Predictive Autoregressive Models of the Russian Stock Market Using Macroeconomic Variables

This article evaluates the relationship of macroeconomic variables of the domestic market with the stock index on the example of the Moscow exchange and selects forecast specifications based on an integrated auto regression model - the moving average. The methods that have been used are included in integrated auto regression-moving average model with exogenous variables and seasonal component, Box&Jenkins approach, auto-arima in R function, Hyndman & Athanasopoulos approach, and maximum likelihood method. The results demonstrate that the inclusion of external regressors in the one-dimensional ARIMAX model improves its predictive characteristics. Time series of macro-indicators of the domestic market – the consumer price index, the index of the output of goods and services for basic activities are not interrelated with the index of the Moscow exchange, with the exception of the dollar exchange rate. The positive correlation between the Moscow exchange index and macro indicators of the world economy - the S&P stock index, the price of Brent oil, was confirmed. In models with minimal AIC, a rare presence of the MA component was found, which shows that the prevailing dependence of the stock market yield on previous values of the yield (AR component) and thus, better predictability of the yield. It has shown that for stock market forecasting, "manual" selection of the ARIMA model type can give better results (minimum AIC and minimum RMSE) than the built-in auto.arima algorithm in R. It is shown that from a practical point of view, when selecting forecast models, the RMSE criterion is more useful for investors, which measures the standard error of the forecast in points of the stock index

volution of the Concept of Popularity of a Classical Musician: Historical and Cultural Analysis

Music culture plays an important role in historical development of culture. Performers face the problems of finding their place in the world, choosing the trajectory for their personal evolution and professional development and nowadays these issues have become pressing for the professional community of musicians. One of the complex issues researchers need to address is the evolution of the concept of popularity of music performance. Even though the topic of the popularity of the musician, especially in the spectacular genres of performance, has been extensively studied, there are very few works, which focus on the performer of classical music in the context of cultural pragmatics. The study of a significant historical period in the development of European culture from the Ancient World to the present reveals a number of features in the interpretation of the concept of popularity in different historical periods. Complex cultural analysis as the primary method of research was used to investigate the unique features of each period. The study analyzed popularity of the performer of classical music within a particular sociocultural context and resulted in a set of distinct historyspecific concepts of popularity. This paper presents the findings on the evolution of public’s attitude toward musical performance and investigates historical group values determining popularity. It is noted that popularity is a matter of both church and secular music. Classical music performer, intentionally or not, addresses the problem of cultural education of the public and forms their values. At the same time, musicians directly depend on the existing tastes and preferences of their audience. This paradox of popularity has existed through all ages of European music culture. Popularity may take various forms from adoration to hate. In the field of classical music, popularity is achieved by people who have a certain charisma that in terms of attractiveness to the public matters more than professionalism

Experiencia de kazajstán en educación a distancia en educación superior en el campo de la coreografía

The study examines the features of the distance learning system of the university in the field of choreog-raphy training. The purpose of the study is to analyze the Kazakhstan experience of organizing distance learning in higher education in the field of choreography training. As an example, the experience of the [BLINDED] in the distance learning process has been analyzed and practical recommendations on teaching professional disciplines in this field of training have been given. To analyze distance learn-ing, surveys among teachers and students have been conducted. In addition, based on international scientific literature, dance lessons have been analyzed in accordance with COVID-19 restrictions. The disadvantages and advantages of the online learning system for students have been identified based on a questionnaire. The survey involved teachers and students of ballet pedagogy, choreography ped-agogy, choreography directing, ballroom dance pedagogy, as well as undergraduate, graduate, and doctoral students. A total of 20 teachers and 75 students have been interviewed, and the effectiveness of the platforms used in distance learning has been determined. On the basis of available research, the opinion that in the field of choreography pedagogical skills of rising professionals and performers cannot be formed exclusively through distance learning has been substantiatedEl estudio examina las características del sistema de educación a distancia de la universidad en el cam-po de la formación coreográfica. El propósito del estudio es analizar la experiencia de Kazajstán en la organización de la educación a distancia en la educación superior en el campo de la formación en coreografía. Como ejemplo, se ha analizado la experiencia de la [BLINDED] en el proceso de aprendi-zaje a distancia y se han dado recomendaciones prácticas sobre la enseñanza de disciplinas profesio-nales en este campo de formación. Para analizar la educación a distancia se han realizado encuestas entre profesores y alumnos. Además, con base en la literatura científica internacional, las lecciones de baile se han analizado de acuerdo con las restricciones de COVID-19. Las desventajas y ventajas del sistema de aprendizaje en línea para los estudiantes se han identificado a partir de un cuestionario. La encuesta involucró a profesores y estudiantes de pedagogía de ballet, pedagogía de coreografía, dirección de coreografía, pedagogía de baile de salón, así como estudiantes de pregrado, posgrado y doctorado. Se ha entrevistado a un total de 20 profesores y 75 alumnos, y se ha determinado la efectividad de las plataformas utilizadas en la educación a distancia. Sobre la base de la investigación disponible, se ha corroborado la opinión de que en el campo de la coreografía, las habilidades pe-dagógicas de los profesionales e intérpretes en ascenso no pueden formarse exclusivamente a través de la educación a distancia

