Comparing climatic suitability and niche distances to explain populations responses to extreme climatic events

Habitat suitability calculated from Species Distribution Models (SDMs) has been used to assess population performance, but empirical studies have provided weak or inconclusive support to this approach. Novel approaches measuring population distances to niche centroid and margin in environmental space have been recently proposed to explain population performance, particularly when populations experience exceptional environmental conditions that may place them outside of the species niche. Here, we use data of co-occurring species’ decay, gathered after an extreme drought event occurring in the SE of the Iberian Peninsula which highly affected rich semiarid shrubland communities, to compare the relationship between population decay (mortality and remaining green canopy) and (1) distances between populations’ location and species niche margin and centroid in the environmental space, and (2) climatic suitability estimated from frequently used SDMs (here MaxEnt) considering both the extreme climatic episode and the average reference climatic period before this. We found that both SDMs-derived suitability and distances to species niche properly predict populations performance when considering the reference climatic period; but climatic suitability failed to predict performance considering the extreme climate period. In addition, while distance to niche margins accurately predict both mortality and remaining green canopy responses, centroid distances failed to explain mortality, suggesting that indexes containing information about the position to niche margin (inside or outside) are better to predict binary responses. We conclude that the location of populations in the environmental space is consistent with performance responses to extreme drought. Niche distances appear to be a more efficient approach than the use of climate suitability indices derived from more frequently used SDMs to explain population performance when dealing with environmental conditions that are located outside the species environmental niche. The use of this alternative metrics may be particularly useful when designing conservation measures to mitigate impacts of shifting environmental conditions

El nitrat de les fonts del Lluçanès: efectes sobre les comunitats de briòfits (molses i hepàtiques) = Nitrate in natural springs in Lluçanès region: Effects on the communities of bryophytes (mosses and liverworts)

Semi-natural springs contain complex communities of living organisms that look for constant water supplies. However, an excess of nitrate in the underlying aquifers could affect species richness, especially of those groups that are sensitive to pollution such as bryophytes (mosses and liverworts). In this study, we analyse water characteristics and presence of bryophytes in 93 natural springs in Lluçanès region. We find that although a few species can cope with a relative nitrate excess, most of them do not tolerate it, meaning that species richness decreases in the most polluted sources, showing an adverse effect of water pollution on the biodiversity of bryophyte

Health Impacts of Catastrophic Climate Change: Expert Workshop. Avoid Dangerous Climate Change (AVOID)

Climate change is likely to have serious and significant impacts on human population health. The mechanisms by which climate change may affect health are becoming better understood. Current quantitative methods of estimating future health impacts rely on disease-specific models that primarily describe relationships between mean values of weather variables and health outcomes and do not address the impacts of extreme events or weather disasters. Extreme events have the potential to disrupt community function, which is of concern for decision-makers. Estimating the magnitude and extent of impacts from low probability high impact events is challenging because there is often no analogue that can provide relevant evidence and that take into account the complexity of factors determining future vulnerability and health impacts (the social determinants of health)

Real-Time Cytotoxicity Assay for Rapid and Sensitive Detection of Ricin from Complex Matrices

BACKGROUND: In the context of a potential bioterrorist attack sensitive and fast detection of functionally active toxins such as ricin from complex matrices is necessary to be able to start timely countermeasures. One of the functional detection methods currently available for ricin is the endpoint cytotoxicity assay, which suffers from a number of technical deficits. METHODOLOGY/FINDINGS: This work describes a novel online cytotoxicity assay for the detection of active ricin and Ricinus communis agglutinin, that is based on a real-time cell electronic sensing system and impedance measurement. Characteristic growth parameters of Vero cells were monitored online and used as standardized viability control. Upon incubation with toxin the cell status and the cytotoxic effect were visualized using a characteristic cell index-time profile. For ricin, tested in concentrations of 0.06 ng/mL or above, a concentration-dependent decrease of cell index correlating with cytotoxicity was recorded between 3.5 h and 60 h. For ricin, sensitive detection was determined after 24 h, with an IC50 of 0.4 ng/mL (for agglutinin, an IC50 of 30 ng/mL was observed). Using functionally blocking antibodies, the specificity for ricin and agglutinin was shown. For detection from complex matrices, ricin was spiked into several food matrices, and an IC50 ranging from 5.6 to 200 ng/mL was observed. Additionally, the assay proved to be useful in detecting active ricin in environmental sample materials, as shown for organic fertilizer containing R. communis material. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: The cell-electrode impedance measurement provides a sensitive online detection method for biologically active cytotoxins such as ricin. As the cell status is monitored online, the assay can be standardized more efficiently than previous approaches based on endpoint measurement. More importantly, the real-time cytotoxicity assay provides a fast and easy tool to detect active ricin in complex sample matrices

Medical Therapies for Uterine Fibroids - A Systematic Review and Network Meta-Analysis of Randomised Controlled Trials

BACKGROUND: Uterine fibroids are common, often symptomatic and a third of women need repeated time off work. Consequently 25% to 50% of women with fibroids receive surgical treatment, namely myomectomy or hysterectomy. Hysterectomy is the definitive treatment as fibroids are hormone dependent and frequently recurrent. Medical treatment aims to control symptoms in order to replace or delay surgery. This may improve the outcome of surgery and prevent recurrence. PURPOSE: To determine whether any medical treatment can be recommended in the treatment of women with fibroids about to undergo surgery and in those for whom surgery is not planned based on currently available evidence. STUDY SELECTION: Two authors independently identified randomised controlled trials (RCT) of all pharmacological treatments aimed at the treatment of fibroids from a list of references obtained by formal search of MEDLINE, EMBASE, Cochrane library, Science Citation Index, and ClinicalTrials.gov until December 2013. DATA EXTRACTION: Two authors independently extracted data from identified studies. DATA SYNTHESIS: A Bayesian network meta-analysis was performed following the National Institute for Health and Care Excellence-Decision Support Unit guidelines. Odds ratios, rate ratios, or mean differences with 95% credible intervals (CrI) were calculated. RESULTS AND LIMITATIONS: A total of 75 RCT met the inclusion criteria, 47 of which were included in the network meta-analysis. The overall quality of evidence was very low. The network meta-analysis showed differing results for different outcomes. CONCLUSIONS: There is currently insufficient evidence to recommend any medical treatment in the management of fibroids. Certain treatments have future promise however further, well designed RCTs are needed

Set Theory and Structures

Set-theoretic and category-theoretic foundations represent different perspectives on mathematical subject matter. In particular, category-theoretic language focusses on properties that can be determined up to isomorphism within a category, whereas set theory admits of properties determined by the internal structure of the membership relation. Various objections have been raised against this aspect of set theory in the category-theoretic literature. In this article, we advocate a methodological pluralism concerning the two foundational languages, and provide a theory that fruitfully interrelates a `structural' perspective to a set-theoretic one. We present a set-theoretic system that is able to talk about structures more naturally, and argue that it provides an important perspective on plausibly structural properties such as cardinality. We conclude the language of set theory can provide useful information about the notion of mathematical structure