Risk prediction in adult congenital heart disease

This thesis aimed to establish novel prognostic tools that can be used for the risk stratification of adults with congenital heart disease and/or pulmonary hypertension. Measurements of right and left ventricular volumes and function, main pulmonary artery area, left atrial size and function, right ventricular pressure, pericardial effusion, and right atrial area are important imaging features that can be of prognostic value within specific diagnostic subgroups. Blood biomarkers can be measured in all patients; especially NT-proBNP should be measured at least once in all patients with moderate or complex ACHD. In patients with an elevated NT-proBNP level it is probably useful to obtain annual repeated NT-proBNP measurements and other biomarkers such as hs-TnT and RDW, while patients with a low NT-proBNP level can be reassured and may require less frequent follow-up. Finally, a simple risk calculation tool consisting of six easy to obtain clinical variables and NT-proBNP is proposed, which could be useful to discriminate high- and low-risk patients. The novel biomarkers that are outlined in this thesis are a next step towards better risk stratification of patients with ACHD. This may serve to optimally inform and reassure patients, to aid clinical judgment in determining optimal monitoring and management strategies, to better utilize medical resources and save costs, and ultimately to improve the clinical outcome of these patients

Reply: Letter to the editor: Prognostic value of left atrial size and function in adults with tetralogy of Fallot

_Dear Dr. An,_ We would like to thank you for your interest in our article entitled “Prognostic value of left atrial size and function in adults with tetralogy of Fallot”. We fully agree that accurate prognostication is of paramount importance in these patients.We are pleased to respond to the comments point by point. Indeed, other imaging modalities such as cardiac magnetic resonance (CMR) are probably more accurate than 2D echocardiography in the assessment of LA volumes. We have acknowledged this in our article in the Clinical Implications paragraph, in which we stated “Although other imaging techniques such as CT, CMR or 3D echocardiography could provide a more accurate estimation of LA size, (…)”. We also agree that the cohort of 32 patients that was analyzed in your department is probably too small to demonstrate any association between LA size and cardiovascular events. Future research is therefore certainly needed to evaluate the prognostic value of CMR-derived left atrial volumes in a large prospective cohort of patients with tetralogy of Fallot with a long-term follow-up duration. Nevertheless, the echocardiographic measurements that are investigated in our study can be easily implemented in day-to-day clinical practice and CMR also has its limitations such as higher costs, less availability, and inability to scan patients with intracardiac devices. As described in Tables 1, 67 patients (50%) had received a surgical PVR at the timeof study inclusion. In Table 2,we have described the cardiac function of all patients at the time of study inclusion. It was considered outside the scope of this study to describe cardiac function at the time of surgical PVR, because this was median 7.7 years prior to study inclusion. We hope that this additional information can adequately address the comments raised

Cardiac magnetic resonance findings predicting mortality in patients with pulmonary arterial hypertension: a systematic review and meta-analysis

Objectives: To provide a comprehensive overview of all reported cardiac magnetic resonance (CMR) findings that predict clinical deterioration in pulmonary arterial hypertension (PAH). Methods: MEDLINE and EMBASE electronic databases were systematically searched for longitudinal studies published by April 2015 that reported associations between CMR findings and adverse clinical outcome in PAH. Studies were appraised using previously developed criteria for prognostic studies. Meta-analysis using random effect models was performed for CMR findings investigated by three or more studies. Results: Eight papers (539 patients) investigating 21 different CMR findings were included. Meta-analysis showed that right ventricular (RV) ejection fraction was the strongest predictor of mortality in PAH (pooled HR 1.23 [95 % CI 1.07–1.41], p = 0.003) per 5 % decrease. In addition, RV end-diastolic volume index (po

Prognostic value of serial N-terminal pro-B-type natriuretic peptide measurements in adults with congenital heart disease