Primjena monoklonskih protutijela u razvoju imunoenzimnog testa (ELISA) za dijagnosticiranje tuberkuloze goveda.

Three stable strains of hybridoma cells (2H10, 3A8, 1B6) producing monoclonal antibodies (Mab) reacted with Protein Purified Derivative (PPD) Mycobacterium bovis were obtained. They were incapable of binding to PPD M. avium and whole cells M. bovis, M. kansasii, M. scrofulaceum as well as to their soluble and sonicated antigens. PPD M. bovis was attached to the solid phase via Mab which were directed to its protein with a molecular weight of 66 kDa. The diagnostic efficiency of sandwich ELISA was tested as compared with skin test. Blood samples were obtained from 849 cows belonging to farms unaffected and farms affected by tuberculosis. Ninety cows (10.6%) reacted to PPD M. bovis, but among them only 22 cows (2.6%) had a positive ELISA. Average titre of M. bovis specific antibodies detected in serum samples by ELISA was equal to 1:920 – 1:6400. Diagnostic value of ELISA and skin test was determined by autopsy of 12 cows. There were M. bovis specific antibodies at rather high titres in the blood samples of 9 cows which showed positive to skin test. Three cows developed a response to PPD M. bovis but in the blood samples of these animals we failed to detect any specific antibodies. Results of autopsy showed that all cows with positive ELISA and skin test had pathological findings in lungs and lymphatic nodes specific for tuberculosis, but internal organs of cows reacted only to skin test had no alterations. The results of our research testify to the high specificity and efficiency of Mab-based sandwich ELISA in isolating animals infected with tuberculosis and represent an evaluation of the actual epizootic situation.Polučena su tri stabilna soja hibridomskih stanica (2H10, 3A8, 1B6) za proizvodnju monoklonskih protutijela (Mab) koja su reagirala s proteinskim pročišćenim derivatom (PPD) bakterije Mycobacterium bovis. Proizvedena monoklonska protutijela nisu se mogla vezati na PPD vrste M. avium i cijele stanice vrsta M. bovis, M. kansasii i M. scrofulaceum kao ni za njihove topive i ultrazvukom obrađene antigene. PPD vrste M. bovis bio je vezan na čvrstu fazu preko monoklonskih protutijela koja su usmjerena za njen protein molekulske mase 66 kDa. Dijagnostička učinkovitost sendvič imunoenzimnog testa bila je uspoređena s kožnim testom. Krvni uzorci bili su uzeti od 849 krava koje su potjecale iz tuberkulozom zahvaćenih i nezahvaćenih uzgajališta. Devedeset krava (10,6%) reagiralo je na PPD M. bovis, ali su među njima samo 22 (2,6%) bile pozitivne imunoenzimnim testom. Prosječni titar specifičnih protutijela za M. bovis ustanovljen u uzorcima seruma imunoenzimnim testom bio je 1:920 do 1:6400. Dijagnostička vrijednost imunoenzimnog i kožnog testa bila je određena autopsijom 12 krava. Specifična protutijela za M. bovis u visokom titru ustanovljena su u krvnom serumu devet krava koje su bile pozitivne na kožni test. Tri krave su bile pozitivne kožnim testom, ali u njihovim krvnim uzorcima nisu ustanovljena specifična protutijela. Rezultati razudbe pokazali su da je u svih krava s pozitivnim ELISA i kožnim testom, patološki nalaz na plućima i limfnim čvorovima bio specifičan za tuberkulozu. Na unutarnjim organima krava koje su reagirale samo na kožni test nije bilo nikakvih promjena. Rezultati istraživanja potvrđuju visoku specifičnost i učinkovitost sendvič imunoenzimnog testa temeljenog na monoklonskim protutijelima. Test se može rabiti za otkrivanje i izdvajanju tuberkuloznih životinja kao i za prikaz procjene aktualnog epizootiološkog stanja

