An Assessment of the Consumption Function for Iran

In this study, the real private consumption model for Iran was estimated by applying yearly data from 1990 to 2018. The ARDL method is used to assess short-term and long-term relationships between private consumption, labor income, interest rate, wealth, and unemployment rate. According to long-term estimates, income and wealth determine the actual consumption in Iran. However, in the short run, current incomes, wealth, real interest rates, and the unemployment rate are the key determinants of private consumption in Iran. The dynamic of the consumption function shows that all the factors of consumption i.e. real disposable income, wealth, and unemployment rate, real interest rate, have a noteworthy effect on aggregate consumption. The minor and significant coefficient of wealth indicates that the consumption decision is weakly affected by wealth. It provides evidence of the validity of AIH for Iran

An Assessment of the Consumption Function for Iran

In this study, the real private consumption model for Iran was estimated by applying yearly data from 1990 to 2018. The ARDL method is used to assess short-term and long-term relationships between private consumption, labor income, interest rate, wealth, and unemployment rate. According to long-term estimates, income and wealth determine the actual consumption in Iran. However, in the short run, current incomes, wealth, real interest rates, and the unemployment rate are the key determinants of private consumption in Iran. The dynamic of the consumption function shows that all the factors of consumption i.e. real disposable income, wealth, and unemployment rate, real interest rate, have a noteworthy effect on aggregate consumption. The minor and significant coefficient of wealth indicates that the consumption decision is weakly affected by wealth. It provides evidence of the validity of AIH for Iran

Determinants of financial inclusion and their impacts on income inequality and poverty

This thesis aims to examine the determinants of financial inclusion and its impact on income inequality and poverty. The first objective of the study is to examine the effect of culture and the gender gap on financial inclusion. The second objective of the study is to investigate role of financial inclusion in moderating remittances on income inequality. Lastly, we evaluate the role of institutional quality in moderating financial inclusion and poverty. There are other studies on the determinants of financial inclusion; however, this study seeks to examine the link between financial inclusion and culture. Financial exclusion is divided into voluntary and involuntary financial exclusion (World Bank, 2014). Voluntary financial exclusion is the segment of the population which decides not to use formal financial institutions because of some cultural barrier. For example, citizens may be excluded by language or by religious teachings. In addition, certain societies may obstruct women to utilise formal financial institutions. Therefore, this study aims to examine the effects of culture and gender gap on financial inclusion. It uses system generalised method of moments (system GMM) on a group of 94 countries during the 2004-2013 period. The findings demonstrate that the impact of the gender gap and culture are positive and significant for financial inclusion when the culture is Catholic and Protestant, whereas for the Muslim culture it shows a negative effect but insignificant. This study also includes the interaction between cultural proxies and the gender gap in influencing financial inclusion. The interaction between cultural proxies and the gender gap for Catholic and Protestant population countries suggest that gender equality tends to significantly increase financial inclusion. By contrast, Muslim population countries have a negative but insignificant coefficient. There are various gaps in existing literature related to financial inclusion, remittances and income inequality. First, evidence on the interaction between financial inclusion and remittances is highly inconclusive. Second, income inequality has not yet been explored with regards to the financial inclusion-remittance link. Third, past studies have failed to investigate the group of 90 countries for the recent period of 2004-2013 with respect to financial inclusion-remittance link. To link and complete the current gaps in the literature, the second objective of study is to investigate the role of financial inclusion in moderating remittances on income inequality. Remittances and financial inclusion have a significant negative effect on income inequality. The estimated results found a non-linear relationship between GDP per capita and income inequality. The interaction between remittance and financial inclusion has a negative relationship with income inequality. Thus, higher remittances increase the level of financial inclusion and hence a reduction in income inequality. The last objective of this thesis is to contribute to the literature by examining the role of institutional quality in the financial inclusion and poverty nexus. This is motivated by the widely accepted view that financial inclusion can contribute to financial growth and poverty reduction. Therefore, to sustain modern development theory we can express that better financial inclusion reduce poverty if there is strong institutional quality. This objective used system GMM in a group of 87 countries during the 2005- 2012 period. The coefficient of the interaction term between financial inclusion and institutional quality is negative and significant, suggesting that stronger institutions further enhance the role of financial inclusion and thus reduce poverty

Evaluating severity–area–frequency (SAF) of seasonal droughts in Bangladesh under climate change scenarios

Drought is considered to be one of the most devastating natural hazards, causing widespread environmental and social damage in many parts of the world. Using standardized precipitation index, this work has assessed changes in the severity–area–frequency (SAF) relationship curve of seasonal droughts in Bangladesh. Changes were estimated for mild, moderate, severe and extreme droughts for the four climatic seasons; winter, pre-monsoon, monsoon, post-monsoon, and for the two major growing seasons; rabi (November to April) and kharif (May to October). Nineteen general circulation models (GCMs) of Couple Model Intercomparison Project 5 were used. The model output statistics approach was used to downscale GCM simulated rainfall for eighteen climate stations in Bangladesh. Changes in the SAF curve were computed for three periods (2010–2039, 2040–2069 and 2070–2099). The uncertainty band of the SAF relationship curve was then computed using the Bayesian bootstrap method at the 95% confidence level. The results reveal that moderate and severe drought categories have the highest return period and are likely to affect the region more than other types of droughts. The kharif season drought was found to be most pronounced and affected significant portions of the country during all return periods and severity categories. Projections also show that monsoon and kharif droughts would increase across Bangladesh in regards of severity and return period. Higher return period droughts were also projected to increase in aerial extent in the middle of this century (2040–2069)