Background--A single NT-proBNP (N-terminal pro-B-type natriuretic peptide) measurement is a strong prognostic factor in adult congenital heart disease. This study investigates NT-proBNP profiles within patients with adult congenital heart disease and relates these to cardiovascular events. Methods and Results--In this prospective cohort, 602 patients with adult congenital heart disease were enrolled at the outpatient clinic (years 2011-2013). NT-proBNP was measured at study inclusion in 595 patients (median age 33 [IQR 25-41] years, 58% male, 90% NYHA I) and at subsequent annual visits. The primary end point was defined as death, heart failure, hospitalization, arrhythmia, thromboembolic event, or cardiac intervention; the secondary end point as death or heart failure. Repeated measurements were analyzed using linear mixed models and joint models. During a median follow-up of 4.4 [IQR 3.8-4.8] years, a total of 2424 repeated measurements were collected. Average NT-proBNP increase was 2.9 pmol/L the year before the primary end point (n=199, 34%) and 18.2 pmol/L before the secondary end point (n=58, 10%), compared with 0.3 pmol/L in patients who remained end point-free (P-value for difference in slope 0.006 and < 0.

Matrix metalloproteinases as candidate biomarkers in adults with congenital heart disease

Context Matrix metalloproteinases (MMPs) are associated with diastolic dysfunction and heart failure in acquired heart disease. Objective To investigate the role of MMPs as novel biomarkers in clinically stable adults with congenital heart disease. Methods We measured serum MMP-2, -3, -9 and tissue inhibitor of matrix metalloproteinase-1 in 425 patients and analysed the association with cardiac function and exercise capacity. Results MMP-2 was significantly associated with exercise capacity, ventilatory efficiency and left ventricular deceleration time, independently of age, sex, body surface area and NT-proBNP. Conclusion MMP-2 may provide new information in the clinical evaluation of adults with congenital heart disease

Echocardiographic findings associated with mortality or transplant in patients with pulmonary arterial hypertension: A systematic review and meta-analysis

Background Identification of patients at risk of deterioration is essential to guide clinical management in pulmonary arterial hype

Red cell distribution width in adults with congenital heart disease: A worldwide available and low-cost predictor of cardiovascular events

Background: Red cell distribution width (RDW) is a standard component of the automated blood count, and is of prognostic value in heart failure and coronary heart disease. We investigated the association between RDW and cardiovascular events in patients with adult congenital heart disease (ACHD). Methods and results: In this prospective cohort study, 602 consecutive patients with ACHD who routinely visited the outpatient clinic were enrolled between 2011 and 2013. RDW was measured in fresh venous blood samples at inclusion in 592 patients (median age 33 [IQR 25-41] years, 58% male, 90% NYHA I) and at four annual follow-up visits. During 4.3 [IQR 3.8-4.7] years of follow-up, the primary endpoint (death, heart failure, hospitalization, arrhythmia, thromboembolic events, cardiac intervention) occurred in 196 patients (33%). Median RDW was 13.4 (12.8-14.1)% versus 12.9 (12.5-13.4)% in patients with and without the primary endpoint (P < 0.001). RDW was significantly associated with the endpoint when adjusted for age, sex, clinical risk factors, CRP, and NT-proBNP (HR 1.20; 95% CI 1.06-1.35; P = 0.003). The C-index of the model including RDW was slightly, but significantly (P = 0.005) higher than the model without (0.74, 95% CI 0.70-0.78 versus 0.73, 95% CI 0.69-0.78). Analysis of repeated RDW measurements (n = 2449) did not show an increase in RDW prior to the occurrence of the endpoint. Conclusions: RDW is associated with cardiovascular events in patients with ACHD, independently of age, sex, clinical risk factors, CRP, and NT-proBNP. This readily available biomarker could therefore be considered as an additive biomarker for risk stratification in these patients

Red cell distribution width in adults with congenital heart disease: A worldwide available and low-cost predictor of cardiovascular events

