Assessment of QEC Forecasts, 1984-90. Quarterly Economic Commentary, Winter 1992/3

On the partial evidence so far available, it seems likely that there was a slight decline in economic activity in the final quarter of 1992. However, the economy had been expanding quite rapidly before the September currency crisis, so that the annual growth rate of real GNP in 1992 is estimated at 2% per cent. The conditions of international uncertainty and very high domestic interest rates, which were responsible for the downturn in late 1992, have persisted for most of the first quarter of 1993. It is thus reasonable to assume that the economy continued to stagnate or decline. The restoration of industrial competitiveness through the devaluation of the Irish pound, the subsequent reduction in domestic interest rates, and the injection of substantial EC capital funds should all help to reverse this decline

Quarterly Economic Commentary, January 1984

The international economic recovery became quite firmly established in 1983, with substantial growth recorded in North America, Japan, and to a lesser extent the UK. Against this background, the decline in the Irish economy was halted, and substantial gains were made in several aspects. The overall growth rate was miniscule at about Y2 per cent, but there was a massive improvement in the balance of payments, a significant increase in industrial output, a marked reduction in the rate of inflation, some slowing down in the growth of unemployment, and a small reduction in tpe budget deficit as a proportion of Gross National Product. It seems likely that 1984 will see a continuation of most of these trends. Gross National Product should increase by about 2 per cent in volume, the current account balance of payments deficit should fall to around £50 million, and the increase in consumer prices should be held to about 8Y2 per cent. However, the indications are that progress will continue to be very slow in relation to the two major problems of unemployment and the public finances. Employment could well stabilise at about its present level and even increase slightly later in the year, but this would still leave unemployment increasing at a rate of some 18,000 per year because of the growth in the labour force. On the assumption of a passive budget, in which both income tax bands and specific rates of excise duty are indexed in line with inflation, it seems probable that there would be very little change in the size of the nominal current budget deficit, although it would be reduced as a proportion of Gross National Product. While neither of these outcomes can be regarded as at all satisfactory, there is little room for manouevre in budgetary strategy. Too determined an attempt to reduce the deficit could impair the expected recovery and increase the rise in unemployment, while trying to reduce unemployment by allowing the deficit to rise would be a short-term expedient which would intensify both problems in the longer term. Probably the most hopeful strategy would be to aim for a slightly lower deficit, while hoping that this and other current forecasts of the rate of economic recovery prove unduly cautious

Export Tourism: Input-Output Multipliers in Ireland - A reply. Quarterly Economic Commentary Special Article, November 1983

In the course of an article on "Export Tourism Input-Output Multipliers for Ireland" in the ESRI Quarterly Economic Commentary of May 1982 Desmond A. G. Norton derived some estimates in respect of tourism activity and drew comparisons between his estimates and those of others including Byrne and Palmer. The following comments are set out in order to indicate sources of these differences

The Evolution of the Rate of Unemployment in Ireland 1962-1983. Quarterly Economic Commentary Special Article, May 1984

For decades an objective of policy in Ireland has been to lower the rate of unemployment - indeed to achieve full employment. Yet instead of falling, the rate of unemployment has increased rather dramatically to record levels. Many possible explanations for this state of affairs have been advanced. One view looks at the demand for labour and points to the slow growth in the world economy and to a failure of real wages to respond sufficiently to the energy price shocks of the 1970s. Job losses in the 1970s and 1980s have been the key source of unemployment according to this view. An alternative interpretation notes the sharp reversal of net emigration during the last decade and a half and attributes the growth in unemployment to a corresponding surge in labour supply at home. According to a third, less plausible perspective, the increase in unemployment is largely a function of an increase in the propensity of those not genuinely seeking work to apply for (increasingly generous) unemployment assistance or benefits or in an increase in the time spent searching for suitable jobs. Probably each of the three factors has played a part in governing the evolution of the rate of unemployment in Ireland over the past two decades, though their relative importance is the subject of much dispute--. In other larger countries, unemployment has also increased sharply. The role of migration there is obviously small, and the explanation is usually shared between the other two factors. For Ireland, however, migration may be a dominant element in the long run providing the link with unemployment conditions in other countries

