in three sites (Nairobi -74%, Nyabondo -66%, Kibwezi -39%), and an increase in Malindi (+11%). A coherent non-linear pattern of population variation emerges. The maximum rate of variation is +30% population abundance for +1°C of temperature change, but also almost null and negative values are obtained. Mosquitoes are less sensitive to rainfall and both adults and immature populations display a positive quasi-linear response pattern to rainfall variation.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>The non-linear temperature-dependent response is in agreement with the non-linear patterns of temperature-response of the basic bio-demographic processes. This non-linearity makes the hypothesized biological amplification of temperature effects valid only for a limited range of temperatures. As a consequence, no simple extrapolations can be done linking temperature rise with increase in mosquito distribution and abundance, and projections of <it>An. gambiae </it>s.s. populations should be produced only in the light of the local meteo-climatic features as well as other physical and biological characteristics of the landscape.</p

The Polycentric State: New Spaces of Empowerment and Engagement?

New Labour claims to have radically reformed territorial governance structures in the UK by devolving political power to the Celtic nations and London, begetting the most enduring legacy of the first Blair government. More recently it has sought to extend its devolution agenda by embracing city-regionalism and the new localism, ostensibly to create new spaces of empowerment and engagement. But devolution is not the whole story of New Labour’s attitude to power. On the contrary, this article argues that New Labour is a modern Janus because its commitment to devolving power, so clear in principle, is more equivocal in practice. Drawing on these three devolution narratives, the article concludes by assessing the implications for the current debate about relational versus territorial readings of place politics