Background: Red cell distribution width (RDW) is a standard component of the automated blood count, and is of prognostic value in heart failure and coronary heart disease. We investigated the association between RDW and cardiovascular events in patients with adult congenital heart disease (ACHD). Methods and results: In this prospective cohort study, 602 consecutive patients with ACHD who routinely visited the outpatient clinic were enrolled between 2011 and 2013. RDW was measured in fresh venous blood samples at inclusion in 592 patients (median age 33 [IQR 25-41] years, 58% male, 90% NYHA I) and at four annual follow-up visits. During 4.3 [IQR 3.8-4.7] years of follow-up, the primary endpoint (death, heart failure, hospitalization, arrhythmia, thromboembolic events, cardiac intervention) occurred in 196 patients (33%). Median RDW was 13.4 (12.8-14.1)% versus 12.9 (12.5-13.4)% in

Prognostic value of left atrial size and function in adults with tetralogy of Fallot

Background: Left atrial (LA) size predicts cardiovascular outcome in chronic heart failure. Its prognostic value in adults with repaired tetralogy of Fallot (ToF) is unknown. This study therefore investigated the association of LA size and function with cardiovascular events in adults with ToF. Methods: Clinically stable adults with ToF who visited the outpatient clinic between 2011 and 2013 underwent echocardiography and were prospectively followed for the occurrence of death, heart failure, hospitalizations, arrhythmia, thromboembolic events, and re-interventions. LA maximal, minimal and pre-A wave volume, area and length were measured on the apical four-chamber view. Total, passive and active emptying fractions were calculated. Results: In total, 134 patients were included (median age 35 [IQR 29-45] years, 65% male, 91% NYHA I). Median follow-up was 40 [IQR 32-47] months. Patients with a dilated LA (≥34mL/m2, 43%) were at higher risk of cardiovascular events (n=33, adjusted HR 2.48 [1.09-5.62], P =0.030). Analysis of LA volumes as continuous variables yielded similar conclusions. In addition, LA length (adjusted HR 2.49 [1.51-4.09], P <0.001), total emptying fraction (adjusted HR 0.96 [0.93-0.99], P =0.008), and active emptying fraction (adjusted HR 0.92 [0.87-0.96], P =0.001) were significantly associated with cardiovascular events. Standardized HRs indicated that LA length was the strongest prognostic marker. In addition, none of the patients with a normally sized LA died or developed heart failure. Conclusions: LA size and function can provide relevant prognostic information in clinically stable adults with repaired ToF. Especially LA length may be a valuable additional tool in the risk stratification of these patients

The Prognostic Value of Soluble ST2 in Adults with Pulmonary Hypertension

Soluble ST2 (sST2) is upregulated in response to myocardial stress and may serve as biomarker in adults with pulmonary hypertension (PH). This prospective cohort study investigated sST2 levels and its association with echocardiographic and hemodynamic measures, and adverse clinical outcomes in adults with PH of different etiologies. sST2 was measured during the diagnostic right heart catheterization for PH, in adult patients enrolled between May 2012 and October 2016. PH due to left heart failure was excluded. The association between sST2 and a primary endpoint composed of death or lung transplantation and a secondary composite endpoint including death, lung transplantation or heart failure, was investigated using Cox regression with adjustment for NT-proBNP. In total 104 patients were included (median age was 59 years, 66% woman, 51% pulmonary arterial hypertension). Median sST2 was 28 [IQR 20–46] ng/mL. Higher sST2 was associated with worse right ventricular dysfunction and higher mean pulmonary and right atrial pressures. Median follow-up was 3.3 [IQR 2.3–4.6] years. The primary and secondary endpoint occurred in 33 (31.7%) and 43 (41.3%) patients, respectively. sST2 was significantly associated with both endpoints (HR per 2-fold higher value 1.53, 95%CI 1.12–2.07, p = 0.007 and 1.45, 95%CI 1.10–1.90, p = 0.008, respectively). However, after adjustment for NT-proBNP, both associations did not reach statistical significance. In conclusions, higher sST2 levels are associated with more severe PH and right ventricular dysfunction and yields prognostic value in adults with PH, although not independently of NT-proBNP