Dynamic fluid shifts induced by fetal bypass

ObjectiveFluid shifts have been suggested to occur with fetal bypass. The degree or mechanisms behind these volume changes (or location) have not been defined. We characterized the preceding and correlated the findings to plasma vasopressin concentrations, the critical peptide of osmoregulation.MethodsSeventeen ovine fetuses (105–111 days' gestation) were started on bypass and followed 2 hours after bypass. Hemodynamics and volume replacements needed to maintain minimum reservoir volume during bypass and normal physiologic parameters after bypass were recorded. Serial blood samples were collected to assess gas exchange and vasopressin levels. Changes in total tissue water content were measured for several organs and the placenta. Plasma volume, fluid shifts, and osmolarity were calculated.ResultsHematocrit values decreased by 15 minutes of bypass to 28% from 33% and then increased to 34% by 120 minutes after bypass, corresponding to a decreased fetal plasma volume of 79 to 72 mL/kg by 120 minutes after bypass. The majority of volume shifts (approximately 100 mL/kg) occurred during bypass, but additional volume replacements were required after bypass to maintain normal hemodynamics, resulting in overall losses of 0.8 mL · kg−1 · min−1. Losses were not accounted for by placental or organ edema. Vasopressin levels increased dramatically with bypass (39–51.5 pg/mL) and were strongly predicted by increased fetal plasma volumes (R2 = 0.90), whereas osmolarity was not significantly associated with plasma volumes.ConclusionFetal bypass leads to significant fluid shifts that correlate strongly with increasing vasopressin levels (but not changes in osmolarity). The placenta is not the primary site of volume loss. Rehydration of the fetus is necessary after bypass

Recent Changes in Irish Fertility. Quarterly Economic Commentary Special Article, May 1984

The main purpose of this paper is to provide a broad description of fertility trends in Ireland over the last two decades. The analysis investigates in particular whether there are regional (i.e., county) differences in relation to the levels of fertility and how these have changed. In the final part of the paper we discuss the likely future pattern of fertility trends and consider some economic and social implications arising therefrom. The last-mentioned aspect is now a matter of considerable significance since there are indications (from the annual births total) that the general decline in fertility has escalated to such an extent in recent years that the effects may be quite substantial and materialise within a relatively short period of time

The Naas Motorway Bypass - A Cost Benefit Analysis. Quarterly Economic Commentary Special Article, January 1984

The paper examines the Naas Motorway Bypass which cost £16m at 1983 prices. Twelve thousand vehicles a day using the bypass save over 10 minutes between 8 am and 8 pm and 6 minutes at other times. Five thousand vehicles a day using the present route through Naas also benefit by saving 4 minutes due to reduced congestion in the town. In addition to time savings, the bypass reduces accidents and fuel costs. Ninety-one per cent of the benefits accrue in time savings. The internal rate of return on the project is estimated at 20.51 per cent, assuming 2 per cent annual traffic and income growth. The sensitivity tests of the results show that even with zero growth in incomes and traffic for twenty years, a high proportion of leisure time savings with zero value and no increase in the value of fuel savings the project would have an internal rate of return which meets the test discount rate used by the Department of Finance. The environmental aspects of the bypass are positive in terms of noise and smoke and lead pollution reduction. The impact on farm severence and natural amenities on the motorway route has been mitigated by several design features of the bypass

Credible and Actionable Evidence Across Stakeholder Levels of the Cooperative Extension System

This article provides a look at the various levels within the Cooperative Extension System and the use of evidence within these levels. The authors examine the factors associated with credible evidence and the various levels. The impact of factors such as politics, science, stakeholder support, and expectations are discussed. The various levels within Extension are summarized in relation to evidence that is routinely requested or required for each. Lastly, the authors use information directly from Extension directors to provide a framework for the discussion

Trolling in asynchronous computer-mediated communication: From user discussions to academic definitions

Whilst computer-mediated communication (CMC) can benefit users by providing quick and easy communication between those separated by time and space, it can also provide varying degrees of anonymity that may encourage a sense of impunity and freedom from being held accountable for inappropriate online behaviour. As such, CMC is a fertile ground for studying impoliteness, whether it occurs in response to perceived threat (flaming), or as an end in its own right (trolling). Currently, first and secondorder definitions of terms such as im/politeness (Brown and Levinson 1987; Bousfield 2008; Culpeper 2008; Terkourafi 2008), in-civility (Lakoff 2005), rudeness (Beebe 1995, Kienpointner 1997, 2008), and etiquette (Coulmas 1992), are subject to much discussion and debate, yet the CMC phenomenon of trolling is not adequately captured by any of these terms. Following Bousfield (in press), Culpeper (2010) and others, this paper suggests that a definition of trolling should be informed first and foremost by user discussions. Taking examples from a 172-million-word, asynchronous CMC corpus, four interrelated conditions of aggression, deception, disruption, and success are discussed. Finally, a working definition of trolling is presented