THE ROLE AND IMPORTANCE OF MODELING IN DEVELOPMENT DESCRIPTIVE SPEECH IN OLDER PRESCHOOL CHILDREN

this article analyzes scientific research on the problem of modeling in the speech development of children. The modern approach to the development of coherent speech of preschoolers in a preschool educational institution using the method of visual modeling in the cognitive activity of children to activate coherent speech and the role of this method for a more complete perception of the surrounding world by the child are considered. The types of modeling used in pedagogical practice are described, as well as the forms of work on the use of visual models in the process of forming coherent speech utterances, in particular, descriptive speech in older preschool age in order to increase the effectiveness of work on the formation of monological speech of children in preschool conditions

Psychophysiological Status and Life Quality in Individuals with Metabolic Syndrome Living in Central Kazakhstan

BACKGROUND: Morbidity rate of circulatory system diseases (CSD) in Kazakhstan continues to grow and the metabolic syndrome (MetS) contributes significantly to cardiovascular risk development. It was known that MetS altered autonomic nervous system (ANS) by decreasing parasympathetic activity and global heart rate variability (HRV), at the same time, the decrease in sympathetic modulation is unclear. Studies investigated associations between anxiety and MetS disorders are rather controversial. Research findings of the MetS influence on health-related quality of life (HRQoL) were also contradictory. The above-mentioned justifies the necessity of research to clarify and deepen the MetS etiology and pathogenesis, as well as to improve its diagnostics efficiency and treatment. AIM: The research goals were to study psychophysiological status and HRQoL in individuals with MetS living in Central Kazakhstan. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Three hundred MetS patients were examined in Karaganda city clinical hospital. Statistical methods and spectral analysis of HRV, simple visual-motor reaction (SVMR), the Spielberger State-Trait Anxiety Inventory, and the Lüscher color test were used. SF-36 questionnaire was used for HRQoL assessment. RESULTS: General decrease in the activity of both sympathetic and parasympathetic branches of ANS was observed in MetS patients. More than half of the examined MetS patients have had a high level of trait anxiety. Most MetS patients have had a low level of the central nervous system (CNS) functional activity. MetS patients are active both in physical and social spheres. Bodily pain syndrome greatly influences MetS patients’ life quality. The patients evaluate their health level as being low. CONCLUSION: Individuals with MetS living in Central Kazakhstan had decreased activity of ANS, prevalence of inhibition processes in CNS, high level of trait anxiety, and bodily pain syndrome affecting life quality

Об одном подходе к выбору начального приближения решения нелинейной краевой задачи для нагруженных дифференциальных уравнений

На основе метода параметризации исследуется нелинейная двухточечная краевая задача для систем нагруженных дифференциальных уравнений. Суть метода параметризации заключается в том, что рассматриваемая задача разбиением заданного интервала точками нагружения и введением дополнительных параметров сводится к эквивалентной нелинейной двухточечной краевой задаче с параметрами. Введение дополнительных параметров позволяет получить начальные условия для неизвестных функций на подынтервалах. При фиксированных значениях параметров решается задача Коши для систем обыкновенных дифференциальных уравнений. Подставляя представление решения задачи Коши в краевые условия и условия непрерывности решения во внутренних точках разбиения интервала, построена система нелинейных алгебраических уравнений относительно введенных параметров. Построенные системы нелинейных алгебраических уравнений являются основой алгоритмов метода параметризации и позволяют найти "хорошие" начальные приближения к решению нелинейной двухточечной краевой задачи для систем нагруженных дифференциальных уравнений. Предложен один из способов к выбору "хорошего" начального приближения для нахождения решения нелинейной краевой задачи. Получены условия существования изолированного решения нелинейной двухточечной краевой задачи для нагруженных дифференциальных уравнений при достаточно малых шагах разбиения

On one algorithm for finding a solution to a two-point boundary value problem for loaded differential equations with impulse effect

A linear two - point boundary value problem for a system of loaded differential equations with impulse effect is investigated. The parameterization method is used to solve the problem. The essence of parameterization method is that segment, where the loaded differential equation is considered, is divided into parts by loading points, and the initial problem is reduced to the boundary value problem with a parameter. The solution to boundary value problem with parameter is defined as a limit of systems sequence, consisting of the pairs of parameter and function. Parameters are defined by a system of linear algebraic equations. System of linear algebraic equations is determined by the matrices of boundary conditions, the system of loaded differential equations, and the conditions of impulse effect. An algorithm for finding the solution to linear two - point boundary value problem for the systems of loaded differential equations with impulse effect is offered. The convergence conditions of the algorithm providing the existence and uniqueness of solution to the considered problem are established. Sufficient conditions for unique solvability of the problem in the terms of initial data are received