Examining conflict management technique sequences in international claims

This study groups third-party conflict management techniques (CMTs) into binding and non-binding approaches to examine whether and how their sequence and, in more detail, changes therein explain the outcome of international issue claims. Third parties can intervene in disputes by providing good offices or mediation; they also engage with more binding approaches such as arbitration and adjudication. While the literature has established a solid understanding of any of these third-party techniques in issue claims, it has mostly treated them in isolation from each other, thereby ignoring the persistent interdependencies that may establish a sequence of CMTs. We address this shortcoming by developing a theoretical argument for and empirically testing the impact of changes in CMT sequences on the outcome of interstate conflicts. Our results indicate that sequences involving a change in CMTs (from binding to non-binding approaches or vice versa) result in more effective outcomes. En el estudio, se agrupan las técnicas de manejo de conflictos de terceros (conflict management techniques, CMT) en enfoques vinculantes y no vinculantes a fin de analizar si su secuencia explica el resultado de los reclamos por problemas internacionales y de qué manera lo hace. Los terceros pueden intervenir en las controversias mediante la interposición de buenos oficios o la mediación y, asimismo participan con enfoques màs vinculantes, como el arbitraje y la adjudicación. Si bien en la literatura se ha establecido una sólida comprensión de cualquiera de estas técnicas de terceros en los reclamos por problemas, en la mayoría de los casos se las ha tratado de forma aislada; por lo tanto, se ignoran las persistentes interdependencias que pueden establecer una secuencia de CMT. Para abordar esta deficiencia, elaboramos un argumento teórico y ponemos a prueba empíricamente el impacto de los cambios en las secuencias de CMT sobre el resultado de los conflictos interestatales. Nuestros resultados indican que las secuencias que implican un cambio en las CMT (de enfoques vinculantes a no vinculantes o viceversa) generan resultados más efectivos. Cette étude regroupe des techniques de gestion des conflits par des tierces parties en approches contraignantes et non contraignantes afin d’examiner si et comment leur séquence explique le résultat des actions internationales engagées. Les tierces parties peuvent intervenir dans les conflits en proposant leurs bons offices ou en assurant une médiation, mais elles s’engagent également dans des approches plus contraignantes telles que l’arbitrage et le jugement. Bien que la littérature ait établi une solide compréhension de ces deux techniques de tierces parties dans les actions engagées, elle les a majoritairement traitées en les séparant l’une de l’autre, ignorant ainsi les interdépendances persistantes qui peuvent établir une séquence de techniques de gestion des conflits. Nous remédions à cette lacune en développant un argument théorique et en mettant empiriquement à l’épreuve l’impact des changements de séquences de techniques de gestion des conflits sur l’issue des conflits interétatiques. Nos conclusions indiquent que les séquences impliquant un changement de techniques de gestion des conflits (en passant d’approches contraignantes à des approches non contraignantes, ou vice versa) entraînent des issues plus efficaces

The impact of climate variability on children: the recruitment of boys and girls by rebel groups

Environmental changes place severe pressure on individuals and societies. Vulnerable segments of the population, especially children, are likely to be first affected. We examine the impact of climate variability on the recruitment of children by rebel groups during conflict. We argue that changes in climate patterns increase both the supply of children willing to work as soldiers and rebel groups’ demand for them. To empirically examine this association, we combine global data on temperature and precipitation shocks with information on child soldier recruitment by rebel groups. Our findings suggest that climate variability shapes child soldier recruitment in systematic and significant ways. Additionally, we show that this relationship is not gender-neutral: it has a strong impact on the level of girls recruited by rebel groups. This research has important implications for our understanding of how climate variability can influence conflict dynamics, how environmental changes may worsen the circumstances of the most vulnerable individuals of conflict-affected societies, and how a non-gender-neutral effect of climate change may materialize.Institutions, Decisions and Collective Behaviou

Public opinion and environmental policy output: a cross-national analysis of energy policies in Europe

This article studies how public opinion is associated with the introduction of renewable energy policies in Europe. While research increasingly seeks to model the link between public opinion and environmental policies, the empirical evidence is largely based on a single case: the US. This limits the generalizability of findings and we argue accordingly for a systematic, quantitative study of how public opinion drives environmental policies in another context. Theoretically, we combine arguments behind the political survival of democratic leaders with electoral success and environmental politics. Ultimately, we suggest that office-seeking leaders introduce policies that seem favorable to the domestic audience; if the public prefers environmental protection, the government introduces such policies in turn. The main contribution of this research is the cross-country empirical analysis, where we combine data on the public's environmental attitudes and renewable energy policy outputs in a European context between 1974 and 2015. We show that as public opinion shifts towards prioritizing the environment, there is a significant and positive effect on the rate of renewable energy policy outputs by governments in Europe. To our knowledge, this is the first systematic, quantitative study of public opinion and environmental policies across a large set of countries, and we demonstrate that the mechanisms behind the introduction of renewable energy policies follow major trends across European states

Do child soldiers influence UN Peacekeeping?

The use of child soldiers in conflicts has received increasing academic attention in recent years. This article examines post-conflict periods to see whether the use of child soldiers mobilizes United Nations peacekeeping operations (UN PKO) in the aftermath of a conflict. Taking into consideration how child soldiers affect conflict and how important their reintegration is to sustainable peace and post-conflict development, we analyse whether the presence of child soldiers in a civil war increases the likelihood of the presence of a PKO. We argue that the UN deems a conflict with child soldiers as a difficult case for conflict resolution, necessitating a response from the international community. This is in line with our empirical results confirming that the use of child soldiers significantly increases the likelihood of peacekeeping. © 2016 Informa UK Limited, trading as Taylor & Francis Group